scholarly journals The Marshall-Lerner Condition in the Fragile Five Economies: Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 731-750
Author(s):  
Ayrton J. C. Amaral ◽  
Marthinus C. Breitenbach
Keyword(s):  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Bounds Test

scholarly journals Are Major US Trading Partners’ Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Evidence from Bootstrap ARDL

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-27
Author(s):  
Soo Khoon Goh ◽  
Tuck Cheong Tang ◽  
Chung Yan Sam
Keyword(s):  
Jel Classification ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Status ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Economic Journal

A study by McNown, Sam, and Goh [2018, Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509–1521] has shown that the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith [2001, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326] may draw incorrect conclusions on the status of the cointegration test, if the ARDL bounds test is not implemented correctly. We assess the long-run relationship between US exports and imports as well as between its eight major trading partners (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and the United Kingdom) by applying the newly developed bootstrap ARDL test by McNown et al. (2018). The results show cointegration if exports are used as the dependent variable, but not when imports are being considered as the dependent variable. This suggests that the cointegration result is sensitive to the choice of the dependent variable. We have similar findings when we examine the US and its major trading partners. No long-run relationship exists between exports and imports in the case of the US, which concurs with the finding of Fountas and Wu [1999, International Economic Journal, 13(3), 51–58]. The results also suggest that the US attempts to reduce its bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies may not be appropriate. JEL Classification: F14, C22

scholarly journals Spot and Derivative Contract Prices: Articulation of Relationships of Cardamom through ARDL Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3S2) ◽  
pp. 73-77
Keyword(s):  
Spot Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Commodity Exchange ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Period Derivative ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Relationship

India is known as land of spices and boast of a long history in spices trading. Cardamom derivative contract is listed for trading on Multi commodity Exchange in India. This paper endeavors to find out relationship between spot and derivative contract of cardamom. The relationship is also tested between derivative price of cardamom and spot price. Two period derivative contracts, near month contract and next contract of cardamom are used for the study. Long run relationship is examined through ARDL Bounds test. ECM is applied to find out short term relationship and speed of adjustment towards long run. Long run relationship was found between spot and derivative as well as between derivative and spot. Long run relationship was established in both period contracts. Short run relationship was also established and speed of adjustment is higher in near month contract.

scholarly journals Effect of Money Supply on Inflation in Nepal: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-98
Author(s):  
Uttam Lal Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the long-run and short-run relationship of money supply and inflation in the context of Nepal. Data are extracted from Economic Survey of Nepal since 1964/65 to 2018/19 to obtain the relationship. ARDL Bounds test is used for cointegration test where the dependent variable is inflation and money supply and Indian inflation are taken as independent variables to estimate the model. Result shows the long-run cointegration between the variables reveals long-run relationship and the error correction term is found to be negative (-0.98) and significant (p=0.02). The study suggests that policy makers can reduce the impact of money supply on inflation and should focus on the control of inflation adopting monetary and fiscal policy mechanism. Creeping inflation in the pace of economic growth is desirable and successful cure of inflation will help in stability and growth of the country.  

scholarly journals Energy–Finance–Growth Nexus in ASEAN-5 Countries: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masnun Mahi ◽  
Seuk Wai Phoong ◽  
Izlin Ismail ◽  
Che Ruhana Isa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
Finance Growth Nexus

This study examines the relationship between energy consumption, financial development and economic growth for ASEAN-5 countries, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, over the period from 1980 to 2017. Finance–growth and energy–growth relationships have been well researched; however, the energy–finance–growth nexus is an equally important but less explored area. Our Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration results suggests that the variables tend to move together in the long run for all countries, apart from Indonesia. Our study also considers the effect of a structural break due to financial crisis and confirms that the break does not affect the long-term relationship among the variables; in other words, the financial crisis does not affect the energy–finance–growth nexus. Hence, considering the consistency of energy consumption, the importance of the energy sector must not be undermined, and appropriate energy policies are instrumental in maintaining a well-managed financial sector for sustainable economic growth.

The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
Huseyin Isiksal ◽  
Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal ◽  
Yossi Apeji
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Labor Market Outcomes ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Market Indicator

The civil war in Syria has destabilized the whole Middle East along with neighboring regions. In this respect, the impact of Syrian refugees on Turkish labor market is one of the most important contemporary issues discussed in Turkey. This issue has both political and economic significance. Deriving from this point, the aim of this study is to research the empirical relationship between the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) and the growing number of Syrian Refugees in Turkey (RS) by using time series analysis. The data employs monthly data for the period from January 2012 to August 2017. Results of the ARDL bounds test suggest that the Labor Market Indicator and the number of Syrian Refugees are in a long-run relationship. The Gregory-Hansen cointegration test with a structural break confirms the robustness of the ARDL bounds test of cointegration. The Kalman filtering approach was designed to investigate the dynamic relationship between the Labor Market Indicators and the growing number of Syrian Refugees. The results show that the increase in the number of Syrian refugees negatively affects the Labor Market Indicator in Turkey, which implies that the inflow of Syrians has negative effects on labor market outcomes such as employment and unemployment in the country. These results also confirm the postulation of general labor migration theory, which holds that an influx of refugees negatively affects labor market outcomes in the harboring country.

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