Strongly coherent dynamics of stochastic waves causes abnormal sea states

<p>The dynamic kurtosis (i.e., produced by the free wave component) is shown to contribute essentially to the abnormally large values of the full kurtosis of the surface displacement, according to the direct numerical simulations of realistic directional sea waves within the HOSM framework. In this situation the free wave stochastic dynamics is strongly non-Gaussian, and the kinetic approach is inapplicable. Traces of coherent wave patterns are found in the Fourier transform of the directional irregular sea waves. They strongly violate the classic dispersion relation and hence lead to a greater spread of the actual wave frequencies for given wavenumbers.</p><p>The research by is supported by the RSF grant No. 16-17-00041.</p><p>Slunyaev, A. Kokorina, The method of spectral decomposition into free and bound wave components. Numerical simulations of the 3D sea wave states. Geophysical Research Abstracts, V. 21, EGU2019-546 (2019).</p><p>A.V. Slunyaev, A.V. Kokorina, Spectral decomposition of simulated sea waves into free and bound wave components. Proc. VII Int. Conf. “Frontiers of Nonlinear Physics”, 189-190 (2019).</p><p>Slunyaev, A. Kokorina, I. Didenkulova, Statistics of free and bound components of deep-water waves. Proc. 14th Int. MEDCOAST Congress on Coastal and Marine Sciences, Engineering, Management and Conservation (Ed. E. Ozhan), Vol. 2, 775-786 (2019).</p><p>Slunyaev, Strongly coherent dynamics of stochastic waves causes abnormal sea states. arXiv: 1911.11532 (2019).</p>

Sensitivities of the MJO Forecasts on Configurations of Physics in the ECMWF Global Model

Sensitivities of MJO forecasts to various different configurations of physics are examined with the ECMWF global model, IFS. A motivation behind this study is to explore a possibility of interpreting the MJO as a nonlinear free wave under active interactions with Rossby waves from and to higher latitudes. With this motivation in mind, various momentum dissipation terms as well as diabatic heating are selectively turned off over the tropics for the range of the latitudes 20° S–20° N, and it is examined how physical tendencies control the MJO dynamics. The former include eddy diffusivities as well as dissipations by both shallow and deep convection. The reduction of momentum dissipations tends to improve the MJO forecasts, but the effects are hardly additive, and their total removals rather lead to a rapid decay of the MJO, illustrating the complexity of interactions between the physics.