ROBERTSON’S INDUSTRIAL FLUCTUATION (1915): AN EARLY REAL BUSINESS CYCLE-LIKE APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Bridel
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Marginal Productivity ◽  
Equilibrium Outcome ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Intertemporal Equilibrium ◽  
State Of Rest ◽  
Rbc Models

This paper re-examines Dennis Robertson’s ‘real’ business cycle (RBC) theory outlined in his 1915 A Study in Industrial Fluctuation. Even if, for Robertson, cycles find their origin and respond to oscillations in entrepreneurs’ “rational inducement” to invest, in opposition to RBC models in which every outcome is by construction an equilibrium outcome, Robertson discusses in a traditional way the short-run consequences of such exogenous technological shocks. There are no intertemporal equilibrium phenomena in the sense of the RBC approach; cycle theory is organized, for Robertson, around a Marshallian-defined center of gravity (or long-run equilibrium state of rest). For him, the real forces are represented by the gestation period of investment, but also by investment’s durability, its imperfect divisibility, and, allied with these, its intractability. These features of investment lead to excessive outlays upon capital investment, which ultimately depresses their marginal productivity. The inevitable and rational result is a downturn in the capital goods industries and the onset of a cycle.

THE HOURS WORKED–PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE: IDENTIFICATION IN A FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION SETTING

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1593-1621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliya Lovcha ◽  
Alejandro Perez-Laborda
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fractional Integration ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Sampling Uncertainty ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Hours ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Technology Shock

A recent finding of the SVAR literature is that the response of hours worked to a (positive) technology shock depends on the assumed order of integration of the hours. In this work we relax this assumption, allowing fractional integration in hours and productivity. We find that the sign and magnitude of the estimated responses depend crucially on the identification assumptions employed. Although the responses of hours recovered with short-run (SR) restrictions are positive in all data sets, long-run (LR) identification results in negative, although sometimes not significant responses. We check the validity of these assumptions with the Sims procedure, concluding that both LR and SR are appropriate to recover responses in a fractionally integrated VAR. However, the application of the LR scheme always results in an increase in sampling uncertainty. Results also show that even the negative responses found in the data could still be compatible with real business cycle models.

scholarly journals LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS UNDER TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS: THE ROLE OF SUBSISTENCE CONSUMPTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Sangyup Choi ◽  
Myungkyu Shim
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Labor Market Dynamics ◽  
Short Run

This paper establishes new stylized facts about labor market dynamics in developing economies, which are distinct from those in advanced economies, and then proposes a simple model to explain them. We first show that the response of hours worked and employment to a technology shock—identified by a structural VAR model with either short-run or long-run restrictions—is substantially smaller in developing economies. We then present compelling empirical evidence that several structural factors related to the relevance of subsistence consumption across countries can jointly account for the relative volatility of employment to output and that of consumption to output. We argue that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model augmented with subsistence consumption can explain the several salient features of business cycle fluctuations in developing economies, especially their distinct labor market dynamics under technology shocks.

Technological Effects on Wages and Labour: Classical and Neoclassical Ideas

2012 ◽  
pp. 97-124
Author(s):  
Anastassios D. Karayiannis ◽  
Ioannis A. Katselidis
Keyword(s):  
Technological Progress ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Marginal Productivity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Real Wage Rate ◽  
Productivity Theory ◽  
The One ◽  
The 19Th Century

The introduction of new technology may have significant effects on the level of employment and the real wage rate; effects that have received considerable attention even from the economic thinkers of the classical period. This paper aims to analyze and evaluate the various views and arguments of early classical and neoclassical economists concerning the technological effects on wages and employment. On the one hand, the economists of the early decades of the 19th century (mainly between 1800 and 1840) had recognized and analyzed many of the effects of technology on labourers' welfare. On the other hand, early neoclassical theorists of the period between 1890 and 1935 tried to expand on the classical views and to develop their own theoretical arguments, based on new perceptions like the marginal productivity theory. The main conclusion drawn is that most of early classical and neoclassical economists recognized and specified the temporary adverse effects of new technology on labour (e.g. short-run unemployment), but, at the same time, they argued for the beneficial long-run consequences of technological progress on labourers' welfare.

The Association Between Bank Credit Terms and Conditions and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 247-256
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Anastasiou ◽  
Konstantinos Drakos
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Loan Terms ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract We explored the trajectory of bank loan terms and conditions over the business cycle, where the latter was decomposed into its long-run (trend) and short-run (cyclical) components. We found that deterioration of each business cycle component leads to a significant tightening of credit terms and conditions. We found mixed results concerning the symmetry of impacts of the short and long run components. Symmetry was found between the terms and conditions on loans for small vs. large enterprises. Our findings provide very useful information to policy makers and should be taken into consideration when monetary policies are designed.

