Military Experience and Elite Decision-Making: Self-Selection, Socialization, and the Vietnam Draft Lottery

Scholars across international relations (IR) debate the role military experience plays in elite decision-making. I argue there are two critical problems with this debate. First, it fails to adequately consider the underlying mechanisms linking military service to elite policy preferences. Second, it narrowly focuses on the use of force and largely ignores other ways in which military experience may shape elite behavior. I employ vulnerability to the Vietnam draft lottery to disentangle the impact of two key mechanisms linking military service to elite preferences: self-selection and socialization. I compare the foreign and defense policy roll call votes of Members of Congress (MCs) in the House of Representatives across the 94th–113th Congresses who were eligible for the draft and served in the military to those who were eligible for the draft but did not serve. I find significant differences in the roll call voting behavior between these groups, particularly on issues associated with arming and defense budget restrictions, as well as broader oversight of the military. These effects are heightened for MCs who served on active duty, in the military longer, and in combat, providing strong support for socialization effects. My study carries implications for civil–military relations, elite decision-making, and the study of leaders in IR.

First Person: Reporting for duty

Kim Marshall had not planned to become a teacher, but the specter of the Vietnam draft led him to seek a deferment by teaching in an urban school. He had no idea at the time that he was beginning a lifelong career. Here, he reflects on his struggle to manage his classroom and teach effectively that first year and the wake-up call that pushed him to improve for the sake of his students.

The Demographic Effects of Dodging the Vietnam Draft

This paper quantifies the impact of the Vietnam War on fertility rates in the late 1960s and early 1970s. For draft-eligible men wishing to avoid military service, the hardship deferment (III-A) for paternity created a powerful incentive to father a child. We provide a time series suggesting that the risk of being drafted and the availability of the paternity deferments significantly increased US fertility rates, especially among childless women likely to be partnered with draft-eligible men. Our results suggest caution in attributing the decline in fertility after 1970 solely to the legalization of abortion.

Un-Fortunate Sons: Effects of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on the Next Generation’s Labor Market

We examine whether the considerable shock generated by the Vietnam draft lottery affected the next generation’s labor market. Using the universe of US federal tax returns, we link fathers from draft cohorts to their sons’ adult outcomes and find that sons of fathers randomly called by the draft have lower earnings and are more likely to volunteer for military service. Our results demonstrate that malleable aspects of a parent’s life course can influence children’s labor market outcomes and provide sound evidence that policies that only directly alter the circumstances of one generation can have important long-run effects on the next. (JEL J22, J31, J45)