Echo state network model for analyzing solar-wind effects on the AU and AL indices

The properties of the auroral electrojets are examined on the basis of a trained machine-learning model. The relationships between solar-wind parameters and the AU and AL indices are modeled with an echo state network (ESN), a kind of recurrent neural network. We can consider this trained ESN model to represent nonlinear effects of the solar-wind inputs on the auroral electrojets. To identify the properties of auroral electrojets, we obtain various synthetic AU and AL data by using various artificial inputs with the trained ESN. The analyses of various synthetic data show that the AU and AL indices are mainly controlled by the solar-wind speed in addition to Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) as suggested by the literature. The results also indicate that the solar-wind density effect is emphasized when solar-wind speed is high and when IMF Bz is near zero. This suggests some nonlinear effects of the solar-wind density.

Virtual sounding of solar-wind effects on the AU and AL indices based on an echo state network model

The properties of the auroral electrojets are examined on the basis of a trained machine learning model. The relationships between solar-wind parameters and the AU and AL indices are modeled with an echo state network (ESN), a kind of recurrent neural network. We can consider this trained ESN model to represent nonlinear effects of the solar-wind inputs on the auroral electrojets. To identify the properties of auroral electrojets, we obtain various synthetic AU and AL data by using various artificial inputs with the trained ESN. The analyses of various synthetic data show that the AU and AL indices are mainly controlled by the solar-wind speed in addition to Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) as suggested by the literature. The results also indicate that the solar-wind density effect is emphasized when solar-wind speed is high and when IMF Bz is near zero. This suggests some nonlinear effects of the solar-wind density.

MHD simulations of magnetospheric response to a strong solar wind density pulse

<p>On 16-17 June 2012, an interplanetary coronal mass ejection with an extremely high solar wind density (~100 cm<sup>-3</sup>) and mostly strong northward (or eastward) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) interacted with the Earth’s magnetosphere. We have simulated this event using global MHD models. We study the magnetospheric response to two solar wind discontinuities. The first is characterized by a fast drop of the solar wind dynamic pressure resulting in rapid magnetospheric expansion. The second is a northward IMF turning which causes reconfiguration of the magnetospheric-ionospheric currents. We discuss variations of the magnetopause position and locations of the magnetopause reconnection in response to the solar wind variations. In the second part of our presentation, we present simulation results for the forthcoming SMILE (Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer) mission. SMILE is scheduled for launch in 2024. We produce two-dimensional images that derive from the MHD results of the expected X-ray emission as observed by the SMILE Soft X-ray Imager (SXI). We discuss how SMILE observations may help to study events like the one presented in this work.</p>

A neural network-based mid-term prognosis of geomagnetic storms that uses pre-storm effects related to current sheets and magnetic islands

<p>Mid-term prognoses of geomagnetic storms require an improvement since theу are known to have rather low accuracy which does not exceed 40% in solar minimum. We claim that the problem lies in the approach. Current mid-term forecasts are typically built using the same paradigm as short-term ones and suggest an analysis of the solar wind conditions typical for geomagnetic storms. According to this approach, there is a 20-60 minute delay between the arrival of a geoeffective flow/stream to L1 and the arrival of the signal from the spacecraft to Earth, which gives a necessary advance time for a short-term prognosis. For the mid-term forecast with an advance time from 3 hours to 3 days, this is not enough. Therefore, we have suggested finding precursors of geomagnetic storms observed in the solar wind. Such precursors are variations in the solar wind density and the interplanetary magnetic field in the ULF range associated with crossings of magnetic cavities in front of the arriving geoeffective high-speed streams and flows (Khabarova et al., 2015, 2016, 2018; Adhikari et al., 2019). Despite some preliminary studies have shown that this might be a perspective way to create a mid-term prognosis (Khabarova 2007; Khabarova & Yermolaev, 2007), the problem of automatization of the prognosis remained unsolved.</p>

