Variability of CPT and tropopause characteristics over the Arabian Peninsula

. The climatology of the cold-point tropopause (CPT) and tropopause characteristics in a subtropical area like The Arabian Peninsula is examined using the radiosonde data of the CPT characteristics and NCEP Reanalysis data of the tropopause characteristics. The monthly mean data for January and July are analyzed for three stations, namely Medina, Tabuk and Dammam in Saudi Arabia. The trends of CPT and tropopause characteristics of pressure, height, temperature, temperature anomalies, relative humidity, wind speed and potential temperature are also analyzed. The trends of these characteristics show that they experienced a sharp change during the 1990s and a significant change for the period from 2000 to 2016. For the whole period of study, the month of July, CPT and tropopause pressure decreased for about 5 hPa, whereas the height increased for more than 100 m. The temperature experienced a sudden drop during the beginning of the 1990s and a smooth decrease during the following years in January. Furthermore, a strong correlation is found between the CPT temperature and the Solar Cycle during the ‘90s period then it decreased sharply after this period.

A Novel Bimodal Forecasting Model for Solar Cycle 25

In this paper, a novel bimodal model to predict a complete sunspot cycle based on comprehensive precursor information is proposed. We compare the traditional 13 month moving average with the Gaussian filter and find that the latter has less missing information and can better describe the overall trend of the raw data. Unlike the previous models that usually only use one precursor, here we combine the implicit and geometric information of the solar cycle (peak and skewness of the previous cycle and start value of the predicted cycle) with the traditional precursor method based on the geomagnetic index and adopt a multivariate linear approach with a higher goodness of fit (>0.85) in the fitting. Verifications for cycles 22–24 demonstrate that the model has good performance in predicting the peak and peak occurrence time. It also successfully predicts the complete bimodal structure for cycle 22 and cycle 24, showing a certain ability to predict whether the next solar cycle is unimodal or bimodal. It shows that cycle 25 is a single-peak structure and that the peak will come in 2024 October with a peak of 145.3.

Changes in the Near-surface Shear Layer of the Sun

We use helioseismic data obtained over two solar cycles to determine whether there are changes in the near-surface shear layer (NSSL). We examine this by determining the radial gradient of the solar rotation rate. The radial gradient itself shows a solar-cycle dependence, and the changes are more pronounced in the active latitudes than at adjoining higher latitudes; results at the highest latitudes (≳70°) are unreliable. The pattern changes with depth, even within the NSSL. We find that the near-surface shear layer is deeper at lower latitudes than at high latitudes and that the extent of the layer also shows a small solar-cycle-related change.

Multipoint Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Observed with Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Wind, and STEREO-A

We report the result of the first search for multipoint in situ and imaging observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) starting with the first Solar Orbiter (SolO) data in 2020 April–2021 April. A data exploration analysis is performed including visualizations of the magnetic-field and plasma observations made by the five spacecraft SolO, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe (PSP), Wind, and STEREO-A, in connection with coronagraph and heliospheric imaging observations from STEREO-A/SECCHI and SOHO/LASCO. We identify ICME events that could be unambiguously followed with the STEREO-A heliospheric imagers during their interplanetary propagation to their impact at the aforementioned spacecraft and look for events where the same ICME is seen in situ by widely separated spacecraft. We highlight two events: (1) a small streamer blowout CME on 2020 June 23 observed with a triple lineup by PSP, BepiColombo and Wind, guided by imaging with STEREO-A, and (2) the first fast CME of solar cycle 25 (≈1600 km s−1) on 2020 November 29 observed in situ by PSP and STEREO-A. These results are useful for modeling the magnetic structure of ICMEs and the interplanetary evolution and global shape of their flux ropes and shocks, and for studying the propagation of solar energetic particles. The combined data from these missions are already turning out to be a treasure trove for space-weather research and are expected to become even more valuable with an increasing number of ICME events expected during the rise and maximum of solar cycle 25.

Decades of Solar-driven geomagnetic disturbances impact homicide rates in Europe and the USA

Background: Homicides are the leading cause of death among young males. Conventional approaches to interpreting variations in criminality over time and across countries have failed to explain it.Methods: We applied ordinary least squared regressions on yearly homicide rates to identify the planetary drivers for homicides in Germany, the UK, and the USA over the past three solar cycles (22 to 24) between 1987 and 2018. We used the number of sunspots (solar activity), Kp and Ap indices (geomagnetic activity) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the German Research Centre for Geosciences DFZ-Potsdam, and weather variables from the countries’ meteorological organizations. Results: Our study revealed that lagged Kp NOAA index as a parameter of solar-driven geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) was the most important predictor to explain homicide rates in all three countries. Our results showed that over half the variance in homicide rates of all three countries could be attributed to GMD, not so by weather variables. We also predicted homicide rates peaking for 2025 and 2026 during the current 25th solar cycle, suggesting the current solar cycle could prove to be one of the most intense in a century, which would signal a concomitant increase in homicide rates. Based on the Italian experience in curbing homicides, we also suggest that collective agency may break what appears to be a deadly association between GMD and homicides.Conclusions: Our study suggests GMD may be involved in shaping human behavior and may help public and medical authorities prepare for eventual surges in homicides as the 25th solar cycle may induce stronger GMD.

Complexes of activity on the Sun in solar cycle 21

The paper provides statistical data on solar activity complexes (ACs) observed in solar cycle 21. From the synoptic charts for the 1976–1986 sunspot activity, we have detected the regions where the sunspot generation was observed at least through three Carrington Rotations (CRs). These regions were identified as AC cores. We have compiled an AC catalogue. ACs are shown to evolve quasi-periodically, in pulses that are 15–20 rotations long. We have analyzed the North-South asymmetry in the AC location. In cycle 21, 90 % of the proton flares that affected the natural environment are shown to have occurred in ACs. We note a tendency for AC activity to decrease, as well as the manifestation of the Gnevyshev—Ohl rule in AC properties, in solar cycles 21–24.