A Machine Learning Framework for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at the Regional Scale in Earthquake and Flood-Prone Areas

Communities are confronted with the rapidly growing impact of disasters, due to many factors that cause an increase in the vulnerability of society combined with an increase in hazardous events such as earthquakes and floods. The possible impacts of such events are large, also in developed countries, and governments and stakeholders must adopt risk reduction strategies at different levels of management stages of the communities. This study is aimed at proposing a sound qualitative multi-hazard risk analysis methodology for the assessment of combined seismic and hydraulic risk at the regional scale, which can assist governments and stakeholders in decision making and prioritization of interventions. The method is based on the use of machine learning techniques to aggregate large datasets made of many variables different in nature each of which carries information related to specific risk components and clusterize observations. The framework is applied to the case study of the Emilia Romagna region, for which the different municipalities are grouped into four homogeneous clusters ranked in terms of relative levels of combined risk. The proposed approach proves to be robust and delivers a very useful tool for hazard management and disaster mitigation, particularly for multi-hazard modeling at the regional scale.

Defining risk reduction strategies for tourists with specific food needs: a qualitative approach

PurposeThis exploratory study aims to identify the main risk reduction strategies when individuals suffer from coeliac disease (CD) or non-coeliac gluten sensitivity (NCGS) travel. Based on Yeung and Yee's (2013; 2019) model, the paper offers a new framework for analysing the main travel risk reduction strategies for people with specific food needs. The empirical work focuses on the perspectives of different stakeholders (CD and NCGS community, restaurant managers/service providers and nutritionists).Design/methodology/approachA qualitative approach based on thematic analysis is adopted. The results of 32 semi-structured in-depth interviews reveal different stakeholders' perspectives in order to understand the various strategies.FindingsThe findings confirm the high level of consensus that the main food risk reducers are: travel information, staff training in safety assurance, legislation and risk prevention protocols. The findings also show significant limitations in the information offered by restaurants, organisations and tourist destinations and the negative repercussions on the tourist experience and the reputation on a particular destination.Practical implicationsThe results will help hospitality business managers and destination management organisations develop food risk reduction strategies to solve some of the most important food-related problems when people in this market segment travel.Originality/valueThis work contributes to the literature by providing a new framework on travel risk reduction strategies for people with specific food needs. The novelty of this research is mainly found in the study of risk reduction strategies related to the travel decision-making process for those with CD and NCGS from different perspectives.

Population Bias on Tornado Reports in Europe

Tornadoes are associated with damages, injuries, and even fatalities in Europe. Knowing the spatial distribution of tornadoes is essential for developing disaster risk reduction strategies. Unfortunately, there is a population bias on tornado reporting in Europe. To account for this bias, a Bayesian modeling approach was used based on tornado observations and population density for relatively small regions of Europe. The results indicated that the number of tornadoes could be 53% higher that are currently reported. The largest adjustments produced by the model are for Northern Europe and parts of the Mediterranean regions.

Global to regional overview of floods fatality: the 1951–2020 period

Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards. Human interferences along with climate change cause a lot of human and financial losses every year following the occurrence of floods. In this research, flooding events that have killed more than 10 people in the 1951–2020 period have been studied, analysing the EM-DAT database. The results show that the severity of flood-related deaths is equally distributed worldwide, but present some specific geographical patterns. The flood fatality coefficient, calculated for different countries, identified that Southern, Eastern, and South-Eastern regions of Asia have the deadliest floods in the world. The number of flood events has been increasing since 1951 and peaked in 2007, following a relatively declining trend since then. However, the number of death tolls does not follow a statistically significant trend. An examination of the number of flood events in different decades shows that the highest number of events occurred in the 2001–2010 decade, which corresponds to the largest precipitation anomaly in the world. The most casualties occurred in the decade 1991–2000. However, the lethality of floods has decreased over time, from 412 per flood in 1951–1960 to 67 in the 2011–2020 decade, probably as a consequence of a more resilient environment and better risk reduction strategies. In addition, a direct correlation was found between the number of flood events and the number of casualties with the world’s population.

Reviewing the place of migrants in disasters: a personal perspective

PurposeThe paper aims to call attention to issues that may be missing or taken for granted in discourses on migrants and disasters by applying the author’s viewpoint to reflect on gaps and potentials for disaster risk reduction.Design/methodology/approachThe author discusses key issues based on reflective engagement with selected secondary documentation in the form of grey and scholarly literature. Personal perspectives are engaged to develop arguments on intersections that are relevant to the migrant situation in different frameworks in disaster studies.FindingsWhile migrants are considered significant stakeholders in key global agreements on disaster and migration, encounters with disaster literature from a more localised level reveal how references to the migrant sector can be omitted or racialised. This gap can be filled by searching for documentation of migrant strengths and vulnerabilities. However, further reflection demonstrates how adopting broader perspectives can reveal these strengths and vulnerabilities as part of more appropriate and sustainable disaster risk reduction strategies. The paper also shows how such reflections can be led by insights from migrants themselves, not as subjects to be managed but as agents of their own change.Originality/valueThe paper is distinctive because it shows aspects of migrant strengths and disadvantages from a personal viewpoint. It amplifies less-heard perspectives on a conceptual level as well as in actual practice.

