The interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in an Emerging economy

This article's main goal is to evaluate the degree of fiscal dominance in Uruguay in 1999-2019 to improve the understanding of economic policy for theoretical reasons and applied needs related to good practices and accountability. Two strategies are followed: one, to quantify the fraction of fiscal expenditures that are financed by monetary liabilities and, the other one, to analyze the effects of fiscal deficit on the price level and inflation because inflationary financing may prevent the central bank from reaching its inflation target. Both situations may subordinate the monetary policy to the fiscal policy, signaling fiscal dominance. In addition, through the analysis performed to assess the degree of fiscal dominance, it is possible to detect the main determining factors of the Uruguayan price level (inflation) formation during the last two decades. So far, preliminary results suggest that inflation is not exclusively a monetary phenomenon and point to some inflationary financing with a mild degree of fiscal dominance.

The ECB Under the Threat of Fiscal Dominance – The Individual Central Banker Dimension

This paper examines the threat of fiscal dominance for central banks with a focus on the individual dimension. A general symptom of fiscal dominance is a feedback loop from sovereign debt developments to monetary policy decisions. Our theoretical reasoning clarifies under which assumptions the individual members in a federal central bank system should pay particular attention to their home regions’ public debt situation. We present empirical evidence for the existence of such a repercussion in the context of the ECB Council. Based on public statements regarding the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), we classify the governors of the euro area national central banks (NCB) and the ECB board members as “hawks”, “neutrals,” and “doves”. We correlate the resulting classification with their home countries’ debt level. The resulting pattern is consistent with what can be expected for a regime of fiscal dominance. Whereas the doves tend to come from high-debt countries, the average debt level of the hawks’ home countries is significantly lower. As expected, this pattern is even more pronounced for the NCB presidents than for board members.

An Interest Stabilisation Mechanism to Unburden the ECB

Following the twin crises of sovereign debt and COVID-19, the ECB risks being stuck in a situation of fiscal dominance, in which monetary policy is subordinated to the needs of finance ministers. A strong post-COVID-19 recovery may increase inflationary pressures, requiring a shift towards a less accommodative monetary policy stance. A tightening of monetary policy may, however, lead to a widening of interest rate spreads and new bond market tensions in the euro area. This article argues that the credibility of the ECB is undermined if it is perceived as aiming to close interest spreads. Interest spreads between euro countries arising from fiscal concerns should be a matter of fiscal policy, not monetary policy. The establishment of an interest stabilisation mechanism would allow the ECB to restore monetary dominance and to focus on maintaining price stability.

Fiscal dominance and exchange rate stability in Nigeria

This study investigates fiscal dominance and exchange rate stability in Nigeria. The period of investigation spanned 1981q1–2018q4, and the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique was employed to test the fiscal dominance hypothesis and further examine the shock transmission effects of fiscal deficit components such as budget deficit and public debt on exchange rate movement in Nigeria. As a robustness, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed to analyse the shock transmission effects of these components on the movement of exchange rate in Nigeria. More so, granger causality test was conducted to trace the direction of causality among the fiscal deficit components and the exchange rates. The results show that budget deficit and changes in exchange rates in Nigeria have bi-causal relationship, while public debt could not granger cause exchange rate movement in the country. The SVAR estimates suggests that exchange rate movement in Nigeria reacted only to the shock effects of financial openness and the ARDL results indicate that both public debt and budget deficit have destabilizing effects on exchange rates in Nigeria.

Monetary Policy

The chapter explores two significant challenges faced by central banks in LFDCs: fiscal dominance and external shocks. Monetary policy can be dominated by governments that rely on seigniorage generated by the central bank or impose other constraints to facilitate the financing of persistent deficits. The chapter discusses and illustrates for several countries the concept of seigniorage, examines the mechanisms of fiscal dominance, and assesses its consequences. External oil and food price shocks also raise several monetary policy challenges. Using a theoretical approach, the chapter explores the trade-off between price and output stabilization that the central bank faces after a commodity price hike. The analysis takes into account whether the country is a net exporter or a net importer and whether it is on fixed or on flexible exchange rates. It also discusses coordination issues between monetary and fiscal policies, in particular when windfall gains accrue to the government.

HOW FAR FISCAL DOMINANCE MATTERS FOR A DEVELOPING ECONOMY

The growing public debt that intensifies with a frequency of economic crises grasps a high rating in the current economic debates. There is an urgent need for implementing an effective policy regime targeted at handling the public debt problem. The fiscal dominance policy, usually practiced to ensure strong recovery and growth, has a strict guideline for identifying a degree of fiscal expansion and monetary accommodation. Given a dilemma between growth and debt burden, the government should mobilize the most effective policy instrument targeted at the highest fiscal multiplier and does not cross a debt-to-GDP threshold ratio. Following an effective practice of fiscal management, this instrument is associated with public investment. The paper aims to assess the magnitude of the public investment multiplier by following a stable growth path limited by a prescribed debt limitation for a developing economy. To achieve the goal, we use an elaborated New Keynesian model, which besides an active fiscal and monetary stances, also includes a high share of non-Ricardian households, the separability in preferences between private and government consumption, a low level of public investment efficiency, and the substantiated degree of nominal and real rigidities. The obtained present value cumulative output multiplier for public investment grasps the point 2.0 in maximum over two years of the impulse response function. The multiplier effect proves to be high enough to offset temporary public debt growth and maintain a sustainable growth path over the long run. The verified measure of fiscal dominance contradicts an active monetary stance and, among other things, has to be counterbalanced by an appropriate efficiency and productivity of public investment and degree of price stickiness. Keywords: fiscal policy, monetary policy, fiscal-monetary interaction, fiscal dominance, fiscal multiplier, DSGE modeling. JEL Classification O47, E63, H63, D58 Formulas: 1; fig.: 2; tabl.: 0; bibl.: 21.

Modern Monetary Theory: A Solid Theoretical Foundation of Economic Policy?

This paper shows that so-called modern monetary theory (MMT) lacks a sound economic foundation for its far-reaching policy recommendations. This paper’s main contribution to the literature concerns the theoretical foundation of MMT. A simple macroeconomic model shows that MMT is indistinguishable from the Keynesian cross model, as well as a neoclassical macroeconomic model, even when taking account of money in the sense of MMT. This result is in stark contrast to the claims of MMT proponents. Accordingly, it is asserted that MMT is a fundamentally new theory of money and monetary economics. However, MMT is admittedly based on the functional finance concept of the 1940s and money is modelled as an accounting identity. In addition, the fundamental connection between government expenditures for goods and services and the steady state equilibrium value of the national income, the so-called fiscal stance, is a well-known result that is not only consistent with MMT. The interpretation of the fiscal stance, in combination with the accounting identity for money, is a major issue because an equilibrium condition should have a certain causal direction of effects. Based on this reading of the equilibrium condition, policy recommendations encompass the fiscal dominance of monetary policy via monetization of public debt, a job guarantee by the state, along with a so-called Green New Deal. According to the results of this paper, these policy recommendations cannot be justified with MMT.