The Impact of Experience on Preference Formation and Context Effects in Multi-alternative, Multi-attribute Choice

Within the domain of preferential choice, it has long been thought that context effects, such as the attraction and compromise effects, arise due to the constructive nature of preferences and thus should not emerge when preferences are stable. We examined this hypothesis with a series of experiments where participants had the opportunity to experience selected alternatives and develop more enduring preferences. Our results suggest that context effects can still emerge when stable preferences form through experience. This suggests that multi-alternative, multi-attribute decisions are likely influenced by relative evaluations, as hypothesized by many computational models of decision-making, even when participants have the opportunity to experience options and learn their preferences. In addition, the direction of observed context effects is opposite to standard effects and appears to be quite robust. Our post-hoc explorations suggest that the context effect reversals we observe may relate to the subjective representation of options.

The Role of Eye Gaze in Subjective Decision Making

<p>Shimojo, Simion, Shimojo and Scheier (2003) provided preliminary evidence that eye movements have an active role in preference formation. In their study, subjects were presented with two faces and chose which was more attractive. By manipulating how long subjects were able to look at each face after an eye movement, Shimojo et al. (2003) showed that faces presented for a longer duration were more likely to be chosen as more attractive. However, a recent study from Nittono and Wada (2009) showed that an eye movement may not be necessary for this effect, as novel graphic patterns presented in the centre of the screen (thus requiring no eye movements) for longer durations were also more likely to be preferred. The purpose of the current study was to further investigate whether eye movements do have an active role in preference formation. The present study used the same paradigm as Shimojo et al.’s (2003) study. Subjects in Experiment 1 were presented with images of two real faces, alternatively (one for 900ms, one for 300ms) for six repetitions. There were 3 independent experimental conditions. One group were required to make eye movements to laterally presented faces and judge attractiveness (lateral attractiveness condition), a second were not required to make eye movements to centrally presented faces and judge attractiveness (central attractiveness condition). The third were required to make eye movements to laterally presented faces and judge roundness (lateral roundness condition). The findings indicated that subjects were more likely to choose the longer presented faces in the lateral attractiveness and central attractiveness conditions, but not the lateral roundness conditions. Experiment 2 was similar to Experiment 1 with the exception of the type of stimuli, which consisted of computer generated faces (CGFs). Subjects were more likely to choose the longer presented CGF in the lateral attractiveness, central attractiveness and lateral roundness conditions. The findings of the present study were not in line with Shimojo et al.’s (2003) previous findings, who found that faces presented for a longer duration were only preferred in the lateral attractiveness condition of their study. It is possible that the faces that are presented for the longer duration in the current paradigm are preferred due to the increase in exposure duration irrespective of an eye movement (as per the findings from Nittono and Wada, 2009). As it is unclear as to whether eye movements play an active role in preference formation, the findings of the present study have not been able to contribute to computational models of decision making.</p>

The Role of Eye Gaze in Subjective Decision Making

<p>Shimojo, Simion, Shimojo and Scheier (2003) provided preliminary evidence that eye movements have an active role in preference formation. In their study, subjects were presented with two faces and chose which was more attractive. By manipulating how long subjects were able to look at each face after an eye movement, Shimojo et al. (2003) showed that faces presented for a longer duration were more likely to be chosen as more attractive. However, a recent study from Nittono and Wada (2009) showed that an eye movement may not be necessary for this effect, as novel graphic patterns presented in the centre of the screen (thus requiring no eye movements) for longer durations were also more likely to be preferred. The purpose of the current study was to further investigate whether eye movements do have an active role in preference formation. The present study used the same paradigm as Shimojo et al.’s (2003) study. Subjects in Experiment 1 were presented with images of two real faces, alternatively (one for 900ms, one for 300ms) for six repetitions. There were 3 independent experimental conditions. One group were required to make eye movements to laterally presented faces and judge attractiveness (lateral attractiveness condition), a second were not required to make eye movements to centrally presented faces and judge attractiveness (central attractiveness condition). The third were required to make eye movements to laterally presented faces and judge roundness (lateral roundness condition). The findings indicated that subjects were more likely to choose the longer presented faces in the lateral attractiveness and central attractiveness conditions, but not the lateral roundness conditions. Experiment 2 was similar to Experiment 1 with the exception of the type of stimuli, which consisted of computer generated faces (CGFs). Subjects were more likely to choose the longer presented CGF in the lateral attractiveness, central attractiveness and lateral roundness conditions. The findings of the present study were not in line with Shimojo et al.’s (2003) previous findings, who found that faces presented for a longer duration were only preferred in the lateral attractiveness condition of their study. It is possible that the faces that are presented for the longer duration in the current paradigm are preferred due to the increase in exposure duration irrespective of an eye movement (as per the findings from Nittono and Wada, 2009). As it is unclear as to whether eye movements play an active role in preference formation, the findings of the present study have not been able to contribute to computational models of decision making.</p>

