The effectiveness of the inflation targeting regime as the basis for monetary policy in the conditions of crisis in the economy

Introduction. Inflation targeting, as a commitment by the central bank to adhere to quantitative inflation rates, has become a fairly common monetary regime in the last few decades in developed countries and developing economies. However, the impact of the pandemic crisis on the course of economic processes has revealed serious problems associated with the low efficiency of this regime. Therefore, there is an objective need to re-evaluate the system in which the central bank focuses monetary regulation solely on price stability, ignoring other strategic directions of government policy related to the need to save economic activity and prevent a large-scale recession.Purpose. Clarification of the peculiarities of the implementation of monetary policy on the basis of the inflation targeting regime and identification of problematic aspects of this regime in the conditions of external shocks and the unfolding economic crisis.Methods. General scientific and empirical techniques and tools of economics, methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, compilation and grouping are used.Results. The crisis indicates the need to build a monetary regime that would meet the interests of sustainable economic growth and social welfare. In Ukraine, there were no proper initial preconditions for the inflation targeting regime implementation. Therefore, adjusting the priorities of monetary policy in the crisis should reflect the gradual transition to a more flexible regime using monetary methods to support households and businesses, promote job creation, and stimulate aggregate demand.Prospects. Research of ways to increase the level of flexibility of monetary regulation, opportunities to expand the mandate of the central bank and improve the choice of optimal areas of influence on the economy with the help of monetary instruments at its disposal.

Outline of the Evolution of the Hungarian Monetary Policy from the Restoration of the Two-level Banking System to the Present Day

This study outlines the development of Hungary’s monetary policy, and the course and changes in its objectives and instruments since the beginning of the market economy transition in the late 1980s. The author’s basic thesis is that the period since the two-level banking system was reinstated after four decades of a planned economy system, in 1987, can be basically divided into three development phases with significantly different characteristics. The first phase was an ‘attempt to introduce’ an imported monetary mechanism, or perhaps an urge to comply with it, while the second phase was an approach of a monetary regime change launched in 2013 and supporting economic growth and financial stability strongly and directly, which lasted until the appearance of the traumatic elements of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. The third phase is evolving today, under the circumstances of adapting to the conditions of the real essence of the twenty-first century, i.e. a new type of international competitiveness, which is pursued by the Central Bank of Hungary as stipulated by the Fundamental Law and the cardinal Central Bank Act of Hungary.

The establishment of the inflation target and the corridor of fluctuations of the target: analysis of world trends and practice in Ukraine

The article presents an analysis of global trends in setting the inflation target and the acceptable corridor of inflation target fluctuations. Inflation targeting is an important attribute of the monetary regime of inflation targeting, its main quantitative parameter. The tendency of the inflation targeting regime in 70 countries all over the world are considered, of which 41 countries have official recognition by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the inflation targeting regime. It was found that most countries set the inflation target at 5% or below, and the level of the corridor of fluctuations in relative terms hovers around 20-50% of the target value. The latest trends related to changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank have been studied, recommendations for determining the acceptable corridor of fluctuations of the inflation target in small and open economies on the example of Ukraine are provided.

The consequences of the Cuban embargo escalation driven by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy

The world economy is facing an unprecedented crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the real scale of the imminent crisis of neoliberal model, accelerating its development and aggravating its consequences. The situation in the global economy had a negative impact on the Cuban economy, especially since it coincided with tightening of economic embargo by Donald Trump Administration against Cuba launched more than 60 years ago. This article provides a preliminary assessment of the consequences of the crisis bearing in mind that the damage will depend upon duration and intensity of the pandemic around the world. Given the open nature of the Cuban economy, the estimates are based on the projected dynamics of the global economy. In the first part of the article the author, relying on extensive statistics, analyzes international context in which the economic situation in Cuba is developing, as well as the key obstacles to the country’s economic development. Further on, the author examines in detail the course of COVID-19 pandemic development in the country, assessing key peculiarities of the government program to combat the virus. The author also makes a detailed analysis of the government program for economic recovery and development, paying specific attention to the peculiarities of the monetary regime in force in Cuba. In the final part of the article the author provides an analysis of the main priorities of the government at the present stage, namely, increasing foreign exchange earnings, food production and improving the efficiency of capital investments, especially foreign direct investments. The author concludes that the key factor for Cuba development will be the effectiveness of application of the economic policy approved by the government and promptness of the reforms that are required to overcome existing obstacles.

