Decadal changes of wintertime poleward heat and moisture transport associated with the amplified Arctic warming

The Arctic warming, especially during winter, has been almost twice as large as the global average since the late 1990s, which is known as the Arctic amplification. Yet linkage between the amplified Arctic warming and the midlatitude change is still under debate. This study examines the decadal changes of wintertime poleward heat and moisture transports between two 18-yr epochs (1999–2016 and 1981–1998) with five atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that the wintertime Arctic warming induces an amplification of the high latitude stationary wave component of zonal wavenumber one but a weakening of the wavenumber two. These stationary wave changes enhance poleward heat and moisture transports, which are conducive to further Arctic warming and moistening, acting as a positive feedback onto the Arctic warming. Meanwhile, the Arctic warming reduces atmospheric baroclinicity and thus weakens synoptic eddy activities in the high latitudes. The decreased transient eddy activities reduce poleward heat and moisture transports, which decrease the Arctic temperature and moisture, acting as a negative feedback onto the Arctic warming. The total poleward heat transport contributes little to the Arctic warming, since the increased poleward heat transport by stationary waves is nearly canceled by the decreased transport by transient eddies. However, the total poleward moisture transport increases over most areas of the high latitudes that is dominated by the increased transport by stationary waves, which provides a significant net positive feedback onto the Arctic warming and moistening. Such a poleward moisture transport feedback may be particularly crucial to the amplified Arctic warming during winter when the ice-albedo feedback vanishes.

Annual and Seasonal Precipitation and Their Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings in 1963–2015

Based on daily precipitation data from 115 climate stations, seasonal and annual precipitation and their extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS) in 1963–2015 are investigated. There exists a clear southeast-northwest gradient in precipitation and extreme daily precipitation but an opposite pattern for the consecutive dry days (CDDs). The wet southeast is trending dry while the dry center and northwest are trending wet in 1963–2015. Correspondingly, there is a drying tendency over the wet basins in the southeast and a wetting tendency over the dry and semi-dry basins in the center and northwest in summer, which will affect the water resources in the corresponding areas. The increase (decrease) in precipitation tends to correspond to the increase (decrease) in maximum daily precipitation but the decrease (increase) in CDDs. Extreme precipitation events with 20-year, 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year recurrence occurred frequently in the past decades especially in the 1980s. The greatest extreme precipitation events tend to occur after the late 1990s and in the southeastern TPS. The ERA5 reanalysis and climate system indices reveal that (1) decreased moisture transports to the southeast in summer due to the weakening of the summer monsoons and the East Asian westerly jet; (2) increased moisture transports to the center in winter due to the strengthening of the winter westerly jet and north Atlantic oscillation; and (3) decreased instability over the southeast thus suppressing precipitation and increased instability over the northwest thus promoting precipitation. All these are conducive to the drying trends in the southeast and the wetting trends in the center.

Mechanisms Linking Global 5-Day Waves to Tropical Convection

Reanalysis data and satellite-derived rainfall measurements are examined to determine possible mechanisms linking the “5 day” Rossby–Haurwitz wave to localized variations of tropical convection. The mechanisms in all regions rely on the modulation of zonal winds near the equator by the wave, but the nature of these mechanisms depends strongly on local topography and local climate. In the upper Amazon basin, the wave modulates the strength of prevailing easterlies and thus the upslope flow and associated convection on the eastern edge of the Andes. Similar modulation of upslope flow is involved off the Panamanian and Colombian Pacific coasts, but the deflection and confluence of low-level wind in the presence of the Andes and moisture transports across the Andes from the Amazon basin are also factors. Similar deflection and confluence of winds around and through the Maritime Continent lead to low-level divergence and convection anomalies over the eastern Indian Ocean. Anomalous moisture transports from the Congo basin to the eastern and northeastern Gulf of Guinea due to the wave affect atmospheric moisture over the Gulf of Guinea and thus convection in the region. Over oceanic convergence zones, modulations of the prevailing winds by the wave affect the overall wind magnitude, changing evaporation from the ocean surface and atmospheric moisture. Most of these mechanisms arise from the nonuniform nature of Earth’s surface and suggest that other external Rossby–Haurwitz waves may have similar interactions with convection.

Atmospheric Moisture Transport to the Arctic: Assessment of Reanalyses and Analysis of Transport Components

The atmospheric water cycle of the Arctic is evaluated via seven global reanalyses and in radiosonde observations covering the 1979–2013 period. In the regional moisture budget, evaporation and precipitation are the least consistent terms among different datasets. Despite the assimilation of radiosoundings, the reanalyses present a tendency to overestimate the moisture transport. Aside from this overestimation, the reanalyses exhibit a remarkable agreement with the radiosondes in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. The northern North Atlantic, subpolar North Pacific, and Labrador Sea stand out as the main gateways for moisture to the Arctic in all reanalyses. Because these regions correspond to the end of the storm tracks, the link between moisture transports and extratropical cyclones is further investigated by decomposing the moisture fluxes in the mean flow and transient eddy parts. In all reanalyses, the former term tends to cancel out when averaged over a latitude circle, leaving the latter to provide the bulk of the midlatitude moisture imports (89%–94% at 70°N). Although the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the world, the impact of these changes on its water cycle remains ambiguous. In most datasets, evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water increase in line with what is expected from a warming signal. At the same time, the moisture transports have decreased in all the reanalyses but not in the radiosonde observations, though none of these trends is statistically significant. The fluxes do not scale with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation because the increasing humidity is not correlated with the meridional wind, particularly near the surface.