scholarly journals Effect of Money Supply on Inflation in Nepal: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-98
Author(s):  
Uttam Lal Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the long-run and short-run relationship of money supply and inflation in the context of Nepal. Data are extracted from Economic Survey of Nepal since 1964/65 to 2018/19 to obtain the relationship. ARDL Bounds test is used for cointegration test where the dependent variable is inflation and money supply and Indian inflation are taken as independent variables to estimate the model. Result shows the long-run cointegration between the variables reveals long-run relationship and the error correction term is found to be negative (-0.98) and significant (p=0.02). The study suggests that policy makers can reduce the impact of money supply on inflation and should focus on the control of inflation adopting monetary and fiscal policy mechanism. Creeping inflation in the pace of economic growth is desirable and successful cure of inflation will help in stability and growth of the country.  

Money Supply-Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from a Landlocked Country

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
Tilak Singh Mahara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Background: There is special role of money in the economy due to its astonishing importance as change in the amount of it can have a significant effect on the major macroeconomic variables. Money supply is generally considered as policy-determined phenomenon. Like in all the nations, macroeconomic stability of Nepal also depends on the variation in the quantity of money. Objective: The principle objective of the study is to examine the impact of money supply on the economic growth of Nepal. Methodology: This study applies the ARDL approach to cointegration. Bounds test (F-version) has been carried out to determine the existence of long-run relationship between variables. Results: The empirical results pointed out that there is positive and significant long-term relationship between money supply and real economic growth in Nepal. Causality result reveals that there is unidirectional causality from money supply (M2) to Real GDP. The error correction term is found negative and statistically significant suggesting a correction of short-run disequilibrium within two and a half years. Conclusions: The study concludes that increase in the money supply helps to increase the real economic growth in Nepal. So, money supply and real GDP are associated in the long-run.  Implications: The implication of the study is that, real economic growth in Nepal can be achieved if Nepal Rastra Bank emphasized on monetary policy instruments which help to increase the flow of money supply both in the short and long run.

scholarly journals An attribution analysis of soybean price volatility in China: global market connectedness or energy market transmission?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Youwang Zhang ◽  
Chongguang Li ◽  
Yuanyuan Xu ◽  
Jian Li
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Soybean Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of international soybean price and energy price on Chinese soybean price. Applied to monthly data over the period of 2007-2017, results show that both international soybean price and energy price have significant impacts on Chinese soybean price, while the impact from global soybean market tends to be more profound. First, we find that in the long run the cumulative pass-through elasticity of Chinese soybean price to international soybean price is greater than the elasticity to international energy price. Second, in the short run, international soybean price shocks transmit more quickly to Chinese soybean price. Our results shed new light on the determinants of soybean price volatility in China, and provide meaningful implications on the price risk management for market participants and policy makers.

scholarly journals Spot and Derivative Contract Prices: Articulation of Relationships of Cardamom through ARDL Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3S2) ◽  
pp. 73-77
Keyword(s):  
Spot Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Commodity Exchange ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Period Derivative ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Relationship

India is known as land of spices and boast of a long history in spices trading. Cardamom derivative contract is listed for trading on Multi commodity Exchange in India. This paper endeavors to find out relationship between spot and derivative contract of cardamom. The relationship is also tested between derivative price of cardamom and spot price. Two period derivative contracts, near month contract and next contract of cardamom are used for the study. Long run relationship is examined through ARDL Bounds test. ECM is applied to find out short term relationship and speed of adjustment towards long run. Long run relationship was found between spot and derivative as well as between derivative and spot. Long run relationship was established in both period contracts. Short run relationship was also established and speed of adjustment is higher in near month contract.

IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY TARGETS ON CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-95
Author(s):  
Abdulkarim Musa ◽  
◽  
Uwaleke Uche ◽  
Nwala Nneka ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically examines the impact of monetary policy targetson capital market development in Nigeria from 1986-2018. Time series data and econometric tools were used to test for the stationarity and causality effect. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to examine the short-run and long-run impact and relationship between Monetary Policy and Capital Market Development in Nigeria. The study revealed that both in the long run and short run Exchange Rate (EXCHR), Inflation Rate (INFR), and Interest Rate in Nigeria (INTR)were negatively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and they were statistically insignificant in explaining changes in Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria. On the other hand, inthe long run, Money Supply was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and was statistically significant at a 5% level significant while Money Supply (M2) was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria both in the long run and short-run and was statistically significant at 5% level of significance. Therefore, the study recommends that government should improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the money supply in Nigeria since it was statistically significant in determining the improvement of Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Inflation and Economic Growth Paradox: A Co-integration Analysis in Nepal

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Uttam Lal Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

The empirical study investigates the relationship between economic growth, inflation and broad money supply in Nepal. Data since 1965 to 2020 are taken from World Bank and Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model is used to find cointegration between the variables to show long run and short run dynamics. Augmented Dickey- Fuller and Philips- Perron tests are conducted to find the unit roots in the model. Result shows the error correction term is negative (-0.75) and significant (0.0043) where bounds test supports the long run cointegration and error correction model suggest the speed of adjustment. The estimated regression equation is found robust and stable (serial correlation and heteroskedacity tests).  The research shows inflation has short run and long run impact on economic growth so inflation should be kept within its threshold level from sound monetary and fiscal policy mechanism.

scholarly journals Testing the Validity of the Long Run Neutrality of Money in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-167
Author(s):  
Ephraim Ugwu ◽  
Christopher Ehinomen ◽  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Olubunmi Efuntade
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Negative Sign ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Short Run

