US financial services will help mainstream cryptos

Significance Yet snowballing interest outpaces crypto's use in any of the three main roles of money: a medium of exchange, unit of account or store of value. Crypto accounts for a sliver of US financial assets and retail sales. It remains overshadowed by its reputation as the currency of cybercriminals. Impacts Safeguards to prevent criminals from exploiting crypto will hinder legitimate crypto innovation. Transaction monitoring and know-your-customer due diligence will become a higher priority for crypto exchanges, reducing anonymity. Crypto's non-correlation with equity and bond price movements, an investor attraction, will lessen with broader use

Forecasting Aggregate Retail Sales with Google Trends

As the internet grows in popularity, many purchases are being made in online stores. Google Trends is an online tool that collects data on user queries and forms categories from them. We forecast the dynamics of both aggregate retail sales and individual categories of food and non-food products using macroeconomic variables and Google Trends categories that correspond to various product groups. For each type of retail, we consider the best forecasting models from macroeconomic variables and try to improve them by adding trends. For these purposes, we use pseudo-out-of-sample nowcasting as well as recursive forecasting several months ahead. We conclude that forecasts for food and non-food products can improve significantly once trends are added to the models.

French fashion and textile during COVID-19. Once again, flying to high quality and innovation to survive

This article studies the consequences of the COVID-19 global health crisis on the fashion and textile industry in France. This crisis is only part of an already long, slow decline in the industry. The paper analyzes the composition and organization of textile industry. It offers data related to: sales, consumption, employees, company size, as well as imports and exports - all highlighting the importance of fashion and textiles in France today. The paper shows how lockdown has asphyxiated production and retail sales. COVID-19 caused the appearance of new challenges: mask production, new aspects of CSR in luxury textiles and the development of antiviral fabrics. Mask production can be considered as a case study useful in the analysis of textile challenges. In this context, the French textile industry should continue to improve on innovation and quality. Promoting labelling on the global market can help the sector to develop its high-end. France is credible to expanding its fashion and textile supply in luxury.

Changes in the dollar value of per capita alcohol, essential, and non-essential retail sales in Canada during COVID-19

Background Multiple survey reports suggest that alcohol use has increased in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, less is known about how per capita alcohol sales, which predict population-level alcohol use, have changed and whether changes in alcohol sales differ from changes in sales of other products due to pandemic factors. Methods We obtained monthly retail sales data by industry from Statistics Canada, for the six largest provinces in Canada (containing 93% of the national population), between January 2010 and November 2020, representing time before and 9 months after the start of the pandemic in Canada. We used an interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic impacts on the dollar value of monthly per capita (per individuals 15+ years) alcohol, essential and non-essential retail sales. We adjusted our analyses for pre-pandemic sales trends, inflation, seasonality and changing population demographics over time. Results During the first 9 months of the pandemic, the values of per capita alcohol, essential and non-essential sales were, respectively, 13.2% higher, 3.6% higher and 13.1% lower than the average values during the same period in the prior 3 years. Interrupted time series models showed significant level change for the value of monthly per capita alcohol sales (+$4.86, 95% CIs: 2.88, 6.83), essential sales (−$59.80, 95% CIs: − 78.47, − 41.03) and non-essential sales (−$308.70, 95% CIs: − $326.60, − 290.79) during the pandemic. Alcohol sales were consistently elevated during the pandemic, and the pre- and post-pandemic slopes were comparable. In contrast, essential and non-essential retail sales declined in the early months of the pandemic before returning to regular spending levels. Conclusion During the first 9 months of the pandemic, per capita alcohol sales were moderately elevated in Canada. In contrast, non-essential sales were lower than prior years, driven by large decreases during the initial months of the pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic was associated with increased population-level alcohol consumption, which may lead to increased alcohol-related harms. Ongoing research is needed to examine how factors, including pandemic-related stressors and specific alcohol sales-related policies, may have influenced changes in alcohol use and harms.

Online-Exclusive or Hybrid? Channel Merchandising Strategies for Ship-to-Store Implementation

We study how merchandising products as online-exclusive (i.e., products available only online) versus hybrid (i.e., products available both online and offline) can improve the performance of ship-to-store (STS) services, an omnichannel retail fulfillment initiative that allows customers to pick up their online orders in-store. First, using a stylized model, we theoretically demonstrate that although STS is likely to increase sales, it may also entail the risk of losing some customers by exposing them to alternative products at nearby competitors during in-store pickup visits. Online-exclusive products and hybrid products are subject to this tradeoff at different degrees. To minimize the risk of STS, we theoretically propose a channel merchandising strategy for the STS implementation. Next, we empirically test our theoretical predictions using data from an omnichannel retailer that launched the STS functionality. We also conduct an empirical counterfactual analysis to quantify the benefits of our proposed channel merchandising strategy. Overall, our theoretical model coupled with the empirical analysis suggests that to improve the performance of STS implementation, an omnichannel retailer should offer (i) products that are somewhat generic, low-priced, and with high in-store availability as online-exclusive and (ii) products that are somewhat unique, high-priced, and with low in-store availability as hybrid. The counterfactual analysis reveals that the proposed channel merchandising strategy can improve STS performance by increasing overall retail sales by another 2.7% for the focal retailer. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.

