scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Australia’s Victorian Dairy Farms Using Multivariate Copulae

Author(s):  
Sosheel Solomon Godfrey ◽  
Ryan H. L. Ip ◽  
Thomas Lee Nordblom

Abstract The study provides comparative risk analyses of Australia’s three Victorian dairy regions. Historical data were used to identify business risk and financial viability. Multivariate distributions were fitted to the historical price, production, and input costs using copula models, capturing non-linear dependence among the variables. Monte Carlo simulation methods were then used to generate cash flows for a decade. Factors that influenced profitability the most were identified using sensitivity analysis. The dairies in the Northern region have faced water reductions, whereas those of Gippsland and South West have more positive indicators. Our analysis summarizes long-term risks and net farm profits by utilizing survey data in a probabilistic manner.

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 688-692
Author(s):  
Lucian Nita ◽  
Dorin Tarau ◽  
Gheorghe Rogobete ◽  
Simona Nita ◽  
Radu Bertici ◽  
...  

The issue addressed relates to an area of 1891694 ha of which 1183343 ha are agricultural land (62, 56) located in the south-west of Romania and refer to the use of soil chemical and physical properties as an acceptor for certain crop systems, with minimal undesirable effects both for plants to be grown, as well as soil characteristics and groundwater surface quality. It is therefore necessary on a case-by-case basis, measure stoc or rect the acidic reaction by periodic or alkaline calculations, the improvement of plant nutrition conditions through ameliorative fertilization and the application of measures to improve the physical state, sufficient justification for the need to develop short and long term strategies for the protection and conservation of edifying factors and the need to respect the frequency of field and laboratory investigations at all 8x8 km grids of the National Soil-Grounds Monitoring System (organized by I.C.P.A.) and completing it with the relevant pedological and agrochemical studies.


2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1259-1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudipto Dasgupta ◽  
Thomas H. Noe ◽  
Zhen Wang

AbstractThis paper documents the short- and long-term balance sheet effect of cash flows. We show that cash savings in the short run and debt reduction in both the short and the long run account for a substantial fraction of cash flow use. Although, in the long run, investment exhibits substantial sensitivity to cash flows, investment does not absorb the entire cash flow shock. In fact, the tighter the financial constraints, the smaller the fraction of cash flow absorbed by investment and the more by leverage reduction. Firms stage their response to increases in cash flow, delaying investment while building up cash stocks and reducing leverage. These results suggest that much of the short-run economic effect of cash flow shocks to the corporate sector may be channeled into the corporate debt market rather than the capital goods market, especially when financing constraints tighten.


2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-255
Author(s):  
Eva Horvat ◽  
◽  
Mladen Latkovic ◽  

Author(s):  
Pradeep Kumar Rangi ◽  
P. S. Aithal

Notwithstanding the financial slowdown and severity of the Coronavirus pandemic during 2020, several retail investors ventures directly to the secondary equities market, setting off gigantic purchasing. A review of SEBI data indicates that over 6 million new dematerialization accounts between April and September 2020 are about 125 percent growth on year on year basis. At the same time, data reported by AMFI shows net outflows from equity funds by retail investors. These data points indicate that retail investors may have opted to invest using direct stock investments instead of relying on the equity mutual fund manager. Equity Investment is a dynamic process requiring and require considering different variables in selecting and, more importantly, avoiding stocks. The cornerstone of wealth creation is to invest in stores at a price considerably smaller than their intrinsic value. The very foundation of creating long-term wealth using equities is deeply embedded. One is buying businesses at a price substantially below its intrinsic value (intrinsic value indicates the entity's future cash flows after estimating the number of accounting risk, macro-economic, managerial, and behavioral risk determinants). This Literature review, therefore, is organized to cover Behavioral, Accounting, Macro-economic, Volatility, and Management theories and Forecasting and ML techniques for clustering, predictions, and classification to support risk decisions using different models, e.g., ARIMA, LSTM, VAR, Facebook Prophet, ARCH and GARCH family models, etc. The literature review also establishes that the concept of risk is highly subjective and is perceived by different investors differently; it is not always entirely objective and outside the beliefs, cognitive and socio-cultural considerations requiring careful assessment before making investment decisions. However, examining the critical risk indicators would allow investors to make a more informed decision. The research gap and identified agenda for further review were defined and assessed using valuable ABCD and SWOT management frameworks. Consequently, the literature investigation findings are analyzed by offering recommendations for creating a comprehensive research agenda pertinent to long-term equity investors in the Indian Equity market.


2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinji Sato ◽  
Shun Kishimoto ◽  
Haruna Hiramatsu

Long-term evolution of Miyazaki Coast was investigated in terms of four aspects, geology and geography, comparison of shoreline in available maps and photographs, sediment retention analysis in watershed scale and sediment size as well as luminescence measurements of foreshore sediments. Geological and geographical analysis revealed steep topography in northern part and fluvial plain on the southern part. The total rate of sediment retention in reservoirs was found to be as much as 1.9 million m3/year. Historical shoreline retreat in the recent 200 years was significant in the northern region whereas severe erosion was developed in the last decades on the southern region close to the rivermouths of the Hitotsuse River and the Ooyodo River. The sand grain size and the thermoluminescence intensity were both found to decrease from north to south, implying the dominant direction of longshore sand transport is from north to south.


2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Muhammad Iqbal ◽  
Iram Khan ◽  
Zeeshan Ahmed

This study examines the incidence of earnings management around the time of the privatisation of State Owned Enterprises in Pakistan during 1991-2005. Using the modified Jones model and a sample of large privatisations (minimum US$1 million), it shows that the sampled firms experienced increase in earnings, decrease in cash flows, and increase in current discretionary accruals in the year prior to and/or in the year of privatisation. The SOEs used both short term and long term accruals to inflate reported earnings. These accruals were reversed in the post-privatisation period. These findings suggest that managers of the firms slated for privatisation were engaged in earnings management to inflate their firms‘ financial worth to maximise the privatisation proceeds. Hence, we cannot reject the incidence of earnings management during privatisations in Pakistan. The results imply that the investors should carefully evaluate the to-be-privatised firms and keep in view the possibility of earnings management by the SOEs. JEL Classification: G14, G34, G38, L33, M41 Keywords: Earnings Management, Privatisations, SOEs, Pakistan, Accruals


2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. e2004769118
Author(s):  
Elizabeth M. Bullard ◽  
Ivan Torres ◽  
Tianqi Ren ◽  
Olivia A. Graeve ◽  
Kaustuv Roy

Anthropogenic warming and ocean acidification are predicted to negatively affect marine calcifiers. While negative effects of these stressors on physiology and shell calcification have been documented in many species, their effects on shell mineralogical composition remains poorly known, especially over longer time periods. Here, we quantify changes in the shell mineralogy of a foundation species, Mytilus californianus, under 60 y of ocean warming and acidification. Using historical data as a baseline and a resampling of present-day populations, we document a substantial increase in shell calcite and decrease in aragonite. These results indicate that ocean pH and saturation state, not temperature or salinity, play a strong role in mediating the shell mineralogy of this species and reveal long-term changes in this trait under ocean acidification.


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