scholarly journals Approaches to Building Default Probability Models for Financial Instruments of Project Financing at Long Time Horizons

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 66-87
Author(s):  
Alfia Vasilieva
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Project Financing ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Ifrs 9

  Project financing is one of the priority tools for stimulating the country's economic growth around the world, which allows the implementation of large-scale and capital-intensive projects, providing favorable credit conditions with insufficient creditworthiness of the project beneficiaries [1]. As a rule, project financing instruments are long-term (10-30 years, depending on the type of transaction), so this asset class is interesting for the implementation of the task of building long-term models for assessing credit risk associated with the introduction in 2018 of the new international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 "Financial Instruments". The new standard requires financial institutions to calculate their expected credit loss (ECL) at the time of granting loans and other banking products exposed to credit risk [2], taking into account different time horizons, which significantly changes the traditional approaches to assessing credit risk by commercial banks [3], [4]. As part of this work, a model was built to assess the long-term probability of default for the portfolio of assets of a Russian commercial bank belonging to the project finance segment in accordance with the requirements of the International Financial Reporting standard IFRS 9 "Financial Instruments". At present, the topic of this work is extremely relevant and may be of interest both for commercial banks that are faced with the problem of improving credit risk assessment models  

IFRS 9 «FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS» IN THE CONTEXT OF SECURITY ECONOMIC SECURITY OF CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Алена Михайловна Кабанова ◽  
Людмила Ивановна Кругляк
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Credit Institutions

В статье рассматриваются актуальные особенности Между-народного стандарта финансовой отчетности (IFRS) 9 при их внедрении в российской банковской отчетности. Применение МФСО требует новых знаний, принципов и навыков специалистов соответствующих служб. МСФО - это не свод строгих, конкретных правил, а определенный набор требований и принципов. The article discusses the current features of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 in the implementation and transformation of Russian banking reporting. The application of IFRS requires new knowledge, principles and skills of specialists of the relevant services. IFRS is not a set of strict, specific rules, but a specific set of requirements and principles.

scholarly journals Methods of Calculation of Expected Credit Losses Under Requirements of IFRS 9

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 74-86
Author(s):  
Alfiya Vasilyeva ◽  
Elvina Frolova
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Credit Risks ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Credit Losses

The most important area of work for financial market regulators including International Accounting Standards Board is to clarify the metrics of credit assessment. This problem became particularly relevant after the financial crisis of 2008, when the insolvency of approaches to the assessment of credit risks adopted under the then international financial reporting standard IFRS (IAS) 39 became apparent, since credit losses on financial instruments were taken into account by the “loss model”, and therefore, the asset was recognized as financially impaired due to the fact of credit quality deterioration and significant time lag. From 1 January 2018 of a new international financial reporting standard IFRS9 IFRS 9 is based on a different approach — the principle of “expected credit losses” (ECL). The transition to IFRS 9 is intended to strengthen the banking system by increasing reserves , the banking system’s stability can be increased also. The new business model radically changes the approach to the formation of reserves, including by taking into account the impact of macroeconomic indicators on their value. According to various estimates, the scale of increase in reserves ranges from 30% to 50%. The purpose of this article is to systematize the methodological principles and approaches that underlie the requirements of IFRS 9 (basic and simplified and POCI approaches), as well as a comparison of the main methods for assessing the probability of default and expected credit losses (Weibul distribution, migration matrix, generator matrix ) In the framework of this article, the authors formulated criteria for the transfer of assets between the stages of credit risk (stage), and also formulated the principles for calculating expected credit risks for each stage, taking into account macroeconomic factors. This article is of practical value, as it can be the basis for the development of methods for calculating the expected credit risks of corporate clients of commercial banks, and can also be used to improve credit risk management models.

scholarly journals Adapting the Default Weighted Survival Analysis Modelling Approach to Model IFRS 9 LGD

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Morne Joubert ◽  
Tanja Verster ◽  
Helgard Raubenheimer ◽  
Willem D. Schutte
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Survival Curve ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Ifrs 9

