Development of an Impairment Point in Time Probability of Default Model for Revolving Retail Credit Products: South African Case Study

A new methodology to derive IFRS 9 PiT PDs is proposed. The methodology first derives a PiT term structure with accompanying segmented term structures. Secondly, the calibration of credit scores using the Lorenz curve approach is used to create account-specific PD term structures. The PiT term structures are derived by using empirical information based on the most recent default information and account risk characteristics prior to default. Different PiT PD term structures are developed to capture the structurally different default risk patterns for different pools of accounts using segmentation. To quantify what a materially different term structure constitutes, three tests are proposed. Account specific PiT PDs are derived through the Lorenz curve calibration using the latest default experience and credit scores. The proposed methodology is illustrated on an actual dataset, using a revolving retail credit portfolio from a South African bank. The main advantages of the proposed methodology include the use of well-understood methods (e.g., Lorenz curve calibration, scorecards, term structure modelling) in the banking industry. Further, the inclusion of re-default events in the proposed IFRS 9 PD methodology will simplify the development of the accompanying IFRS 9 LGD model due to the reduced complexity for the modelling of cure cases. Moreover, attrition effects are naturally included in the PD term structures and no longer require a separate model. Lastly, the PD term structure is based on months since observation, and therefore the arrears cycle could be investigated as a possible segmentation.

Improving regulatory capital allocation: a case for the internal ratings-based approach for retail credit risk exposures

Purpose The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the internal ratings-based (IRB) approach provides more effective risk discrimination than the standardized approach when calculating regulatory capital for retail credit risk exposures. Design/methodology/approach The author uses four retail credit data sets to compare regulatory capital appropriation using the IRB approach and the standardized approach. The author follows the regulatory capital calculation method recommended under Basel III. For the IRB approach, the author uses a logistic regression to determine the probability of default. Findings The results suggest that the IRB approach provides more effective risk discrimination across individual exposures, which allows more regulatory capital to be held against riskier exposures and less regulatory capital to be held against less risky exposures. The author further argues that the Basel III output floor, as presently constructed, may disincentivize the use of the IRB approach and further diminish the value of secured lending under the IRB approach. To address this issue, the author offers two simple adjustments to the current design of the output floor. Originality/value While studies have argued the idea of risk-sensitive regulatory capital, the author has not observed any research that empirically compares the risk-sensitivity of regulatory capital across retail credit exposures, which makes up a significant portion of many banks’ credit exposures. This study also highlights what appears to be a major point of concern for the output floor, which is set to be phased in starting January 2022. This is of particular value because this point has not appeared to receive any attention in the literature thus far.

‘Don’t Crunch My Credit’: Member State Governments’ Preferences on Bank Capital Requirements

Across Europe, banks remain, to this day, the main suppliers of finance to the European economy, but also a source of systemic risk. As such, regulating them requires that policymakers find an appropriate balance between restricting their risk-taking behaviour and increasing lending to support economic growth. However, the ‘varieties of financial capitalism’ that characterize national banking sectors in Europe mean that the adoption of harmonised capital requirements has different effects across countries, depending on the country-specific institutional setting through which banks provide lending to the national economy. This article conducts a new analysis of Member State governments’ positions in the post-financial crisis reform of the EU capital requirements legislation, expanding the scope of previous studies on the topic. Here, I examine in detail the positions of Member States on a wider set of issues and for a broader set of countries than the existing literature. Building on the varieties of financial capitalism approach, I explain these positions with regard to structural features of national banking sectors. I find that Member State governments’ positions reveal a general agreement with the proposed increase of bank capital requirements, while seeking targeted exemptions and preferential treatment that they deem necessary to preserve their domestic supply of retail credit.

Credit Limit of Unsecured Consumer Lending: Evidence from Micro Data

As credit card debts have increased in Indonesia over the past ten years, concerns over the impulsive buying behavior of Indonesian credit card holders have emerged. Therefore, more attention must be paid to credit risk management of banks as it plays an important role in analyzing the possibility of losses due to the inability of prospective borrowers to repay debts. This study provides empirical evidence about the prudence of commercial banks in Greater Jakarta in offering credit card limits. Using primary micro-data collected from credit card applications submitted to the largest foreign private bank providing retail credit in the Greater Jakarta area in 2019, this study employed multiple regression model to analyze the determinants of credit card limits in the Greater Jakarta. Our empirical findings suggest that age, home location, income, type of industry, and office location of prospective borrowers significantly influence credit card limits. Commercial banks in the Greater Jakarta, thus, have been prudent in offering credit card limits.

Click to Buy: The Impact of Retail Credit on Over-Consumption in the Online Environment

There is growing concern that worldwide cultures of consumption have had detrimental consequences for individual wellbeing and sustainability of the environment. The term “overconsumption” exemplifies the tension between mutually beneficial producer–consumer exchange and the damaging effects of excess. In search of a pathway toward reducing overconsumption practise, sustainability literature is often interested in better understanding not only why overconsumption occurs, but what facilitates it in particular consumer markets. Young adults are one group of consumers where transitioning identities and lifestyles see impulsive consumption of goods that are often termed “non-essential”, such as fashion and apparel products. This study explores the impact of a set of impulse enabling financial tools (buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) credit schemes) on impulse buying tendency in an online fashion shopping context, for young adult female consumers. The paper contributes a consumer perspective on the impact of BNPL on unsustainable consumption behaviour in the online retail setting, which the literature currently lacks, by considering consumers’ impulse buying tendencies in such a setting. Findings demonstrate that BNPL users have a higher online impulse buying tendency than those who do not use BNPL, and a clear link is identified between online impulse buying tendency and sales conversion tool sensitivity, thus promoting overconsumption in this setting.

Republic of Kazakhstan

The political transition has increased the focus on social conditions and regional and rural development. Growth has been buoyed by new spending, retail credit, and oil and gas investments. Inflation has picked up, and the current account has deteriorated. Renewed fiscal consolidation is planned from 2020. Non-oil growth is expected to moderate to 4 percent (potential), as construction, fiscal stimulus, and household borrowing ease. Growth could be higher if decisive reforms drive productivity gains. The state continues to play a strong role in the economy, and the authorities face challenges ensuring that measures are well targeted and effective in promoting private sector growth. The challenges include oil volatility and dependency, reliance on subsidies and other state support, still-impaired banks, and governance vulnerabilities. The authorities are exploring ways to strengthen the fiscal framework, assessing monetary and exchange policies, undertaking a bank asset quality review (AQR), and establishing an independent financial sector regulator. Progress is being made on headline reforms, but ensuring decisive changes on the ground remains a challenge. Risks relate to oil prices and trading partner growth.