Trends in Smoking Prevalence and Intensity between 2010 and 2018: Implications for Tobacco Control in China

Background: China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of cigarettes. Since 2010, the Chinese government has implemented many policies to combat the tobacco epidemic, yet little is known about their overall impacts. This study aims to investigate the trends in smoking prevalence and intensity between 2010 and 2018. Methods: We use five waves of data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), a nationally representative survey, to examine the trends in smoking prevalence and intensity. We use the chi-square test and t-test to examine differences across waves. Binary logistic regressions and linear regressions are applied to examine the association between smoking behaviors and risk factors. Results: The current smoking prevalence dropped from 30.30% in 2010 (90% CI 29.47–31.31) to 28.69% (90% CI 27.69–29.69) in 2018. As for smoking intensity, the average daily cigarettes consumption decreased steadily from 16.96 cigarettes (90% CI 16.55–17.36) in 2010 to 15.12 cigarettes (90% CI 15.07–15.94) in 2018. Smoking risk factors for men included marriage status, education level, employment status, alcohol consumption, and physical activities. The smoking risk was higher for women with a lower education level, lower household income, unemployment status, and alcohol consumption behavior. Conclusions: Our study shows declined trends in both smoking prevalence and intensity between 2010 and 2018, suggesting some positive progress in tobacco control in China. Nonetheless, to achieve the goal of reducing smoking prevalence among people aged 15 and above to less than 20% by 2030, the Chinese government needs to take stronger anti-tobacco measures.

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Behavior in Israel: Findings from a National Study of Adults (2002–2017)

Tobacco taxation and price policies are considered the most effective for lowering demand for tobacco products. While this statement is based on research from numerous countries, scant evidence exists on this topic for Israel. Accordingly, we assessed the association between cigarette prices and smoking prevalence and intensity from a national sample of adults in Israel (2002–2017). Data on smoking behavior were derived from the Israeli Knowledge Attitudes and Practices (KAP) survey, a repeated cross-sectional survey. Price information is from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) since it was not collected in the KAP survey. We used the price of a pack of 20 cigarettes for Marlboro and the local brand. These two price variables were the primary independent variables, and we adjusted for inflation. The dependent variables were current smoking (yes/no) and smoking intensity, defined as the number of cigarettes smoked per week. Multivariable analysis was employed using a two-part model while adjusting for covariates. The first step of the model utilized logistic regression with current smoking as the dependent variable. The second step examining smoking intensity as the dependent variable, used OLS regression. Price elasticity was estimated as well. Analysis revealed that a one-unit increase (Israeli currency) in the price of local brand of cigarettes was related to 2.0% (OR = 0.98; 95%CI 0.98, 0.99) lower odds of being a current smoker, adjusting for covariates including household income. Moreover, a one unit increase in the price of the local brand of cigarettes was related to consuming 1.49 (95% CI −1.97, −1.00) fewer weekly cigarettes, controlling for household income and covariates. Similar results were found with the Marlboro cigarette prices. The total price elasticity of cigarette demand, given by the sum of price elasticities of smoking prevalence and intensity, showed that a 10.0% increase in the price is associated with a 4.6–9.2% lower cigarette consumption among Israeli adults. Thus, increasing cigarette prices will likely lead to a reduction in cigarette smoking thereby improving public health in Israel.

Comparing Lung Cancer Risks in Sweden, USA, and Japan

Objective. To develop a conceptual model for lung cancer rates to describe and quantify observed differences between Sweden and USA contra Japan. Method. A two-parameter lognormal distribution was used to describe the lung cancer rates over time after a 1-year period of smoking. Based on that risk function in combination with smoking prevalence, the calculated age-standardized rates were adjusted to fit reported data from Japan, Sweden, and the USA by parameter variation. Results. The risk of lung cancer is less in Japan than in Sweden and in the USA at the same smoking prevalence and intensity. Calculated age-specific rates did also fit well to reported rates without further parameter adjustments. Conclusions. This new type of cancer model appears to have high degree of predictive value. It is recommended that data from more countries are studied to identify important life-style factors related to lung cancer.