A Long View of the UK Business Cycle

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 72-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Charles Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
External Sector

We outline a number of ‘stylised’ facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle fluctuations at all horizons. Money neutrality obtains over the long run but there is clear evidence of non-neutrality over the short run, particularly at the business cycle frequencies. Business cycle relationships with the external sector via the real exchange rate and current account are notable. Postwar, the price level is counter-cyclical and real wages are pro-cyclical, as are nominal interest rates. Modern general equilibrium macroeconomic models capture many of these patterns.

Hotel and Dependency Costs of Residents in Old People's Homes

1978 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bleddyn Davies ◽  
Martin R. J. Knapp
Keyword(s):  
Residential Care ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Self Care ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Unit Costs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Average Unit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Old People's Homes

AbstractA comparison of costs to the organization of alternative forms of care requires estimates for similar types of client. The degree of dependency is the main characteristic in which comparability is necessary with regard to services for the aged. This paper presents estimates of the costs incurred in providing residential care for clients of four degrees of incapacity for self-care – the capacity implicit in Bevan's residential hotel model of the old people's home, and three progressively more severe states of dependency. The estimates are for two cost concepts – average (unit) costs and marginal costs (the cost of caring for an additional person). The paper also estimates both long-run costs (costs that it is appropriate to take into account in decisions in which capital investment in new plant is being considered), and short-run costs (costs that it is appropriate to consider when the issue is the allocation of existing capacity between client groups). It also examines the consequences of the size of the home with regard to costs. Inter alia the paper shows:(a) that the size of home beyond which costs do not fall with scale provides for as many as fifty places (equivalent to an average daily census of forty-six residents); and(b) that, although the dependency components of costs are much smaller than the hotel components, dependency costs are large enough for it to be important to base comparisons of alternative forms of care on estimates of costs for clients which are comparable with respect to dependency.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

Fluctuations and Rigidities in Local Labor Markets. Part 1: Theory and Evidence

1983 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
G L Clark
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Local Labor Markets ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Us Cities

Cyclical sensitivity in employment, wages, and hours worked are explored with reference to three industries and eleven US cities over the period 1972–1980. Conventional neoclassical discrete-exchange models of the labor market are shown to be inadequate because of marked rigidities in the patterns of short-run adjustment. Money wages are very stable, being dominated by a long-run trend, and firms tend to adjust hours worked and only then employment in the short run. There are, however, significant interregional variations in these patterns within the same industry. Spectral analysis and tests for periodicities in the patterns of residuals derived from trend-line estimates of money wages confirm a supposition that urban Phillips curves do not exist. The evidence supports the implicit notion of contract theory that continuous employer-worker relationships exist over the business cycle. The question of how useful, in general, this theory might be is left open for the present.

scholarly journals Do Human Capital Investment and Technological Innovation Have a Permanent Effect on Population Health? An Asymmetric Analysis of BRICS Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang-Gao Hu ◽  
Li-Peng Yao
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Health ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Human Capital Investment ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the asymmetric impact of human capital investment, and technological innovation on population health from the years spanning from 1991 to 2019, by using a panel of the BRICS countries. For this purpose, we have employed the PMG panel NARDL approach, which captures the long-run and short-run dynamics of the concerned variables. The empirical results show that human capital investment and technological innovation indeed happen to exert asymmetric effects on the dynamics of health in BRICS countries. Findings also reveal that increased human capital investment and technological innovation have positive effects on health, while the deceased human capital investment and technological innovation tend to have negative effects on population health in the long run. Based on these revelations, some policy recommendations have been proposed for BRICS economies.

scholarly journals Nexus between China-Pak Business Cycle Synchronization and Human Development in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol Volume 4 (Issue 3) ◽  
pp. 445-468
Author(s):  
Ali Abbas ◽  
Dr. Zahid Pervaiz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study has examined the potential impact of China-Pak business cycle synchronization on human development in Pakistan. Data covered the time span of 1975-2017. Other independent variables include inflation, GDP per capita, external debt and FDI. Results of unit root test showed that all variables were stationary with mixture of level and first difference. F-bounds test confirmed the presence of long run relationship among the variables. ARDL technique was applied to obtain long run coefficients. The study found that FDI and GDP per capita had positive and significant impact on human development while China-Pak business cycle synchronization, inflation and external debt had negative and significant relationship with human development in Pakistan. Results showed the value of error correction term -0.16 with 1 percent level of significance which confirmed the presence of short run equilibrium in the model. All independent variables had significant relationship with human development in the short run. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests showed that parameters of the model were stable. The study suggested that government should focus critically China-Pak business cycle synchronization to uplift human development in Pakistan for which domestic production should be promoted to facilitate domestic producers that might be helpful to improve employment level which finally can raise human development. Control on inflation is significant for the sake of human development. Policy makers should take steps for improvement in GDP per capita and FDI to encourage human development in Pakistan.

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