RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Turkey in the Period 2004–2015

The paper provides, for the first time, a long-term (>10 years) analysis of anomalous transients in Earth’s emitted radiation over Turkey and neighbouring regions. The RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) approach is used to identify Significant Sequences of Thermal Anomalies (SSTAs) over about 12 years (May 2004 to October 2015) of night-time MSG-SEVIRI satellite images. The correlation analysis is performed with earthquakes with M ≥ 4, which occurred in the investigated period/region within a pre-defined space-time volume around SSTA occurrences. It confirms, also for Turkey, the possibility to qualify SSTAs among the candidate parameters of a multi-parametric system for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH). After analysing about 4000 images (about 400 million of single satellite records), just 155 SSTAs (about 4 every 100 images) were isolated; 115 (74% out of the total) resulted in earthquake-related (false-positive rate 26%). Results of the error diagram confirms a non-casual correlation between RST-based SSTAs and earthquake occurrences, with probability gain values up to 2.2 in comparison with the random guess. The analysis, separately performed on Turkish areas characterized by different faults and earthquakes densities, demonstrates the SSTA correlation with a dynamic seismicity more than with static tectonic settings.

Updating the Earth remote sensing software for the detection of thermal anomalies

O b j e c t i v e s. The task of improving the software package for detecting thermal anomalies based on meteorologicalsatellite data developed by the unitary enterprise "Geoinformation Systems" was solved.M e t h o d s. In the period from 2015 to the present, the work on practical testing and improvement of the software for natural fires detection has been carried out. For this purpose, satellite images of the territory of Belarus obtained from NOAA series spacecraft were used. Special attention was paid to the problem of improving the accuracy of determining the coordinates of fires and reducing the time required for initial data processing.Re s u l t s. A retrospective analysis of the main stages of improving the software for natural fires detection and obtained during practical tests generalized results are provided. The description of the web service developed on the basis of the software for detecting natural fires is presented.Co n c l u s i o n. The information can be useful for the specialists and researchers who are engaged in the detection of thermal anomalies (fires) using remote sensing data from meteorological satellites.

Upper air circulation and thermal anomalies over India and neighbourhood vis-à-vis Indian summer monsoon activity

The three dimensional circulation and thermal anomaly features associated with droughts and floods India are examined using 20 year of upper wind data over India and neighbourhood. The analysis reveals that years of droughts (floods) in India are associated with cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomalies and cold (warm) thermal anomalies in the troposphere between 500 hPa and 200 hPa over northwestern India. In drought years (flood years) upper tropospheric westerly (easterly) anomalies are observed in the lower latitudes in the months of May and June. Tibetan anticyclone shifted to east of its normal position in drought years , during the month of June. The correlation coefficient between the meridional component of the wind at 200 hPa over northwestern India and the summer monsoon rainfall found to be -0.72 which is significant.

Formation and assessment of ecological risks of urban landscapes in industrial cities of Belarus

The problems of the formation of hazardous natural and man-made processes in industrial cities, contributing to the emergence of environmental risks, are presented. To date, an extensive literary material has been accumulated on this problem, concerning the causes of its occurrence, analysis of the patterns of development, and the possibilities of managing risks, including the environmental ones. It has been established that the list of reasons for the formation of risks in cities lacks one of the most important factors that we have discovered – the structure of urban landscapes, which are quite large objects of urban development. To identify the role of these objects in the formation of environmental risks, the cities of Orsha and Pinsk were selected. These cities were laid down almost simultaneously at the beginning of the 11th century, but they have a different history of development. Maps of urban landscapes of cities were compiled, geochemical studies of their soil cover were carried out, geochemical and thermal anomalies of the surface were revealed, the volumes of ecosystem services (carbon absorption) by green spaces were calculated. It was found that urban landscapes perform various functions in the system of environmental risks: some of them contribute to the development of hazardous processes, others – to mitigate them. So, soil pollution with heavy metals (with an excess of the content of Pb, Cr and Cu over the MPC by 1.2–5.6 times in Pinsk), the strongest heating of the surface (8–16 °C higher than the air temperature in Pinsk and Orsha) and low carbon deposition (100–500 t per year) are typical for urban landscapes of the historical center, urban landscapes with a predominance of industrial buildings, urban landscapes for complex residential multi-storey, public and industrial buildings. Urban landscapes, in the structure of which there are elements of landscape and recreational areas of public use (parks, forest parks, squares), as well as agricultural lands and water bodies, are characterised by a low content of heavy metals in soils (below the MPC in Pinsk, below the background in Orsha), low surface temperature (2–3 °C higher than the air temperature), high volume of carbon deposition (2.6–2.8 thsd t per year). An assessment of the probability of risks associated with the described processes was carried out, which helped to find out that they correspond to the categories of «acceptable» and «neglected», options for risk management were proposed.

Unusual Surface Latent Heat Flux Variations and Their Critical Dynamics Revealed before Strong Earthquakes

We focus on the possible thermal channel of the well-known Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) mechanism to identify the behavior of thermal anomalies during and prior to strong seismic events. For this, we investigate the variation of Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) as resulting from satellite observables. We demonstrate a spatio-temporal variation in the SLHF before and after a set of strong seismic events occurred in Kathmandu, Nepal, and Kumamoto, Japan, having magnitudes of 7.8, 7.3, and 7.0, respectively. Before the studied earthquake cases, significant enhancements in the SLHF were identified near the epicenters. Additionally, in order to check whether critical dynamics, as the signature of a complex phenomenon such as earthquake preparation, are reflected in the SLHF data, we performed a criticality analysis using the natural time analysis method. The approach to criticality was detected within one week before each mainshock.

