copula models
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Eckhard Liebscher ◽  
Franziska Taubert ◽  
David Waltschew ◽  
Jessica Hetzer

AbstractModelling and applying multivariate distributions is an important topic in ecology. In particular in plant ecology, the multidimensional nature of plant traits comes with challenges such as wide ranges in observations as well as correlations between several characteristics. In other disciplines (e.g., finances and economics), copulas have been proven as a valuable tool for modelling multivariate distributions. However, applications in ecology are still rarely used. Here, we present a copula-based methodology of fitting multivariate distributions to ecological data. We used product copula models to fit multidimensional plant traits, on example of observations from the global trait database TRY. The fitting procedure is split into two parts: fitting the marginal distributions and fitting the copula. We found that product copulas are well suited to model ecological data as they have the advantage of being asymmetric (similar to the observed data). Challenges in the fitting were mainly addressed to limited amount of data. In view of growing global databases, we conclude that copula modelling provides a great potential for ecological modelling.

Sosheel Solomon Godfrey ◽  
Ryan H. L. Ip ◽  
Thomas Lee Nordblom

Abstract The study provides comparative risk analyses of Australia’s three Victorian dairy regions. Historical data were used to identify business risk and financial viability. Multivariate distributions were fitted to the historical price, production, and input costs using copula models, capturing non-linear dependence among the variables. Monte Carlo simulation methods were then used to generate cash flows for a decade. Factors that influenced profitability the most were identified using sensitivity analysis. The dairies in the Northern region have faced water reductions, whereas those of Gippsland and South West have more positive indicators. Our analysis summarizes long-term risks and net farm profits by utilizing survey data in a probabilistic manner.

2021 ◽  
pp. 104940
Cheng Peng ◽  
Yihe Yang ◽  
Jie Zhou ◽  
Jianxin Pan

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110525
Libo Chen ◽  
Caigui Huang ◽  
Haiqiang Chen ◽  
Zhenfeng Zheng

Seismic fragility assessment widely uses a probabilistic measure for assessing the seismic performance of structural components or systems. This article proposes a copula-based seismic fragility (CBSF) method to derive the system-level damage probabilities of reinforced concrete bridges and to consider the correlation among seismic demands of components. First, the marginal distribution functions of the random variables are calibrated, and three Archimedean copula models are considered. Subsequently, the relevant parameters of the copula models are estimated using the semi-parametric maximum likelihood method. Next, the damage probabilities of a bridge system are calculated based on the joint distribution model with the most suitable copula model and the calibrated marginal distribution functions. Finally, the CBSF method is used to estimate the damage probability of a simply supported box girder bridge. The performance of the CBSF method is validated by a comparison of fragility curves obtained using the CBSF method and the probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) method. The comparative results demonstrate that the fragility curves obtained by the CBSF method are better than those obtained using the PSDA method. The proposed CBSF model can serve as a tool for assessing the seismic performance of structures and estimating the economic loss of existing bridge systems.

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022110605
Miran A. Jaffa ◽  
Mulugeta Gebregziabher ◽  
Ayad A. Jaffa

Analysis of longitudinal semicontinuous data characterized by subjects’ attrition triggered by nonrandom dropout is complex and requires accounting for the within-subject correlation, and modeling of the dropout process. While methods that address the within-subject correlation and missing data are available, approaches that incorporate the nonrandom dropout, also referred to informative right censoring, in the modeling step are scarce due to the computational intensity and possible intractable integration needed for its implementation. Appreciating the complexity of this problem and the need for a new methodology that is feasible for implementation, we propose to extend a framework of likelihood-based marginalized two-part models to account for informative right censoring. The censoring process is modeled using two approaches: (1) Poisson censoring for the count of visits before dropout and (2) survival time to dropout. Novel consideration was given to the proposed joint modeling approaches for the semicontinuous and censoring components of the likelihood function which included (1) shared parameter, and (2) Clayton copula. The cross-part and within-part correlations were accounted for through a complex random effect structure that models correlated random intercepts and slopes. Feasibility of implementation, and accuracy of these approaches were investigated using extensive simulation studies and clinical application.

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