Assessing the Equity and Redistributive Effects of Taxation Reforms in Nigeria

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of poverty and inequality reduction through redistribution have indeed become critical concerns in many low- and middle-income countries, including Nigeria. Although redistribution results from the effect of tax revenue collections, micro household-level empirical analyses of the distributional effect of personal income tax (PIT) and value added tax (VAT) reforms in Nigeria have been scarcely carried out. This study for the first time quantitatively assessed both the equity and redistributive effects of PIT and VAT across different reform scenarios in Nigeria. Data used in this study was mainly drawn from the most recent large scale nationally representative Nigeria Living Standard Survey, conducted in 2018/2019. The Kakwani Index was used to calculate and compare the progressivity of PIT and VAT reforms. A simple static micro-simulation model was employed in assessing the redistributive effect of PIT and VAT reforms in the country. After informality has been accounted for, the PIT was found to be progressive in the pre- 2011 tax scheme, but turned regressive in the post-2011 tax scheme. It was also discovered that the newly introduced lump sum relief allowance in the post-2011 PIT scheme accrues more to the high-income than to the low-income taxpayers – confirming the regressivity of the current PIT scheme. However, the study further shows (through counterfactual simulations) that excluding the relatively high-income taxpayers from sharing in the variable part of the lump sum relief allowance makes PIT progressive in the post-2011 scheme. The VAT was uncovered to be regressive both in the pre-2020 scheme, and in the current VAT reform scheme. Further, after putting informality into consideration, the PIT was found to marginally reduce inequality but increase poverty in the pre-2011 scheme. The post-2011 PIT scheme reduced inequality and increased poverty, but by a smaller proportion – confirming a limited redistribution mainly resulting from the concentration of the lump sum relief allowance at the top of the distribution. However, if the variable part of the lump sum relief allowance is provided for ‘only’ the low-income taxpayers below a predefined income threshold, the post-2011 PIT scheme becomes largely redistributive. VAT was uncovered to marginally increase inequality and poverty in the pre-2020 scheme. Though the current VAT scheme slightly increased inequality, it considerably increased poverty in the country. It is therefore suggested that a better tax reform, with well-regulated relief allowance and differentiated VAT rates, will help to enhance the equity and redistribution capacity of the Nigeria tax system.

Highways, Market Access, and Spatial Sorting

We design a parsimonious spatial equilibrium model featuring workers embodied with heterogeneous skills and non-homothetic preferences. In equilibrium, locations with improved commuting access become relatively more attractive to high-income earners. We empirically analyse the effects of the construction of the Swiss highway network between 1960 and 2010 on the population size and composition of municipalities. We find that the advent of a new highway access led to a long-term 24% increase in the share of top-income taxpayers and a 8% decrease in the share of low-income taxpayers, impacting segregation by income. Highways also contributed to job and residential urban sprawl.

THE CASE FOR OVER-WITHHOLDING FEDERAL INCOME TAX: BENEFITS TO LOW-INCOME TAXPAYERS

The W-4 tax withholding form has been used by individual taxpayers for decades to calculate their tax withholdings. It is based, however, on the faulty assumption that most U.S. workers have a single source of income. This assumption has caused millions of taxpayers to incur unnecessary tax debt. The formula for calculating federal income tax withholding for employees routinely under-withholds for low-income workers who have multiple sources of income because, without substantial documentation and calculation by the employee, employers withhold as if they are the employee’s single source of income. Taxpayers may therefore see their income tax withheld at too low a marginal rate, oftentimes zero percent, and can have significant balances due on short notice at the end of the tax year.This Note documents that reality and proposes a solution. It proposes a reconception of the Form W-4 and the withholding formula through the lens of low-income filers and aims for a policy of over-withholding from those filers in order to reduce surprise tax due and related penalties. The proposed solution removes the bias towards achieving a “zero refund” from the form design by eliminating the tax-free threshold—for most filers, the equivalent of their standard deduction—from the withholding scheme. As discussed in the Note, the proposed policy would also have the benefit of increasing tax compliance, minimizing bureaucratic burdens, and providing a revenue-neutral solution for the government. This Note further suggests an extension of the proposed policy to provide a much-needed savings mechanism for low-income filers.

Personal Income Tax Compliance in Nigeria: A Generalised Ordered Logistic Regression

This paper builds on already existing theoretical and empirical research on the economic and psychological factors used in explaining tax compliance. The likelihood that personal income taxpayers in Nigeria will be tax non-compliant, low tax compliant or tax compliant for either economic or psychological factors and a combination of both factors are evaluated using the Generalised ordered logistic regression. The findings in this paper provide extra information on the mixed results that have been obtained by empirical research on the subject matter of tax compliance by revealing how economic and psychological factors have different likelihood values for individuals to fall into the tax compliant category. This paper recommends that a proper analysis of the peculiar traits of the Nigerian tax system be conducted before decisions are made on either of the economic or psychological factors to be employed, to move personal income taxpayers to the tax compliant category.

Taxation with Mobile High-Income Agents: Experimental Evidence on Tax Compliance and Equity Perceptions

In a laboratory experiment on tax compliance, we model a situation in which high-income taxpayers can leave a tax system that finances a public good. We compare low-income taxpayers’ compliance decisions and equity perceptions across treatments in which they are informed or not informed about the mobility option of high-income taxpayers. This allows us to test if low-income taxpayers regard the mobility option as a rationale for implementing a regressive tax schedule. To investigate if a potential `justification effect’ of the mobility option depends on the causes of income heterogeneity, we also varied whether income was allocated based on relative performance in a prior ability task or at random. Interestingly, although the performance-based allocation itself was judged to be fairer, we observed higher compliance under the random allocation mechanism. However, compliance and equity perceptions did not significantly differ by the information treatment variation, regardless of the source of income inequality. The results indicate that the threat of losing high-income taxpayers’ contributions does not lead low-income taxpayers to view the regressive tax schedule more favorably. This suggests that taking the differential mobility options as given and altering tax schedules accordingly may not be perceived as an adequate policy response.