Survival analysis is one of the techniques that could be used to predict loss given default (LGD) for regulatory capital (Basel) purposes. When using survival analysis to model LGD, a proposed methodology is the default weighted survival analysis (DWSA) method. This paper is aimed at adapting the DWSA method (used to model Basel LGD) to estimate the LGD for International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 impairment requirements. The DWSA methodology allows for over recoveries, default weighting and negative cashflows. For IFRS 9, this methodology should be adapted, as the estimated LGD is a function of in the expected credit losses (ECL). Our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology makes use of survival analysis to estimate the LGD. The Cox proportional hazards model allows for a baseline survival curve to be adjusted to produce survival curves for different segments of the portfolio. The forward-looking LGD values are adjusted for different macro-economic scenarios and the ECL is calculated for each scenario. These ECL values are probability weighted to produce a final ECL estimate. We illustrate our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology and ECL estimation on a dataset from a retail portfolio of a South African bank.

scholarly journals Internal model for IFRS 9 - Expected credit losses calculation

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hrvoje Volarević ◽  
Mario Varović
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Internal Model ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
External Data ◽  
Simple Implementation ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Credit Losses

This article explores and analyzes the implementation problem of International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) which is in use from 1 January 2018. IFRS 9 is most relevant for financial institutions, but also for all business subjects with a significant share of financial assets in their Balance sheet. The main objective of this article is the implementation of new impairment model for financial instruments, which is measurable through Expected Credit Losses (ECL). The use of this model is in correlation with a credit risk of the company for which it is necessary to determine basic variables of the model: Exposure at Default (EAD), Loss Given Default (LGD) and Probability of Default (PD). Basel legislation could be used for LGD calculation while PD calculation is based on specific methodology with two different solutions. In the first option, PD is taken as an external data from reliable rating agencies. When there is no external rating, an internal model for PD calculation has to be created. In order to develop an internal model, authors of this article propose application of multi-criteria decision-making model based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Input data in the model are based on information from financial statements while MS Excel is used for calculation of such multi-criteria problem. Results of internal model are mathematically related with PD values for each analyzed company. Simple implementation of this internal model is an advantage compared to other much more complicated models.

scholarly journals Improved forecast assessment for the expected credit losses in credit risk monitoring in commercial banks in the context of international and Russian practices

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 445-457
Author(s):  
Elena Vladimirovna Travkina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Credit Risk Assessment ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Credit Losses

Current banking sector’s performance raises the issues connected with the IFRS 9 Financial Instruments driven transformation of the forecast assessment for the expected credit losses during monitoring and credit risk assessment in commercial banks. In this regard, it becomes important to conduct a comprehensive systematization of the existing Russian and international practices for monitoring and evaluating credit risk in commercial banks. The purpose of the study is to develop a comprehensive approach to the use of an effective model for the impairment of expected losses in banking activities. The novelty of the study includes the enhancement of the tools for the forecast assessment of the expected credit losses among the commercial banks’ clients to improve the credit risk management efficiency. The results from the implementation of IFRS 9 Financial Instruments in the banking area show that modern conditions maintain the uncertainty of the long-term impact of the credit risk on the commercial banks’ performance. What is more, a huge amount of additional information gives significant difficulties, which contributes into the sophisticated calculations of the future credit losses of the banks. It has been justified that a forecast assessment model for the expected credit losses of the clients during the monitoring and bank’s credit risk assessment should be based on the collective or individual ground. The efficient application of the expected losses impairment in the banking performance has been described as a fundamental tool to simulate the expected credit losses to provision for impairment. This model has been shown to be determined by the features of the credit activities and bank portfolio, types of its financial tools, sources of the available information, as well as the applied IT systems. The proposed model validation algorithm for the expected impairment losses could reduce the expected credit losses, decrease the volume of the created assessed reserves, as well as improve the overall commercial bank performance efficiency. Theoretically, the study develops the credit losses risk management in the context of the transformations in the global and Russian banking practices. From the perspective of the practical value, the research gives an opportunity to create an efficient forecast assessment model for the expected credit losses of the commercial banks’ clients, this model contributing into the cost effectiveness of the bank’s credit activities. A promising further research is considered to be aimed at developing the tools for the assessment of the commercial banks’ credit activity results in the context of the adopted changes connected with the introduction of IFRS 9 Financial Instruments in the Russian banking sector.