SEISMISITY of THE VOLCANIC AREAS of KAMCHATKA in 2015

The results of near real-time monitoring of the active Kamchatka volcanoes are described. Continuous monitoring was carried out using three remote methods: 1) seismic monitoring according to automatic telemetric seismic stations; 2) visual and video observation; 3) satellite observation of the thermal anomalies and the ash clouds. Annual results of seismic activity of the Northern (Shiveluch, Kluchevskoy, Bezymianny, Krestovsky, and Ushkovsky), the Avacha (Avachinsky, and Koryaksky), the Mutnovsky-Gorely volcano groups and the Kizimen volcano are presented. 5464 earthquakes with КS=1.8–8.1 were located for the Northern volcano group, 302 earthquakes with КS=1.7–5.7 – for the Avacha volcano group, 295 earthquakes with КS=2.1–6.8 for the Mutnovsky-Gorely volcano group, 462 earthquakes with КS=2.2–8.3 for Kizimen volcano, and 165 earthquakes with КS=2.5–8.4 for Zhupanovsky volcano in 2015. Maps of epicenters, quantities of seismic energy and earthquake distribution by energy classes are given. All periods of activity were fixed and investigated by remote methods in 2015: intensive volcanic activity of the Sheveluch volcano associated with a new cone; the summit explosive-effusive eruption of the Kluchevskoy volcano in January–April; and a continuation of seismic and volcanic activity of the Zhupanovsky volcano after 56-year quite period.

High-Temperature Thermal Diffusivity Measurements Using a Modified Ångström's Method with Transient Infrared Thermography

This work reports a method to measure thermal diffusivity of thin disk samples at high temperatures (900 -1150K) using a modified Angstrom's method. Conventionally, samples are heated indirectly from the surroundings to reach high temperatures for such measurements, and this process is time-consuming, typically requiring hours to reach stable temperatures. In this work samples are heated directly in a custom instrument by a concentrated light source and are able to reach high steady-periodic temperatures in 10 mins, thus enabling rapid thermal diffusivity characterization. Further, existing Angstrom's methods for high temperatures use thermocouples for temperature detection that are commonly attached to samples via drilling and welding, which are destructive to samples and introduce thermal anomalies. In this work we use an infrared camera calibrated to 2000 C for non-contact, non-destructive and data-rich temperature measurements. We present an image analysis approach to process the IR data that significantly reduces random noise in temperature measurements. We extract amplitude and phase from processed temperature profiles and demonstrate that these metrics are insensitive to uncertainty in emissivity. Previous studies commonly use regression approaches for parameter estimation that are ill-posed (i.e., non-unique solutions) and lack rigorous characterization of parameter uncertainties. Here, we employ a surrogate-accelerated Bayesian framework and a 'No-U-Turn' sampler for uncertainty quantification. The reported results are validated using graphite and copper disks and exhibit excellent agreement within 5% as compared to reference values obtained by other methods.

Nonlinear approximation of wildfire front temperature on MODIS data for sub-pixel analysis of burning

An improved approach to evaluate thermal anomalies characteristics using the pixel-based analysis of the MODIS imagery was proposed. The approach allows us to improve the accuracy in estimating characteristics of active combustion zones comparing to the standard Dozier method. We used the imagery of active wildfires in Siberian forests from the MODIS radiometer acquired in the spectral ranges of 3.930–3.990 and 10.780–11.280 mm (bands 21 and 31, respectively). Nonlinear exponential function was used to describe the approximation of the temperature of combustion zones. Available data of field and numerical experiments were used for validating of the approximation accuracy. Nonlinear approximation of wildfire front temperature allows to determine the portion of the active pixel of the MODIS image with the given temperature excess comparing to the temperature of background cover. This improves the accuracy in extracting of active burning zones as well as in classifying the heat release rate at the sub-pixel level of analysis.

Satellite monitoring of the state and dynamics of disturbed natural and technogenic landscapes in Siberia

A method for monitoring recovery process in post-fire and post-technogenic landscapes was proposed based on satellite data in wide spectral range including the infrared bands data. The spectral albedo in short-wavelength bands (MODIS band #1 and #2) was underestimated by 20–48% relative to the background in the first year after the wildfire and remained underestimated by 3–12% after 20 years of vegetation restoration. For the variant of post-technogenic plot with reclamation, the albedo value was corresponded to the dynamics in post-fire plots, while for post-technogenic dumps without reclamation the level of the albedo underestimation remained 45–60% throughout the observation period (> 60 years). A decrease in the spectral albedo of the surface in post-fire areas, due to destruction of on-ground vegetation, provokes excessive heating of surface and upper soil layer. Surface thermal anomalies were evaluated under conditions of changes in the heat-insulating properties of vegetation and ground cover. Temperature anomalies in post-fire plots (overestimation up to 30%) are typical for permafrost conditions of Siberia. Similar process was recorded for both natural (post-fire) and post-technogenic landscapes. Within 20 years of the fire, thermal insulation properties of the vegetation cover restore. Thus, the relative temperature anomaly has reached the background value of 3 ± 1%. In post-technogenic plots conditions are more “contrast” compared to the background, and restoration of the thermal regime takes significantly longer period (> 60 years). Forming “neo-technogenic ecosystems” are characterized with specific thermal regimes of soils compared to the background ones both for reclaimed and for non-reclaimed post-technogenic plots. In averaged, surface temperature has overestimated at least by 10–15% in post-technogenic plots.