Money Doctors and Latin American Central Banks at the Onset of the Great Depression

Many of today's central banks in Latin America were established in the interwar period. During the 1920s, most of them were designed under the influence of money doctors. The main mandate of these new institutions was to cope with inflation and provide exchange stability. This article analyses how these central banks responded to the onset of the Great Depression. I show that, in accordance with the requirements of the monetary regime, central banks initially acted to prevent capital outflows and to protect their gold reserves. This led to a credit drop to the private sector. Additional credit was made available once governments decided to intervene more actively in the economy, thereby disregarding the advice of money doctors. The central banks that were founded in the 1930s, and the reforms introduced to those already operating, were conceived to face the effects of the crisis.

Planning laissez-faire: Supranational central banking and structural reforms

The impact of international economic integration on social protection is conditional on the monetary regime. This key insight of both Polanyi and Ruggie has been neglected in the Polanyi-inspired debate on the social consequences of European integration. Focusing on the European Court of Justice and the European Commission as the supranational enforcers of the legal logic of integration, the literature has paid insufficient attention to the role of the European Central Bank (ECB) as the supranational enforcer of the economic logic of integration since monetary union. While Polanyi conceptualized central banking as an institution of non-market coordination that evolved to protect the domestic economy from gold standard pressures, the ECB has acted as an enforcer of disembedding “euro standard” pressures vis-`a-vis national labor market and welfare state institutions. Performing a mixed-methods analysis of public speeches, parliamentary hearings, central bank publications, and interviews with senior decision-makers, we provide the first comprehensive study of the ECB’s advocacy of structural reforms during the period 1999–2019. Despite lacking the mandate or the authority to override national legislation, the ECB, strategically pursuing its organizational and systemic interests, pushed for structural reforms via discursive advocacy and conditionality. Our results show that Europe’s prospects for Polanyian non-market coordination are determined by Frankfurt as much as by Luxembourg and Brussels.

Politics, Central Bank, Monetary Regime and Government Bankruptcy

The damages and suffering caused by inflation during the course of history are enormous. Still, the worst excesses of inflation occurred not before the 20th century. This development was a consequence of the further technical development of money from coins to paper money and book money together with changes in the monetary regime or constitution ruling supply and control of money. Sustained inflation has always been a mone-tary phenomenon in the sense that the increase of the money supply is a necessary condition for its occurrence. Moreover, if an increase of the money supply is permanently outstripping the growth of real gross domestic product it is also a sufficient condi-tion for inflation. But that is not the whole story. For it has still to be asked which are the factors and institutional settings that allow the excessive growth of the money supply. And here historical evidence provides a clear answer (Figure 1). During the rule of the gold and silver standards until the outbreak of the World War I or after the restoration of it until the Great Depression of the 1930s no upward trend of the price level, but only long-term swings can be observed. But after the demise of the convertibility of banknotes into gold at a fixed parity and thus the introduction on a discretionary paper money standard the price level rises dramatically even in the respective developed countries.

Redistribution and the Monetary-Fiscal Policy Mix

We show that the effectiveness of redistribution policy in stimulating the economy and improving welfare is directly tied to how much inflation it generates, which in turn hinges on monetary-fiscal adjustments that ultimately finance the transfers. We compare two distinct types of monetary-fiscal adjustments: In the monetary regime, the government eventually raises taxes to finance transfers, while in the fiscal regime, inflation rises, effectively imposing inflation taxes on public debt holders. We show analytically in a simple model how the fiscal regime generates larger and more persistent inflation than the monetary regime. In a quantitative application, we use a two-sector, two-agent New Keynesian model, situate the model economy in a COVID-19 recession, and quantify the effects of the transfer components of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. We find that the transfer multipliers are significantly larger under the fiscal regime—which results in a milder contraction—than under the monetary regime, primarily because inflationary pressures of this regime counteract the deflationary forces during the recession. Moreover, redistribution produces a Pareto improvement under the fiscal regime.

Diversity of Monetary Regimes and Reactions to the Pandemic Crisis

This chapter analyses to what extent the type of monetary regime in three Balkans countries (Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia) determines the scope and nature of reactions to the pandemic crisis in the short run (providing liquidity to different sectors) and considers the possibilities for a long-term recovery. A comparative perspective is particularly suitable for the Balkan countries with great institutional diversity of the monetary regimes. In particular, the two members of the EU, Bulgaria and Romania, have been following different principles of monetary regimes for decades (Currency Board versus discretionary Monetary Policy). Both Bulgaria and Romania follow closely the ECB monetary policy. Serbia, which is outside the EU, is not affected by the constraints of European integration and actually has its independent monetary policy (although the Euro is also an important external anchor).