Development of a Practical Evaluation Method for Tsunami Debris and Its Accumulation

Tsunami-related fires may occur in the inundation area during a huge tsunami disaster, and woody debris produced by the tsunami can cause the fires to spread. To establish a practical method for evaluating tsunami-related fire predictions, we previously developed a method for evaluating the tsunami debris thickness distribution that uses tsunami computation results and static parameters for tsunami numerical analysis. We then used this evaluation method to successfully reproduce the tsunami debris accumulation trend. We then developed an empirical building fragility function that relates the production of debris not only to inundation depth but also to the topographic gradient and the proportion of robust buildings. Using these empirical evaluation models, along with conventional tsunami numerical analysis data, we carried out a practical tsunami debris prediction for Owase City, Mie Prefecture, a potential disaster area for a Nankai Trough mega-earthquake. This prediction analysis method can reveal hazards which go undetected by a conventional tsunami inundation analysis. These results indicate that it is insufficient to characterize the tsunami hazard by inundation area and inundation depth alone when predicting the hazard of a huge tsunami; moreover, more practically, it is necessary to predict the hazard based on the effect of tsunami debris.

Agriculture and forestry impact assessment for tephra fall hazard: fragility function development and New Zealand scenario application

Developing approaches to assess the impact of tephra fall to agricultural and forestry systems is essential for informing effective disaster risk management strategies. Fragility functions are commonly used as the vulnerability model within a loss assessment framework and represent the relationship between a given hazard intensity measure (e.g., tephra thickness) and the probability of impacts occurring. Impacts are represented here using an impact state (IS), which categorises qualitative and quantitative statements into a numeric scale. This study presents IS schemes for pastoral, horticultural, and forestry systems, and a suite of fragility functions estimating the probability of each IS occurring for 13 sub-sectors. Temporal vulnerability is accounted for by a ‘seasonality coefficient,’ and a ‘chemical toxicity coefficient’ is included to incorporate the increased vulnerability of pastoral farming systems when tephra is high in fluoride. The fragility functions are then used to demonstrate a deterministic impact assessment with current New Zealand exposure.

New Insights Into the Relationship Between Seismic Intensity Measures and Nonlinear Structural Response

This paper focuses on the probabilistic analysis of Intensity Measures (IMs) and Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) for earthquake excitations. Several statistical properties, which are desirable in IMs when they are used to predict EDPs, have been analyzed. The main sources of uncertainty involved in the calculation of the seismic risk have been considered in the analysis. Efficiency, sufficiency and steadfastness have been quantified for a set of IMs with respect to two EDPs: the maximum inter-storey drift ratio, MIDR, and the maximum floor acceleration, MFA. Steadfastness is a new statistical property proposed in this article. It is related to the ability of IMs to forecast EDPs for big building suites. This also means that efficiency does not significantly vary when different types of buildings are included in the statistical analyses. This property allows reducing the number of calculations when performing seismic risk estimations at urban level since, for instance, a large variety of fragility curves of specific buildings can be grouped together within an only one, but more generic, fragility function. The nonlinear dynamic response of probabilistic multi-degree-of-freedom buildings’ models, subjected to a large data set of ground motion records, have been considered to perform the statistical analysis. Specifically, reinforced concrete buildings whose number of stories vary from 3 to 13 stories have been analysed. 18 spectrum-, energy- and direct-accelerogram-based IMs have been considered harein. From the statistical properties of the generated clouds of IM-EDP points, efficiency and sufficiency properties have been quantified. For MIDR, results show that IMs based on spectral velocity are more efficient and steadfast than the ones based on spectral acceleration; spectral velocity averaged in a range of periods, AvSv, has shown to be the most efficient and steadfast IM. The opposite happens for MFA, that is, spectral acceleration-based-IMs are more efficient than the velocity-based ones. A comparison on the use of linear vs quadratic regression models, and their implications on the derivation of fragility functions, is presented as well. Concerning sufficiency, most of the 18 basic IMs analyzed herein do not have this property. However, multi-regression models have been employed to address this lack of sufficiency allowing to obtain a so-called ‘ideal’ IM.

Fragility functions for local failure mechanisms in unreinforced masonry buildings: a typological study in Ferrara, Italy

Unreinforced masonry buildings undergoing seismic actions often exhibit local failure mechanisms which represent a serious life-safety hazard, as recent strong earthquakes have shown. Compared to new buildings, older unreinforced masonry buildings are more vulnerable, not only because they have been designed without or with limited seismic loading requirements, but also because horizontal structures and connections amid the walls are not always effective. Also, Out-Of-Plane (OOP) mechanisms can be caused by significant slenderness of the walls even if connections are effective. The purpose of this paper is to derive typological fragility functions for unreinforced masonry walls considering OOP local failure mechanisms. In the case of slender walls with good material properties, the OOP response can be modeled with reference to an assembly of rigid bodies undergoing rocking motion. In particular, depending on its configuration, a wall is assumed either as a single rigid body undergoing simple one-sided rocking or a system of two coupled rigid bodies rocking along their common edge. A set of 44 ground motions from earthquake events occurred from 1972 to 2017 in Italy is used in this study. The likelihood of collapse is calculated via Multiple Stripe Analysis (MSA) from a given wall undergoing a specific ground motion. Then, the single fragility functions are suitably combined to define a typological fragility function for a class of buildings. The procedure is applied to a historical aggregate in the city center of Ferrara (Italy) as a case study. The fragility functions developed in this research can be a helpful tool for assessing seismic damage and economic losses in unreinforced masonry buildings on a regional scale.

