Approaches to Building Default Probability Models for Financial Instruments of Project Financing at Long Time Horizons

Project financing is one of the priority tools for stimulating the country's economic growth around the world, which allows the implementation of large-scale and capital-intensive projects, providing favorable credit conditions with insufficient creditworthiness of the project beneficiaries [1]. As a rule, project financing instruments are long-term (10-30 years, depending on the type of transaction), so this asset class is interesting for the implementation of the task of building long-term models for assessing credit risk associated with the introduction in 2018 of the new international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 "Financial Instruments". The new standard requires financial institutions to calculate their expected credit loss (ECL) at the time of granting loans and other banking products exposed to credit risk [2], taking into account different time horizons, which significantly changes the traditional approaches to assessing credit risk by commercial banks [3], [4]. As part of this work, a model was built to assess the long-term probability of default for the portfolio of assets of a Russian commercial bank belonging to the project finance segment in accordance with the requirements of the International Financial Reporting standard IFRS 9 "Financial Instruments". At present, the topic of this work is extremely relevant and may be of interest both for commercial banks that are faced with the problem of improving credit risk assessment models

Development of an Impairment Point in Time Probability of Default Model for Revolving Retail Credit Products: South African Case Study

A new methodology to derive IFRS 9 PiT PDs is proposed. The methodology first derives a PiT term structure with accompanying segmented term structures. Secondly, the calibration of credit scores using the Lorenz curve approach is used to create account-specific PD term structures. The PiT term structures are derived by using empirical information based on the most recent default information and account risk characteristics prior to default. Different PiT PD term structures are developed to capture the structurally different default risk patterns for different pools of accounts using segmentation. To quantify what a materially different term structure constitutes, three tests are proposed. Account specific PiT PDs are derived through the Lorenz curve calibration using the latest default experience and credit scores. The proposed methodology is illustrated on an actual dataset, using a revolving retail credit portfolio from a South African bank. The main advantages of the proposed methodology include the use of well-understood methods (e.g., Lorenz curve calibration, scorecards, term structure modelling) in the banking industry. Further, the inclusion of re-default events in the proposed IFRS 9 PD methodology will simplify the development of the accompanying IFRS 9 LGD model due to the reduced complexity for the modelling of cure cases. Moreover, attrition effects are naturally included in the PD term structures and no longer require a separate model. Lastly, the PD term structure is based on months since observation, and therefore the arrears cycle could be investigated as a possible segmentation.

Does Accounting Influence Finance? The Case of IFRS 9 and Fuel Hedging

Finance does influence accounting, for example it is known that hedge accounting under International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) (2019), IFRS 9 has been more aligned to risk management practice. Although, as commonly held, accounting represents the substance of economic events without modifying them, opportunities offered by a new accounting standard may affect finance strategies. This paper studies how the IASB (2019), IFRS 9 hedge accounting requirements versus IASB (2014), IAS 39 have modified fuel hedging practice for a sample of IFRS airlines. Hedge accounting under the new standard results to have been adopted by a very large proportion of the sample. Its new features of risk component hedges, accounting for time value of option, forward points, or basis spread in other comprehensive income (hereafter, OCI), and simplified effectiveness assessment have been exploited by most of the sampled companies, although a definite explanation as an accounting strategy is only partially disclosed. In a context where fuel cost is one, if not the most significant caption of operating expenses of airlines, IASB (2019), IFRS 9 has provided an incentive to expand the use of fuel hedging, at least for accounting purpose.