The Impacts of Perceived Risks on Information Search and Risk Reduction Strategies: A Study of the Hotel Industry during the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study examined the impacts of perceived risks on information search and risk reduction strategies as well as the relative importance of each risk reduction strategy. Multiple regression analysis was applied to analyze the sample of South Korean hotel customers and to test the hypotheses of the study. It was found that when hotel customers faced the same kind of risk, they adopted different information search strategies to reduce various risks during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, ‘following hotel employee’s advice’ was perceived to be the most important information search strategy to reduce risks. This is the first study to compare the differences of perceived risk and information search strategies under the COVID-19 pandemic and normal conditions to help hotels to develop more effective strategies to recover from the pandemic. The results of the study should be interpreted with care since it was based on Korean hotel customers. The influence of cultural differences in perceived risk and information search strategy should be addressed in future studies. The study contributes to the tourism and hospitality information search and risk reduction strategy-related literature and recommends avenues for further research in the field.

Prolonged brachial plexus neuropathy: a rare complication following protracted endometriosis surgery in Lloyd-Davies position

Brachial plexus injury is a rare but potentially serious complication of laparoscopic surgery. Loss of motor and/or sensory innervation can have a significant impact on the patient’s quality of life following otherwise successful surgery. A 38-year-old underwent elective laparoscopic management of severe endometriosis during which she was placed in steep head-down tilt Lloyd-Davies position for a prolonged period. On awakening from anaesthesia, the patient had no sensation or movement of her dominant right arm. A total plexus brachialis injury was suspected. As advised by a neurologist, an MRI brachial plexus, nerve conduction study and electromyography were requested. She was managed conservatively and made a gradual recovery with a degree of residual musculocutaneous nerve neuropathy. The incidence of brachial plexus injury following laparoscopy is unknown but the brachial plexus is particularly susceptible to injury as a result of patient positioning and prolonged operative time. Patient positioning in relation to applied clinical anatomy is explored and risk reduction strategies described.

375. High Laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate in Lima Health Care Personnel During August 2020-March 2021 Suggests Role for Improved Infection Control

Background Peru has one of the highest per capita SARS-CoV-2 death rates in Latin America. Healthcare workers (HCW) are a critical workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic but are themselves often at increased risk of infection. We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate and risk factors among frontline HCWs. Methods We performed a prospective cohort study of HCW serving two acute care hospitals in Lima, Peru from Aug 2020 to Mar 2021. Participants had baseline SARS-CoV-2 serology using the CDC ELISA, active symptom monitoring, and weekly respiratory specimen collection with COVID-19 exposure/risk assessment for 16-weeks regardless of symptoms. Respiratory specimens were tested by real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (rRT-PCR). Results Of 783 eligible, 667 (85%) HCW were enrolled (33% nurse assistants, 29% non-clinical staff, 26% nurses, 7% physicians, and 6% other). At baseline and prior to COVID-19 vaccine introduction, 214 (32.1%; 214/667) were reactive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. In total, 72 (10.8%; 72/667) HCWs were found to be rRT-PCR positive during weekly follow-up. Of the rRT-PCR positive HCWs, 37.5% (27/72) did not report symptoms within 1-week of specimen collection. During follow up, HCW without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at baseline were significantly more likely to be rRT-PCR positive (65/453, 14.3%) compared to those with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at baseline (4/214, 1.9%) (p-value: < 0.001). Three HCW were both serologically reactive and rRT-PCR positive at baseline. Looking only at HCW without SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, nurse assistants (rRT-PCR positive: 18.6%; 27/141) and non-clinical healthcare workers (16.5%; 21/127) were at greater risk of infection compared to nurses (8.5%; 10/118), physicians (7.9%; 3/38), and other staff (10.3%; 4/29) (RR 1.95;95%CI 1.2,3.3; p-value: 0.01). Conclusion Baseline SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and 16-week cumulative incidence were substantial in this pre-vaccination Peruvian HCW cohort. Almost 40% of new infections occurred in HCW without complaint of symptoms illustrating a limitation of symptom-based HCW screening for COVID-19 prevention. Nurse assistants and non-clinical healthcare workers were at greater risk of infection indicating a role for focused infection prevention and risk reduction strategies for some groups of HCW. Disclosures Fernanda C. Lessa, MD, MPH, Nothing to disclose