A Tale of Odds and Ratios: Political Preference Formation in Postindustrial Democracies

This report surveys four approaches that are pivotal to the study of preference formation: (a) the range, validity, and theoretical foundations of explanations of political preferences at the individual and mass levels, (b) the exploration of key objects of preference formation attached to the democratic political process (i.e., voting in competitive elections), (c) the top-down vs. bottom-up character of preference formation as addressed in leader–follower studies, and (d) gene–environment interaction and the explanatory weight of genetic predisposition against the cumulative weight of social experiences.In recent years, our understanding of sites and processes of (individual) political-preference formation has substantially improved. First, this applies to a greater variety of objects that provide fresh insight into the functioning and stability of contemporary democracy. Second, we observe the reaffirmation of pivotal theories and key concepts in adapted form against widespread challenge. This applies to the role played by social stratification, group awareness, and individual-level economic considerations. Most of these findings converge in recognising economics-based explanations. Third, research into gene–environment interplay rapidly increases the number of testable hypotheses and promises to benefit a wide range of approaches already taken and advanced in the study of political-preference formation.

All the World’s a Stage: US Presidential Narcissism and International Conflict

How do leaders matter? What do leaders want? Grandiose narcissism provides a pathway to understanding how personality can impact a leader’s preference formation and foreign policy behavior. More narcissistic leaders will focus their efforts on maintaining their inflated self-image by selecting how they will fight on the world stage and who they will fight against. While most leaders will divert attention to easier won battles, more narcissistic leaders will prefer to fight against high-status states by themselves. This article introduces a new measure of US’ presidential narcissism, and finds support for the argument that more narcissistic US presidents prefer unilaterally initiating Great Power disputes using data from 1897–2008. A brief review of Theodore Roosevelt’s handling of the Venezuela Crisis of 1902–1903 is used as a plausibility probe of the theory’s causal mechanisms.

European Financial Governance: FTT Reform, Controversies and Governments’ Responsiveness

The Eurozone crisis exposed the incompleteness of the Economic and Monetary Union’s governance framework thereby prompting the promotion of a multitude of reform packages and proposals. This simultaneously induced conflict among EU governments on both design and content of such reforms. In case of the financial transaction tax (FTT) proposal, which failed to garner consensus among member governments, it illustrates Ireland’s disapproval clashing with favorable German and French stances. While these governments aligned on the necessity to reform, the process of harmonizing EU financial governance proved rather difficult. In analyzing governments’ variation of reform support or opposition, the societal approach to governmental preference formation is employed. This is considerably conducive in directing academic attention to the role of two explanatory variables, domestic material interests and value-based ideas, in shaping governments’ reform positions. This article encompasses a comprehensive comparative account of domestic preference formation and responsiveness of three EU governments (France, Germany and Ireland), in the case study of the FTT, and demonstrates that the two societal dynamics are prone to have played a role in shaping financial reform controversies. By building on and contributing to Eurozone crisis literature, this approach seems appropriate in analyzing financial governance reform due to the crisis’ domestic impact resulting in increased public salience, issue politicization and an advanced role of elected politicians.

What to Expect When the Unexpected Becomes Expected: Harmonic Surprise and Preference Over Time in Popular Music

Previous work demonstrates that music with more surprising chords tends to be perceived as more enjoyable than music with more conventional harmonic structures. In that work, harmonic surprise was computed based upon a static distribution of chords. This would assume that harmonic surprise is constant over time, and the effect of harmonic surprise on music preference is similarly static. In this study we assess that assumption and establish that the relationship between harmonic surprise (as measured according to a specific time period) and music preference is not constant as time goes on. Analyses of harmonic surprise and preference from 1958 to 1991 showed increased harmonic surprise over time, and that this increase was significantly more pronounced in preferred songs. Separate analyses showed similar increases over the years from 2000 to 2019. As such, these findings provide evidence that the human perception of tonality is influenced by exposure. Baseline harmonic expectations that were developed through listening to the music of “yesterday” are violated in the music of “today,” leading to preference. Then, once the music of “today” provides the baseline expectations for the music of “tomorrow,” more pronounced violations—and with them, higher harmonic surprise values—become associated with preference formation. We call this phenomenon the “Inflationary-Surprise Hypothesis.” Support for this hypothesis could impact the understanding of how the perception of tonality, and other statistical regularities, are developed in the human brain.

A Theory of Chosen Preferences

We propose and develop a dynamic theory of endogenous preference formation in which people adopt worldviews that shape their judgments about their experiences. The framework highlights the role of mindset flexibility, a trait that determines the relative weights the decision-maker places on her current and anticipated worldviews when evaluating future outcomes. The theory generates rich behavioral dynamics, thereby illuminating a wide range of applications and providing potential explanations for a variety of observed phenomena. (JEL D11, D81, D91, Z13)