Fluctuating Lake Levels in Rift Basins and its Impact on Extensional Tectonics

<p>The feedback between climate driven processes; weathering, erosion, sediment transport, and deposition, and extensional tectonics is limited to a few studies (Burov and Cloething, 1997; Burov and Poliakov, 2001; Bialas and Buck, 2009; Theunissen and Huismans, 2019; Andrés-Martínez et al., 2019) despite these processes having been shown to impact the stress state and deformation along active orogens (Koons, 1989; Molnar and England, 1990; Avouac and Burov, 1996; Willett, 1999). Here we utilize a fully coupled landscape evolution and thermomechanical extensional model to investigate the potential impact on faulting and extension due to lake loading changes driven by changes in climate on processional timescales. Fault analyses focusing on heave, throw, and magnitude of dip on faults generated within each model are used to characterize individual faults response to stress changes and rift basin evolution. Preliminary results indicate that fluctuations in lake levels in response to climate change may impact the lithospheric stress state by changing both fault and basin geometries within an extensional basin.</p>

The spatial–temporal total friction coefficient of the fault viewed from the perspective of seismo-electromagnetic theory

Recently, it has been shown theoretically how the lithospheric stress changes could be linked with magnetic anomalies, frequencies, spatial distribution and the magnetic-moment magnitude relation using the electrification of microfractures in the semibrittle–plastic rock regime (Venegas-Aravena et al., 2019). However, this seismo-electromagnetic theory has not been connected with the fault's properties in order to be linked with the onset of the seismic rupture process itself. In this work we provide a simple theoretical approach to two of the key parameters for seismic ruptures which are the friction coefficient and the stress drop. We use sigmoidal functions to model the stress changes in the nonelastic regime within the lithosphere. We determine the temporal changes in frictional properties of faults. We also use a long-term friction coefficient approximation that depends on the fault dip angle and four additional parameters that weigh the first and second stress derivative, the spatial distribution of the nonconstant stress changes, and the stress drop. We found that the friction coefficient is not constant in time and evolves prior to and after the earthquake occurrence regardless of the (nonzero) weight used. When we use a dip angle close to 30∘ and the contribution of the second derivative is more significant than that of the first derivative, the friction coefficient increases prior to the earthquake. During the earthquake event the friction drops. Finally, the friction coefficient increases and decreases again after the earthquake occurrence. It is important to mention that, when there is no contribution of stress changes in the semibrittle–plastic regime, no changes are expected in the friction coefficient.

Rikitake Law, relating precursor time and earthquake magnitude, confirmed by Swarm satellite data

<p>Rikitake [1987] studied different types of ground earthquake precursors and presented an empirical law (for what he called “precursors of the 1st kind”) expressing a linear relationship between the logarithm of the anomaly precursor time and the earthquake magnitude. To look for possible in-situ ionospheric precursors of large (M5.5+) earthquakes, here we analyse a long-term time series data from the three-satellite Swarm constellation, in particular electron density and magnetic field data. We define the anomalies statistically in the whole space-time interval of interest and use a superposed epoch approach to study the possible relation with the earthquakes. We find some clear concentrations of electron density and magnetic anomalies from several months to a few days before the earthquake occurrences. Such anomaly clustering is, in general, statistically significant with respect to homogeneous random simulations, supporting a coupling of the lithosphere with the above atmosphere and ionosphere during the preparation phase of earthquakes. Finally, by investigating different earthquake magnitude ranges, we confirm the Rikitake empirical law between ionospheric anomaly precursor time and earthquake magnitude. Our work represents the first time that this empirical law has been confirmed for satellite data. We also explain this empirical law with a diffusion model of lithospheric stress.</p>

The spatial-temporal total friction coefficient of the fault viewed from the seismo-electromagnetic theory

Recently, it has been shown theoretically how the lithospheric stress changes could be linked with magnetic anomalies, frequencies, spatial distribution and the magnetic-moment magnitude relation using the electrification of microfractures in the semi brittle-plastic rock regimen [Venegas-Aravena et al. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 19, 1639–1651 (2019)]. However, this Seismo-electromagnetic Theory still has not shown any relation, approach or changes in the fault's properties in order to be linked with the beginning of seismic rupture process itself. In this work we show the first and simple theoretical approach to one of the key parameters for seismic ruptures as is the friction coefficient and the stress drop. We use sigmoidal stress changes in the non-elastic regimen within lithosphere described before to figure out the temporal changes in frictional properties of faults. We also use a long term friction coefficient approximation that can depend on the fault dip angle, four parameters that weight the first and second stress derivative, the spatial distribution of the non-constant stress changes and the stress drop. It is found that the friction coefficient is not constant in time and evolve previous and after the earthquake occurs regardless of the (non-zero) weight used. When we use a dip angle close to 30 degrees and the contribution of the second derivative is more significant than the first derivative, the friction coefficient increase previous the earthquake. Then, the earthquake occurs and the friction drop. Finally, the friction coefficient increases and decreases after the earthquake. When there is no contribution of stress changes in the semi brittle-plastic regimen, no changes are expected in the friction coefficient.

Effects of upper mantle heterogeneities on the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography

The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. In this study, we analyze the influence of the thermal and density structure of the upper mantle on the lithospheric stress field and topography. We use a 3-D lithosphere–asthenosphere numerical model with power-law rheology, coupled to a spectral mantle flow code at 300 km depth. Our results are validated against the World Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observation-based residual topography. We derive the upper mantle thermal structure from either a heat flow model combined with a seafloor age model (TM1) or a global S-wave velocity model (TM2). We show that lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km have a limited influence on the modeled horizontal stress field as opposed to the resulting dynamic topography that appears more sensitive to such heterogeneities. The modeled stress field directions, using only the mantle heterogeneities below 300 km, are not perturbed much when the effects of lithosphere and crust above 300 km are added. In contrast, modeled stress magnitudes and dynamic topography are to a greater extent controlled by the upper mantle density structure. After correction for the chemical depletion of continents, the TM2 model leads to a much better fit with the observed residual topography giving a good correlation of 0.51 in continents, but this correction leads to no significant improvement of the fit between the WSM2016 and the resulting lithosphere stresses. In continental regions with abundant heat flow data, TM1 results in relatively small angular misfits. For example, in western Europe the misfit between the modeled and observation-based stress is 18.3°. Our findings emphasize that the relative contributions coming from shallow and deep mantle dynamic forces are quite different for the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography.