Dead men tell no tales: the role of cultural transmission in demographic change

The paper explains long-term changes in birth, death rates, and in attitude to personal consumption by evolution of preferences by means of cultural transmission. When communities are culturally isolated, they are focused on population growth, which results in large fertility and welfare transfers to children, limited adult consumption, and lack of old-age support. With increasing cultural contact across communities, successful cultural traits induce their hosts to increase their social visibility by limiting fertility and increasing longevity via higher individual consumption. Empirical analysis confirms that social visibility, as measured by the number of language versions of Wikipedia biographical pages, is associated with fewer children and longer lifespan. The presence of notable individuals precedes reduced aggregate birth rates.

Evolutionary Models of Preference Formation

The literature on the evolution of preferences of individuals in strategic interactions is vast and diverse. We organize the discussion around the following question: Supposing that material outcomes drive evolutionary success, under what circumstances does evolution promote Homo economicus, defined as material self-interest, and when does it instead lead to other preferences? The literature suggests that Homo economicus is favored by evolution only when individuals’ preferences are their private information and the population is large and well-mixed, so that individuals with rare mutant preferences almost never get to interact with each other. If rare mutants instead interact more often (say, due to local dispersion), then evolution instead favors a certain generalization of Homo economicus including a Kantian concern. If individuals interact under complete information about preferences, then evolution destabilizes Homo economicus in virtually all games.

When and How to Diversify—A Multicategory Utility Model for Personalized Content Recommendation

Sometimes we desire change, a break from the same, or an opportunity to fulfill different aspects of our needs. Noting that consumers seek variety, several approaches have been developed to diversify items recommended by personalized recommender systems. However, current diversification strategies operate under a one-shot paradigm without considering the evolution of preferences resulting from recent consumption. Therefore, such methods often sacrifice accuracy. In the context of online media, we show that by recognizing that consumption in a session is the result of a sequence of utility-maximizing selections from various categories, one can increase recommendation accuracy by dynamically tailoring the diversity of suggested items to the diversity sought by the consumer. Our approach is based on a multicategory utility model that captures a consumer’s preference for different categories of content, how quickly the consumer satiates with one category and wishes to substitute it with another, and how the consumer trades off costly search efforts with selecting from a recommended list to discover new content. Taken together, these three elements allow us to characterize how an individual selects a diverse set of items to consume over the course of a session and how likely the individual is to click on recommended content. We estimate the model using a clickstream data set from a large media outlet and apply it to determine the most relevant content to recommend at different stages of an online session. We find that our approach generates recommendations that are on average about 10% more accurate than optimized alternatives and about 25% more accurate than those diversified using existing diversification strategies. Moreover, the proposed method recommends content with diversity that more closely matches the diversity sought by readers, exhibiting lower concentration–diversification bias than other personalized recommender systems. Using a policy simulation, we estimate that recommending content using the proposed approach would result in visitors reading 23% additional articles at the studied website and deriving 35% higher utility. This could lead to immediate gains in revenue for the publisher and longer-term improvements in customer satisfaction and retention at the site. This paper was accepted by Chris Forman, information systems.

Long-term evolution of preferences for conservation projects in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan: a comprehensive analytic framework

BackgroundThe long-term evolution of preferences for nature is crucial to conservation projects, given their targeted long-term horizons. Neglecting to account for this evolution could lead to undesirable human–nature relationships. This study compares the willingness to pay (WTP) for three coastal conservation projects in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan, at two distant time points (1998 and 2015), and tests for temporal transferability. It also compares protest responses that are often overlooked in WTP practices, regardless of their utility for conservation projects.MethodsGiven the lack of a unanimous protocol for protest response analyses and their use in estimating WTP, we propose a comprehensive analytic framework that integrates the two.ResultsWe show that, while preferences for coastal ecosystem services were overall stable and temporarily transferable, the preferences for certain aspects of conservation projects considerably changed.DiscussionThis suggests the need to reconsider the projects’ scheme, not the ecosystem services themselves, along with the clarification of beneficiaries and those responsible for past destruction. We conclude by suggesting further studies with a focus on regions experiencing significant social-ecological changes, such as developing countries, by exploiting the rich asset of existing valuations. This could contribute to the database for more temporal-sensitive ecosystem service valuations utilized for benefit transfers.