RELAKSASI FASILITAS TIDAK DIPUNGUT CUKAI MMEA KADAR RENDAH DIKEMAS UNTUK PENJUALAN ECERAN

The trading of low-level alcoholic beverages (kombucha and kefir) has recently become massive. The Excise Law states any level of alcoholic beverages may lead to enforcement actions (Excisable Goods). Kombucha and Kefir are mostly produced by household-scale industries and packaged for retail sales. The Excise Law has facilities that are not subject to the Unimposing of the Excise. This study aims to analyze the position of low-level alcoholic beverages, especially its relationship with the implementation of the Excise Law. Using qualitative-interpretative methods, with data/observations for the years 2020-2021. Using secondary data in the form of sales of kombucha and kefir sourced from the Indonesian marketplace. With the type of ratio scale quantitative data. The results indicated Kombucha and kefir for retail sales packaging are Unimposing of the Excise. The short-term solution to legalize the business of making low-level alcoholic beverages is to comply with Unimposing of the Excise according to international best practice and also in line with the Indonesian Council of Religious Scholars which states that fermented beverage products containing alcohol are less than 0.5% legally halal if medical harm. The long-term solution is to reconstruct articles in the Excise Law relating to the alcoholic beverages definition as well as articles relating to free excise and exemption from excise through amendments to the Excise Law. Keywords: Alcoholic Beverages, Excisable Goods, Kefir, Kombucha, Unimposing of the Excise Perdagangan minuman yang mengandung etil alkohol (MMEA) kadar rendah (kombukha dan kefir) akhir-akhir ini semakin masif. UU Cukai menyatakan MMEA dalam kadar berapa pun merupakan barang kena cukai (BKC). Kombukha (kombucha) dan kefir sebagian besar dihasilkan industri skala rumah tangga, namun dikemas untuk penjualan eceran. Dalam UU Cukai terdapat fasilitas tidak dipungut cukai sesuai kriteria. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis posisi MMEA kadar rendah, terutama hubungannya dengan implementasi UU Cukai di lapangan. Metode yang digunakan adalah kualitatif-interpretatif, dengan data/pengamatan selama tahun 2020-2021. Data sekunder yang digunakan berupa jumlah penjualan kombukha dan kefir yang bersumber pada marketplace Indonesia dengan jenis data kuantitatif skala rasio. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kombukha dan kefir dikemas untuk penjualan eceran sehingga tidak termasuk kriteria fasilitas tidak dipungut cukai. Solusi dalam jangka pendek untuk melegalkan usaha pembuat MMEA kadar rendah adalah relaksasi ketentuan tentang tidak dipungut cukai sesuai best practice internasional. Selain itu, selaras dengan Fatwa MUI yang menyatakan bahwa minuman hasil fermentasi yang mengandung alkohol dengan kadar kurang dari 0,5%, hukumnya halal jika secara medis tidak membahayakan. Solusi jangka panjang adalah merekonstruksi kembali pasal-pasal dalam UU Cukai yang berkaitan dengan definisi MMEA, cukai tidak dipungut maupun pembebasan cukai melalui amandemen UU Cukai. Kata Kunci: barang kena cukai, kefir, kombucha, MMEA, tidak dipungut cukai.

It’s the Weather: Quantifying the Impact of Weather on Retail Sales

The weather is considered as an influential factor on consumer purchasing behaviours and plays a significant role in many aspects of retail sector decision making. As a result, better understanding of the magnitude and nature of the influence of variable UK weather conditions can be beneficial to many retailers and other stakeholders. This study addresses the dearth of research in this area by quantifying the relationship between different weather conditions and trading outcomes. By employing comprehensive daily sales data for a major high street retailer with over 2000 stores across England and adopting a random forest methodology, the study quantifies the influence of various weather conditions on daily retail sales. Results indicate that weather impact is greatest in the summer and spring months and that wind is consistently found to be the most influential weather condition. The top five most weather-dependent categories cover a range of different product types, with health foods emerging as the most susceptible to the weather. Also, sales from out-of-town stores show a far more complex relationship with the weather than those from traditional high street stores with the regions London and the South East experiencing the greatest levels of influence. Various implications of these findings for retail stakeholders are discussed and the scope for further research outlined.