Bayesian Uncertainty Identification of Model Parameters for the Jointed Structures with Nonlinearity

Jointed structures in engineering naturally perform with some of nonlinearity and uncertainty, which significantly affect the dynamic characteristics of the structural system. In this paper, the method of Bayesian uncertainty identification of model parameters for the jointed structures with local nonlinearity is proposed. Firstly, the nonlinear stiffness and damping of the joints under the random excitation are represented with functions of excitation magnitude in terms of the equivalent linearization. The process of uncertainty identification is separated from the representation of local nonlinearity. In this way, the dynamic behavior of the joints is penetratingly characterized instead of ascribing the nonlinearity to uncertainty. Secondly, a variable-expanded Bayesian (VEB) method is originally proposed to identify the mixed of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of model parameters. Different from traditional Bayesian identification, the aleatory uncertainties of model parameters are identified as one of the most important parts rather than only measurement noise of output. Notablely, a series of intermediate variables are introduced to expand the parameter with aleatory uncertainty in order to overcome the difficulty of establishing the likelihood function. Moreover, a 3-DOF numerical example is illustrated with case studies to verify the proposed method. The influence of observed sample size and prior distribution selection on the identification results is tested. Furthermore, an engineering example of the jointed structure with rubber isolators is performed to show the practicability of the proposed method. It is indicated that the computational model updated with the accurately identified parameters with both nonlinearity and uncertainty has shown the excellent predictive capability.

Adaptive management of technical condition of power transformers

Ensuring reliable operation of power transformers as part of electric power facilities is assigned to the maintenance and repair system, whose important components are diagnostics and monitoring of the technical condition. Monitoring allows you to answer the question of whether the transformer abnormalities and how to do they manifest, while diagnostics allow determining the nature, the severity of the problem, determine the cause and possible consequences. The article presents the results of the authors ' research on creating an algorithm for adaptive control of the technical condition of power transformers using diagnostic and monitoring data. The developed algorithm implements the decision-making procedure for ensuring the reliable operation of oil-filled transformer equipment as part of the substations of electric power facilities. The decision-making procedure is based on the method of statistical Bayesian identification the states of a transformer based on the results of dissolved gas analysis (DGA) in oil. The method is characterized by high reliability of recognizing defects in the transformer and the ability to adapt the probabilities of the obtained solutions to the newly received diagnostic information. These results illustrate the effectiveness of the developed approach and the possibility of its application in the operation of oil-filled transformer equipment.