IFRS 9 Single Impairment Model: Semantics and Circularity? A Study in the Airline Industry

This paper studies a sample of airlines reporting under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) about three specific challenges in implementing International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) (2019), IFRS 9 requirements for impairment versus IASB, 2014, IAS 39: 1) expected versus incurred credit losses; 2) impairment scoping and elective simplifications; and 3) definition and use of default. First, there appears to be a strong indicator that the way airline companies have drawn the line between what future conditions should or should not be considered in estimating expected versus incurred credit losses has maintained the fundamental tenet in IFRS of representing the condition existing as of the end of the reporting period. Second, evidence of companies quests for IASB (2019), IFRS 9 impairment simplifications attests to the criticism that the alleged single model of impairment is in effect a complex collection of different techniques. Finally, the degree of specific application that IASB (2019), IFRS 9 requires for the definition and use of default, as well as the customization of what triggers a significant change in the risk of default since initial recognition, does not appear to have been fully received, and sufficiently disclosed in the financial statements.

Análise dos principais impactos na provisão para perdas estimadas com créditos de liquidação duvidosa ocasionados pela implementação da norma IFRS 9 em instituições financeiras

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar os principais impactos ocasionados pela implementação das normas internacionais (IFRS) para o cálculo da PECLD – Provisão para Perdas Estimadas com Crédito de Liquidação Duvidosa no percentual de provisão das operações de crédito das instituições financeiras que atuam no Brasil. O referencial teórico aborda os conceitos necessários para o entendimento acerca de crédito e provisão para crédito de liquidação duvidosa. Além disso, são expostos os requerimentos mínimos da Resolução CMN 2.682/99 bem como os requerimentos mínimos da IFRS 9. Para analisar o impacto mencionado, foram analisadas três instituições financeiras que atuam no Brasil, e para tal análise tabulou-se os dados da carteira de crédito (exposição) bem como da provisão nos sites de tais instituições. Por meio de uma metodologia descritiva, comparou-se o percentual de cobertura da provisão em relação à exposição da carteira de crédito dos dados publicados em IFRS e BRGAAP. Observou-se que todas as instituições financeiras analisadas apresentaram exposição e provisão de crédito de liquidação duvidosa na publicação IFRS superior a publicação segundo o BRGAAP (PECLD mínima), conforme expectativa.

Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Accounting for Financial Instruments

The study of financial instruments, based on international standards, showed us: That the role and importance of financial instruments is paramount to the proper functioning of a country's economy. Accordingly, commercial banks record financial instruments in accordance with international standards. With the transition from IAS 39 to IFRS 9, TBC Bank has changed its methods of recognizing and valuing financial instruments; As a result of adopting IFRS 9, TBC Bank reduced its credit loss as its valuation methods changed; TBC Bank, in accordance with international standards, always determines the expected credit loss. Constantly monitors loans and reclassifies them if necessary. The loan is assessed as modified. Differences caused by the modification are reflected in profit or loss. In 2020, the loss of net modification of financial instruments amounted to GEL 41.0 million. As a result of the transition to the new standard in TBC Bank, the total amount of reserves increased by 63,600 thousand GE. In the conditions of the pandemic, amendments were made to IFRS-9. Which is due to changes in benchmark interest rates such as LIBOR and other interbank offered rates. The Board of Directors also decided not to recommend a dividend On March 20, 2020, TBC Leasing, with the assistance of TBC Capital, placed secured bonds in the amount of GEL 58.4 million on the Georgian Stock Exchange. In our opinion, according to IFRS 9, special attention should be paid to forecast information when assessing credit risks. In particular, the assessment of expected credit losses should take into account expected trends in the macroeconomic and financial environment and local and global risks. This will facilitate the timely recording of credit risks and thus have a positive impact on financial stability.

i, The Impact of Adoption of IFRS 9 on the Value Relevance Accounting Information for the Companies Listed in ISX

This research aims to know the effect of adopting IFRS 9 on the relevance of the value of the accounting information of the companies in the Iraqi Stock Exchange. Researchers relied on analyzing the financial statements of 10 listed companies for years 2016 – 2019. Researchers used the Ohlson price model to test the relationship between accounting information and value relevance. The research indicated that there is a significant relationship between the adoption of IFRS 9 and the relevance of the value of the earnings and the book value, but the earnings information is more relevance than the book value information, it is due to the interest of investors in the income statement in making investment decisions.