Fragility Curve Analysis of Medium Cable Stayed Bridge

The seismic performance of a bridge can be shown by analyzing the vulnerability of the structure in resisting an earthquake motion and then developing into fragility curves. This study presents a convenient method to establish the fragility curve for the cable-stayed bridge. For this purpose, three spans cable-stayed bridge is assessed using a series of seismic loads in different intensities to ensure that the structure was experiencing damage in several conditions. The fragility curve was obtained by analyzing the structure using Nonlinear Time History (NTHA) and Pushover Analysis. The ground motions of the earthquake were subjected to the bridge in different intensities, which were scaled from the initial ground motion. Hereafter, the structure’s ductilities were developed into the fragility curves as the responses of the bridge. HAZUS standard is used for classifying the damages of the bridge, which are grouped into; slight, moderate, extensive, and complete due to the seismic load. The values of the damage states were generated to the fragility curves using the probabilistic values of the damage states. To ensure the validity of the data statistically, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was conducted to the fragility function. The result revealed that the fragility curve was qualified as the lognormal distribution.

Fragility Functions for Local Failure Mechanisms in Unreinforced Masonry Buildings

The unreinforced masonry buildings can be present frequent local failure mechanisms and represent a serious life-safety hazard as recent strong earthquakes have shown. Compared to new building, existing unreinforced masonry buildings prone to be more vulnerable, not only because they have been designed without seismic or limited loading requirements, but also because horizontal structures and connections amid the walls are not always suitable. Out-of-plane collapse can be caused by important slenderness of walls also when connections are effective. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate fragility functions for unreinforced masonry walls in the presence of local failure mechanisms considering the out-of-plane response. The wall response, very often, can be idealized as rigid bodies undergoing rocking motion. Depending on its configuration, a wall is assumed either as a rigid body undergoing simple one-sided rocking or an assembly of two coupled rigid bodies rocking along their common edge. A set of 44 ground motions from earthquake events occurred from 1972 to 2017 in Italy is used in this study. The likelihood of collapse is calculated via Multiple Stripe Analysis (MSA) from a given wall undergoing a specific ground motion. Later, the single fragility functions are suitably combined to define a typological fragility function for a class of buildings. The procedure is applied to a historical aggregate in the city center of Ferrara (Italy) as a case study. The fragility functions developed in this research can be a very helpful tool for estimating damage and economic loss for unreinforced masonry buildings and for a seismic assessment on a regional scale.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of Institutional Building of Pokhara University

Fragility curves are derived from fragility function that indicates the probability of damage of structure due to earthquake as a function of ground motion parameter. It helps to predict the level of structural damage and consequently reduce the seismic risk in specific ground motion. In this scenario, this study is focused on the construction of fragility curve of institutional reinforced concrete (RC) building of Pokhara University. For this, the building of School of Health and Allied Science (SHAS) is considered as a guiding case study. For the numerical analysis, the study building blocks are modelled in finite element-based software. The non-linear static and linear dynamic analyses are employed for numerical analysis. In dynamic analysis, building models are subjected to the synthetic accelerograms of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake. Based on the analyses, the analytical fragility curves are plotted in terms of probability of failure at every 0.1 g interval of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with log normal distribution. Finally, the results are highlighted for different seismic performance level in buildings: slight damage, moderate damage, extensive damage and complete damage for the earthquake of 475 years return period.

Risk Assessment of Aged Concrete Gravity Dam Subjected to Material Deterioration Under Seismic Excitation

This paper proposes an approach to assess and predict the seismic risk of existing concrete gravity dams (CGDs) considering the ageing effect. The combination of fragility function and cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) depending on two failure states has been used in the analysis. It represents the time-variant degradation of the concrete structure and the conditional change of structural vulnerability in the case of the seismic excitation. Therefore, the seismic risk assessment captures here the nonlinear dynamic behavior of a concrete gravity dam through the fragility analysis. Incremental dynamic analysis for the fragility curves is adopted to state the performance of the dam in terms of different intensity measures. To assess the capacity of the aged concrete gravity dam, this research introduces a way to estimate the CAVlimit of CGDs with varying time. For a case study, an existing concrete gravity dam in Korea has been taken into consideration to apply this approach. The numerical finite element model is validated by optimizing the recorded field data. The proposed approach and its findings will be helpful to CGDs operators to ensure whether a dam needs to stop after a specific time using the extracted mathematical model. Furthermore, as this mathematical model is the function of time, the operator can get an idea about dam conditions at any specific time and can take necessary steps.