Observing solar wind turbulence in the corona with ground-based radio telescopes

<p>When point-like galactic and extragalactic radio sources are observed through the solar corona by ground-based radio telescopes, plasma density fluctuations in the turbulent solar wind scatter these photons, leading to an observed broadening and/or elongation of such sources. By observing this broadening for several sources, over several days, we can get information about e.g. the wavenumber and radial dependence of solar wind density fluctuations at very small scales (~30m - 8km) inside the Alfven radius, thereby capturing details of the turbulence dissipation range. Here, we present very initial results of such a study with the MeerKAT radio telescope in South Africa (being, of course, a precursor to the much larger Square Kilometer Array, SKA), discuss the preliminary results, and compare these with theoretical estimates and previous observations.</p>

Deriving CME volume and density from remote sensing data

<p>Using combined STEREO-SOHO white-light data, we present a method to determine the volume and density of a coronal mass ejection (CME) by applying the graduated cylindrical shell model (GCS) and deprojected mass derivation. Under the assumption that the CME  mass is roughly equally distributed within a specific volume, we expand the CME self-similarly and calculate the CME density for distances close to the Sun (15–30 Rs) and at 1 AU. The procedure is applied on a sample of 29 well-observed CMEs and compared to their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs). Specific trends are derived comparing calculated and in-situ measured proton densities at 1 AU, though large uncertainties are revealed due to the unknown mass and geometry evolution: i) a moderate correlation for the magnetic structure having a mass that stays rather constant and ii) a weak correlation for the sheath density by assuming the sheath region is an extra mass - as expected for a mass pile-up process - that is in its amount comparable to the initial CME deprojected mass. High correlations are derived between in-situ measured sheath density and the solar wind density and solar wind speed as measured 24 hours ahead of the arrival of the disturbance. This gives additional confirmation that the sheath-plasma indeed stems from piled-up solar wind material. While the CME interplanetary propagation speed is not related to the sheath density, the size of the CME may play some role in how much material is piled up.</p>

A space hurricane over the Earth’s polar ionosphere

In Earth’s low atmosphere, hurricanes are destructive due to their great size, strong spiral winds with shears, and intense rain/precipitation. However, disturbances resembling hurricanes have not been detected in Earth’s upper atmosphere. Here, we report a long-lasting space hurricane in the polar ionosphere and magnetosphere during low solar and otherwise low geomagnetic activity. This hurricane shows strong circular horizontal plasma flow with shears, a nearly zero-flow center, and a coincident cyclone-shaped aurora caused by strong electron precipitation associated with intense upward magnetic field-aligned currents. Near the center, precipitating electrons were substantially accelerated to ~10 keV. The hurricane imparted large energy and momentum deposition into the ionosphere despite otherwise extremely quiet conditions. The observations and simulations reveal that the space hurricane is generated by steady high-latitude lobe magnetic reconnection and current continuity during a several hour period of northward interplanetary magnetic field and very low solar wind density and speed.

CLASSIFICATION OF MAGNETOSPHERIC RESPONSES TO INTERACTION WITH DIAMAGNETIC STRUCTURES OF SLOW SOLAR WIND

We propose a possible classification of the responses of the magnetosphere to the interaction with diamagnetic structures (DS), which form the basis of the slow solar wind. The main determinants of the classification are the value and orientation of the vertical component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the solar wind density N. We have identified three types of magnetospheric responses. Type 1 has two subtypes whose main difference is the presence or absence of auroras on the day side of the magnetosphere. Within an hour before DS arrival, Bz has a positive value (up to 12 nT) or fluctuates about 0 in the range from –1 to +1 nT. For both subtypes, the duration of substorm disturbances approximately coincides with the duration of DS, and their intensity does not exceed AE~500 nT. Type 2 is characterized by the fact that before the contact with DS positive IMF Bz (0–10 nT) is recorded for an hour, and at the interface of DS a rapid (≤2 min) change in the orientation of the IMF vertical component from north to south occurs. For type 3, Bz within an hour before the contact with DS is negative (from –10 to 0 nT). We address the problem of DS energy transfer to the magnetosphere.