Numerical Analysis of Evacuation Start in Pangandaran

Tsunami evacuations plan should consider the behavior of local people. In this study tsunami evacuation start was analyzed using tsunami evacuation simulation consist of evacuee generation and evacuee behavior model. Pangandaran west beach was selected as the target area due to its popularity as a tourist spot and fishery activities in West Java. Evacuation simulations were conducted using 500 evacuations agents with tsunami shelter and grand mosques as goal for the safer place. A total of six evacuation scenarios were made using a different set of evacuation triggers parameter value with the combination of influence weight and effective range. The simulation result indicates that the influence weight which made 57% of people start evacuation immediately after the earthquake happened showed an instantaneous evacuation. Simulation result that was using lower influence weight and lower exposure range showed a more gradual tsunami evacuation. The simulation gave promising results that Pangandaran people could be safely evacuating if they raise their awareness and preparedness. The low-cost simulations that were used in this study provide an insight into the behaviors of Indonesians during disaster evacuation and might use as support for tsunami evacuation planning. However, to produce more satisfactory result we need to conduct field survey and tsunami drill to gain more information of people behavior during tsunami evacuation.

Evacuation Shelter Decision Method Considering Non-Cooperative Evacuee Behavior to Support the Disaster Weak

In disaster situations, special support for the disaster weak are crucial to keep them safe. Common evacuation strategies guide individuals to the shelters closest to their present locations. If evacuees are unevenly distributed across areas, some shelters will not be able to accommodate all arriving evacuees due to the limited capacity of shelters. To tackle this, the existing method decides the destinations for each evacuee considering congestion in disaster areas. However, this method does not consider the disaster weak and can be burdensome for them. Giving that the priority to the disaster weak for shelter decision would be effective to lessen burdens for them, but not all evacuees follow the guidance. When a shelter accepts arriving evacuees unconditionally, some evacuees are rejected, causing a delay in evacuation. If the disaster weak are rejected, the delay will be increased. In this paper, we propose two evacuation shelter decision methods considering the capacity of shelters, the disaster weak, and evacuees’ selfish behavior to realize quick evacuation for the disaster weak: (1) Fixed-rate Reduction Method (FRM), which reduces the assignment number of evacuees less than the capacity at the same percentage to all shelters. (2) Simulation-based Reduction Method (SRM), which reduces the assignment number to shelters that will be crowded based on simulation of an evacuation scenario. Then, these methods decide the destinations for evacuees, with the priority given to the disaster weak. To evaluate the efficiency of the proposed methods, we conducted multi-agent simulation assuming the scenario of evacuation of 30,000 visitors for the Gion Festival including the disaster weak. Through the simulation, we compared our methods with conventional methods including the nearest shelter selection method and the exiting method. As a result, our methods can reduce evacuation time of the disaster weak compared to conventional methods with sufficient cooperation by evacuees.

Multi-Agent Simulation of Emergency Evacuation on the Sidewalk

Transportation evacuation study has become a research focus in recent years. This paper deals with emergency evacuation on the sidewalk using agent-based simulation. The current study develops a traffic simulator within NetLogo, an agent-based environment. Two sub-models are proposed including facility sub-model to describe global path planning of evacuee and evacuee sub-model to describe the evacuee behavior. We conducted simulations to investigate the effect of generation position of evacuees and the proportion of choosing bus on evacuation through a case study. Simulation results indicate that the proposed model can well address the interaction among evacuees with different evacuation modes, and if evacuees choosing bus evacuate near bus station and evacuees choosing walk evacuate away from bus station, then average walking time of evacuees and maximum density in statistical area are relatively small.

Evacuation Planning and Spatial Decision Making

Issues concerning the development of Spatial Decision Systems for evacuation planning include realistic modelling of evacuee behavior, decision-making processes that take place during an evacuation, logistics, generating realistic scenarios, validation, technology development and trends for the future. These issues are discussed with reference to the development of a prototype system called CEMPS, which integrates simulation and GIS technology for emergency planning.