Learn to Intervene: An Adaptive Learning Policy for Restless Bandits in Application to Preventive Healthcare

In many public health settings, it is important for patients to adhere to health programs, such as taking medications and periodic health checks. Unfortunately, beneficiaries may gradually disengage from such programs, which is detrimental to their health. A concrete example of gradual disengagement has been observed by an organization that carries out a free automated call-based program for spreading preventive care information among pregnant women. Many women stop picking up calls after being enrolled for a few months. To avoid such disengagements, it is important to provide timely interventions. Such interventions are often expensive and can be provided to only a small fraction of the beneficiaries. We model this scenario as a restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem, where each beneficiary is assumed to transition from one state to another depending on the intervention. Moreover, since the transition probabilities are unknown a priori, we propose a Whittle index based Q-Learning mechanism and show that it converges to the optimal solution. Our method improves over existing learning-based methods for RMABs on multiple benchmarks from literature and also on the maternal healthcare dataset.

Fast Two-Stage Computation of an Index Policy for Multi-Armed Bandits with Setup Delays

We consider the multi-armed bandit problem with penalties for switching that include setup delays and costs, extending the former results of the author for the special case with no switching delays. A priority index for projects with setup delays that characterizes, in part, optimal policies was introduced by Asawa and Teneketzis in 1996, yet without giving a means of computing it. We present a fast two-stage index computing method, which computes the continuation index (which applies when the project has been set up) in a first stage and certain extra quantities with cubic (arithmetic-operation) complexity in the number of project states and then computes the switching index (which applies when the project is not set up), in a second stage, with quadratic complexity. The approach is based on new methodological advances on restless bandit indexation, which are introduced and deployed herein, being motivated by the limitations of previous results, exploiting the fact that the aforementioned index is the Whittle index of the project in its restless reformulation. A numerical study demonstrates substantial runtime speed-ups of the new two-stage index algorithm versus a general one-stage Whittle index algorithm. The study further gives evidence that, in a multi-project setting, the index policy is consistently nearly optimal.

A Fast-Pivoting Algorithm for Whittle’s Restless Bandit Index

The Whittle index for restless bandits (two-action semi-Markov decision processes) provides an intuitively appealing optimal policy for controlling a single generic project that can be active (engaged) or passive (rested) at each decision epoch, and which can change state while passive. It further provides a practical heuristic priority-index policy for the computationally intractable multi-armed restless bandit problem, which has been widely applied over the last three decades in multifarious settings, yet mostly restricted to project models with a one-dimensional state. This is due in part to the difficulty of establishing indexability (existence of the index) and of computing the index for projects with large state spaces. This paper draws on the author’s prior results on sufficient indexability conditions and an adaptive-greedy algorithmic scheme for restless bandits to obtain a new fast-pivoting algorithm that computes the n Whittle index values of an n-state restless bandit by performing, after an initialization stage, n steps that entail (2/3)n3+O(n2) arithmetic operations. This algorithm also draws on the parametric simplex method, and is based on elucidating the pattern of parametric simplex tableaux, which allows to exploit special structure to substantially simplify and reduce the complexity of simplex pivoting steps. A numerical study demonstrates substantial runtime speed-ups versus alternative algorithms.

A conservative index heuristic for routing problems with multiple heterogeneous service facilities

We consider a queueing system with N heterogeneous service facilities, in which admission and routing decisions are made when customers arrive and the objective is to maximize long-run average net rewards. For this type of problem, it is well-known that structural properties of optimal policies are difficult to prove in general and dynamic programming methods are computationally infeasible unless N is small. In the absence of an optimal policy to refer to, the Whittle index heuristic (originating from the literature on multi-armed bandit problems) is one approach which might be used for decision-making. After establishing the required indexability property, we show that the Whittle heuristic possesses certain structural properties which do not extend to optimal policies, except in some special cases. We also present results from numerical experiments which demonstrate that, in addition to being consistently strong over all parameter sets, the Whittle heuristic tends to be more robust than other heuristics with respect to the number of service facilities and the amount of heterogeneity between the facilities.