Shocks vs Menu Costs: Patterns of Price Rigidity in an Estimated Multi-Sector Menu-Cost Model

Sectoral heterogeneity matters for monetary policy. Using CPI microdata, we estimate for 227 products a time–varying menu-cost model to investigate the quantitative relevance of this heterogeneity. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectoral heterogeneity in all structural parameters. Heterogeneity in the Calvo component of the pricing friction is however the main source of heterogeneity in price rigidity. Cross-sectoral heterogeneity amplifies the output effect of a monetary shock by a factor of about 2.5, compared to a single-sector model estimated with mean moments. Heterogeneity in the Calvo parameter plays a key role in this amplification.

Temporary Price Changes, Inflation Regimes, and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks

We present a sticky price model that features the coexistence of many price changes, most of which are temporary, with a modest flexibility of the aggregate price level. Stickiness is introduced in the form of a price plan, namely a set of two prices: either price can be charged at any moment but changing the plan entails a menu cost. We analytically solve for the optimal plan and for the aggregate output response to a monetary shock. We present evidence consistent with the model implications using scanner data, as well as Consumer Price Index data across a wide range of inflation rates. (JEL D22, E31, E52, L11, O11, O23)

The Effect of Sales and Evidence from Micro Data

The concept of menu cost indicates that firms are facing a fixed menu cost when they want to change the nominal prices. However, the standard menu cost model is hardly to explain the observed facts from micro-level data, especially in terms of sales. In this paper, we investigate the effect of sales through a novel product-level dataset. There are at least three findings from our estimation results. First, we find that retail sales themselves, rather than price decreases, have a large effect on consumers’ purchases. Second, consumers are more prices sensitive when the product is on sale than they are when the product is not on sale. Third, consumers are far more aware of price decreases than price increases.

How Frequent Are Small Price Changes?

Recent empirical work suggests that small price changes are relatively common. This evidence has been used to criticize classic menu-cost models. In this paper, we use scanner data from a national supermarket chain and micro data from the Consumer Price Index to reassess the importance of small price changes. We argue that the vast majority of these changes are due to measurement error. We conclude that the evidence on the prevalence of small price changes is much too weak to be used as a litmus test of nominal rigidity models. (JEL C82, E31, L11, L81)