scholarly journals Recent Regulation in Credit Risk Management: A Statistical Framework

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Logan Ewanchuk ◽  
Christoph Frei
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Early Recognition ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Income Volatility ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Statistical Framework ◽  
Default Data

A recently introduced accounting standard, namely the International Financial Reporting Standard 9, requires banks to build provisions based on forward-looking expected loss models. When there is a significant increase in credit risk of a loan, additional provisions must be charged to the income statement. Banks need to set for each loan a threshold defining what such a significant increase in credit risk constitutes. A low threshold allows banks to recognize credit risk early, but leads to income volatility. We introduce a statistical framework to model this trade-off between early recognition of credit risk and avoidance of excessive income volatility. We analyze the resulting optimization problem for different models, relate it to the banking stress test of the European Union, and illustrate it using default data by Standard and Poor’s.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Differences in Terms of Professional Interests Based on the Project to Replace IAS 39

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (68) ◽  
pp. 181-194
Author(s):  
Cláudia Daniela Ferreira da Mota Carvalho ◽  
Fábio Henrique Ferreira de Albuquerque ◽  
Joaquín Texeira Quirós ◽  
Maria do Rosário Fernandes Justino
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Professional Associations ◽  
International Accounting ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Harmonization Process ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Ias 39

<p>The professional interests of the various stakeholders groups are often seen as obstacles to full accounting harmonization. Studying different professional interests in the accounting domain is significant for organizations involved in the international accounting harmonization process, insofar as it enables them to identify the main obstacles to face in order to achieve full harmonization. Thus, this article is aimed at analyzing the differences in terms of professional interests by addressing the participation of various stakeholders groups in the process of issuing/modifying standards of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). Based on content analysis, we examined the comment letters sent to the IASB in the context of the first part of the first phase of the project to replace the International Accounting Standard (IAS) 39, entitled "Financial Instruments - Recognition and Measurement", by the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9, on its turn entitled "Financial Instruments". Respondents were identified according to the stakeholders group, and, later, the collected data underwent a nonparametric chi-square test. The results of this study indicate there are significant differences between the answers obtained from the various stakeholders groups involved in the process of issuing or reviewing a standard of the IASB, above all made clear between the group of financial preparers and the regulatory and/or standard-setting agencies and the professional associations related to accounting.</p>

scholarly journals Analytical study of the implications of the adoption of IFRS 9 on the credit and financing policies of Arab banks: دراسة تحليلية للآثار المترتبة على تبني IFRS 9 على السياسات الائتمانية والتمويلية للمصارف العربية

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salah Ali Ahmed Mohammed - Mahjoub Abdullah Hamid
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Accounting Systems ◽  
Financing Policies ◽  
Standard Application ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Application Requirements

The objective of this study was to analyze the anticipated effects of the application of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS9), which replaced the International Standard ( IAS 39), on the Arab banks. The obligatory application of the new standard will take place on the beginning of 2018. The application requirements of this standard constitute a great challenge to the Arab banks, in the fields of credits, finance and the banking and accounting systems. The study represented the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS 9) and the requirements of classification and measurement of the obligations, with special focus on the differences between the two standards. The study as well, focused on the challenges which face the standard application and the effect of this application on the banking system, with special focus on the expected credits loss (ECL). The study represented examples of some Arab banks experiences and evaluated these experiences. The study has come out with some results, including that the change of the (ECL) model will create some impediments on the credit and finance policies of the Arab banks, whereas the standard (IFRS9) will strengthen the shareholders and depositors trust, because it adopts a perceptional policy which avoids the expected loss which, in turn, reduces the liquidity risk and the failure of the obligations payment. The study also proposed some recommendations.

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