The Dynamics of Cointegration Between Economic Growth and Financial Development in Emerging Asian Economy: Evidence from India

The present article examines the relationship between economic growth and financial development in the context of Indian economy over the period of 15 years from June 2003 to February 2018. The study employs cointegration test, involving Johansen Juselius Cointegration and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) Bounds test approach to ascertain the long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The study further employs fully modified ordinary least squares—OLS—(FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS) and canonical cointegration regression (CCR) models to ascertain the sensitivity and robustness of the estimates derived from ARDL Bounds test approach. The stability of the models employed in the study are further confirmed by rolling window analysis and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMSQ) tests. The outcome of the article reports the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth represented by Index of Industrial Production and Financial Development represented by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Index and BSE Volume of Trade. The article also involves consumer price index as proxy for inflation, exchange rate, ratio of export to import and weighted average call rate as control variable to also examine their impact on the Indian economic growth. The study confirms the existence of Supply Leading Hypothesis, that is, existence of unidirectional causality running from financial development to economic growth in the Indian economic scenario. The outcome of the article indicates the positive and significant influence of development of financial markets represented by stock market on the economic growth.

Linking energy consumption with economic growth: Rwanda as a case study

This paper analyzes the link between energy consumption and economic growth in Rwanda for the period 1985-2017. The ARDL bounds test was used to test for the existence of co-integration, while the Toda and Yamamoto granger causality test was applied to test for causal direction. The results from the estimation of the ARDL bounds test showed that there was no evidence of co-integration between the considered variables under study. Additionally, the empirical findings confirmed that there was no relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Rwanda. The findings supported the "neutrality hypothesis" between energy consumption and economic growth. This implies that neither conservative nor expansive policies in relation to energy consumption have any effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the study found a uni-directional granger causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. The results of this findings are consistent with the "growth hypothesis" which postulates that energy consumption leads to economic growth

Effect of Money Supply on Inflation in Nepal: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test

This study explores the long-run and short-run relationship of money supply and inflation in the context of Nepal. Data are extracted from Economic Survey of Nepal since 1964/65 to 2018/19 to obtain the relationship. ARDL Bounds test is used for cointegration test where the dependent variable is inflation and money supply and Indian inflation are taken as independent variables to estimate the model. Result shows the long-run cointegration between the variables reveals long-run relationship and the error correction term is found to be negative (-0.98) and significant (p=0.02). The study suggests that policy makers can reduce the impact of money supply on inflation and should focus on the control of inflation adopting monetary and fiscal policy mechanism. Creeping inflation in the pace of economic growth is desirable and successful cure of inflation will help in stability and growth of the country.