Moral foundations and financial performance: the effect of moral cues during times of earnings uncertainty

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether cues of morality can mitigate stock sell-offs in the face of earnings uncertainty prior to earnings conference calls and draws on moral foundations theory to study the effect of universal moral cues (harm/care and fairness/reciprocity rhetoric) and primarily conservative moral cues (ingroup/loyalty, authority/respect and purity/sanctity rhetoric) on market performance. Design/methodology/approach The study relies on a longitudinal data set of 1,920 firm-quarter observations corresponding to calls held by firms listed on the S&P 500 in 2015 and relies on computer-assisted-text-analysis and event-study methodology to test hypotheses. Findings The results suggest that cues of universal moral foundations have a mitigating effect on stock sell-offs and are able to create firm value; while cues primarily conservative moral foundations are not found to have an effect on market performance. Originality/value This investigation highlights why earnings conference calls may serve as a valuable tool for communicating a firm’s moral inclination and why universal morality may appeal to a wider range of shareholders than primarily conservative morality.

Director Industry Expertise and Voluntary Corporate Disclosure

We examine if firms with directors with related industry expertise (DRIs), or directors that are supply chain partners, exhibit a greater propensity to forecast earnings, and improve the specificity and accuracy of forecasts. Using instrumental variables to mitigate endogeneity, we find that DRIs and supply chain partners possess unique insights which improve managerial forecasts especially when there is greater earnings uncertainty (innovations along the supply chain, poor performance, operating in volatile industries). We use director deaths as exogenous shocks to board composition and confirm results. Results indicate that DRIs play an informational role in enhancing voluntary disclosures and improving corporate transparency.

The Higher Moments of Future Earnings

We evaluate whether reported accounting numbers are informative about earnings uncertainty and whether earnings uncertainty is priced. We use quantile regressions to forecast the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of future earnings. These three moments are important measures of earnings uncertainty because they reflect the size of the average deviation from expected earnings and the amount of extreme upside potential, extreme downside risk or both. We develop a novel approach for evaluating the reliability of our forecasts and we show that they are reliable. We also document that: (1) equity prices are increasing (decreasing) in the standard deviation and skewness (kurtosis) of lead return on equity and (2) credit spreads are increasing (decreasing) in the standard deviation and kurtosis (skewness) of lead return on assets. Our results indicate that historical financial statements are informative about earnings uncertainty and that earnings uncertainty is priced.

The Effect of Firm Life Cycle on the Relationship between R&D Expenditures and Future Performance, Earnings Uncertainty, and Sustainable Growth

R&D investment can reduce costs through efficient production technology, which has a positive (+) impact on future performance. On the other hand, R&D investment has uncertainty due to characteristics such as time lag, high cost and non-appropriability. We examine whether the effects of R&D expenditures on future performance and earnings uncertainty are different according to firm life cycle, which reflects the differences in the environment, circumstances, and strategy of the firm. Investors assess sustainable growth potential of the enterprise in the capital market, reflecting the future performance and the uncertainty of the firm. This implies that R&D investment can affect the capital market through investors’ future expectations for sustainable growth of the company. We also examine the differential effects of R&D expenditures on market response by the firm life cycle. The test results show that firm life cycle differentially affects the relation between R&D expenditures and future performance and uncertainty. Further, the market response varies over the firm life cycle. Our results provide suggestions that R&D investments should be made properly considering the environment and circumstances of the firm. The finding that R&D expenditures differently affect future performance, uncertainty, and sustainable growth potential according to the firm life cycle is expected to help managers make decisions about R&D investment.

Making investors feel good during earnings conference calls: The effect of warm-glow rhetoric

In recent years, earnings conference calls have become a popular disclosure tool through which top managers can provide more information to the market regarding the quarterly earnings of their firms. Although some research has indicated that the tone of earnings conference calls is crucial in mitigating investors’ negative reactions to earnings surprises, relatively little is still known about other rhetorical tactics that may be available for managers to create value during times of heightened earnings uncertainty. This article contends that warm-glow rhetoric may be another way to mitigate investors’ negative reactions to earnings surprises, as warm-glow theory suggests that individuals are willing to make suboptimal economic choices when they receive warm-glow payouts. Hypotheses drawing on warm-glow theory and the incremental useful information perspective are developed and tested using computer-assisted text analysis (CATA) and event study methodology on a longitudinal sample of 1920 calls, and it is suggested that warm-glow rhetoric positively moderates the relationship between earnings surprises and financial performance (as measured through cumulated abnormal returns). The findings illustrate how the warm-glow effect can be used as an unconventional, yet effective tactic with which managers can create market value. A discussion of the findings and their implications for theory and practice concludes the study.

COMMENTARY: Volatility Forecasting

This paper provides a perspective on volatility forecasting. The basic idea is that a number of factors are leading to volatility having a lower baseline expected value than in prior years. These factors include lower earnings uncertainty, greater market efficiency, better market-marking, and the fact that volatility trading itself tends to reduce volatility.