Abstract Research background: There is no consensus among scholars on the interaction effect between money supply, price, and wages despite various studies conducted to that effect. Purpose: This study investigates whether the neutrality of money assumption holds in the long run in Nigeria, using annual data from 1970 to 2018. Research methodology: The study utilized the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction (VECM) approach for estimation. Results: The results from the Phillips curve model contradict the classical school of economics assumption that money is neutral in the long run. This implies that in the Nigerian economy, money is not neutral in the long run. The long run Fishers’ effect model shows that the coefficient of LOG (CPI) exhibits a negative sign and is statistically significant at a 5% significant level, thus contradicting the hypothesis which states that a one percent increase in consumer prices will lead to an increase in the rate of interest by one percent. The coefficient of nominal money supply indicates a negative sign and insignificant statistically on the interest rate. The Short-run estimated results showed that the coefficient of the error correction term ECM (–1) indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically in the Fishers’ effect model. The result shows the actual and equilibrium values are corrected with adjustment speeds equal to 31% yearly. Novelty: The study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria should ensure an effective implementation of monetary targeting measures in fine-tuning the economy and curbing inflationary pressures.

scholarly journals Impact of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on CO2 Emissions in the Us

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid Anser ◽  
Qasim Syed ◽  
Noreen Khalid ◽  
Jamshid Ali Turi ◽  
Juned Ali Shah
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Nowadays, environmental degradation is perceived as one of the serious concerns across the globe. One of the prime reasons behind environmental degradation is CO2 emissions. Therefore, researchers are actively putting their efforts to explore the determinants of CO2 emissions to mitigate CO2 emissions. On this basis, the present study contributes to the existing literature by investigating the impact of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) and fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) on CO2 emissions (environmental degradation). The current study employs ARDL methodology and uses annual data ranging from 1985 to 2019 for US. The results from the ARDL model report that there is an existence of long-run relationship among the variables. Moreover, MPU escalates the carbon emissions in both short-run and long-run. This implies that increase in MPU is responsible for rise in environmental degradation. On the contrary, FPU plunges the carbon emissions in both short- and long-run. This indicates that increase in FPU decreases the environmental degradation. Findings from the current study propose that policy makers should introduce reforms and launch policies to shrink MPU. Next, this study proposes that rule should be adopted as monetary policy making framework in lieu of discretion. Furthermore, the current study recommends that FPU should not be utilized as a tool to mitigate environmental degradation, because FPU has severe economic impacts.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of macroeconomic variables on pension benefits in Ghana: A case of Social Security and National Insurance Trust

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Grace Ofori-Abebrese ◽  
Robert Becker Pickson ◽  
Sherifatu Abubakari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Domestic Currency ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pension Benefits ◽  
The Impact

Background: One of the most pressing phases for all economic agents is post-retirement standard of living. Irrespective of the higher returns on pension contribution and varied pension reforms, there are possible factors that can render these pension benefits inadequate, which can affect the longevity of retirees. Studies conducted in other countries have concluded that inflation deteriorates the value of pension benefits. Aim: This study, thus, sought to assess the impact of some major economic indicators in the Ghanaian environment on pension benefits.Setting: This study was carried out in Ghana by obtaining quarterly data frequencies on pension benefits and economic indicators spanning the period 2000Q1 to 2014Q4.Method: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model was utilised to examine the long run and short run dynamics of some major economic indicators and pension benefits.Results: The empirical evidence indicated that inflation deteriorates total pension benefits. Increasing monetary policy rate and depreciation of the domestic currency should be an issue to contend with only in the short run rather than in the long run. The study also found the prominence of the implementation of the National Pension Reform in 2008.Conclusion: The study concluded that if policy makers target the reduction in the monetary policy rate and the appreciation of the domestic currency in an effort to stabilise the value of total pension benefits in the long run, it would not be effective in the long run because of their insignificant nature. Policy makers should rather target inflation as the prime tool for stabilising the standard of living of retirees in the long run.

scholarly journals Impact of economic growth on international reserve holdings in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHAMMAD KASHIF ◽  
P. SRIDHARAN ◽  
S. THIYAGARAJAN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Error Correction Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT This study investigated the impact of economic growth on Brazilian international reserves holdings in the context of Error Correction Mechanism using data over the 1980-2014 period. The results reveal that economic growth is highly significant. From the estimation of our model, we argue that economic growth and international reserves have positive long run relationship. Error correction estimates validated our model for error correction term is negative and statistically significant. Besides, our model suggested that economic growth has short run relationship too. The speed of adjustment is more than 40% which indicated that error correction term corrects previous year disequilibrium at the rate of 40.4%.

scholarly journals REVISITING THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS USING ARDL APPROACH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM KAZAKHSTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imtiyaz Ahmad Shah ◽  
Shabir Ahmad Najar ◽  
Bilal Ahmad Khan
Keyword(s):  
Correction Term ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The paper aims to examine the impact of exports on Kazakhstan's economic growth. The effect of exports is determined through a neoclassical production function, examining exports' role after controlling the labour force and capital formation. The analysis is based ARDL model on testing for the short-run and long-run effects of independent variables. The long-run coefficient of exports is 0.38, while the short-run coefficient is 0.28 and statistically significant. Therefore, exports impact positively on G.D.P. per capita in both the short-run and long-run. Also, coefficient of error correction term (E.C.M.) is negative and statistically significant, showing the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium from short-run to long-run. Therefore, Kazakhstan's government should focus on increasing the exports that can increase the G.D.P. per capita better.

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