Facing the Forecaster’s Dilemma: Reflexivity in Ocean System Forecasting

Unlike atmospheric weather forecasting, ocean forecasting is often reflexive; for many applications, the forecast and its dissemination can change the outcome, and is in this way, a part of the system. Reflexivity has implications for several ocean forecasting applications, such as fisheries management, endangered species management, toxic and invasive species management, and community science. The field of ocean system forecasting is experiencing rapid growth, and there is an opportunity to add the reflexivity dynamic to the conventional approach taken from weather forecasting. Social science has grappled with reflexivity for decades and can offer a valuable perspective. Ocean forecasting is often iterative, thus it can also offer opportunities to advance the general understanding of reflexive prediction. In this paper, we present a basic theoretical skeleton for considering iterative reflexivity in an ocean forecasting context. It is possible to explore the reflexive dynamics because the prediction is iterative. The central problem amounts to a tension between providing a reliably accurate forecast and affecting a desired outcome via the forecast. These two objectives are not always compatible. We map a review of the literature onto relevant ecological scales that contextualize the role of reflexivity across a range of applications, from biogeochemical (e.g., hypoxia and harmful algal blooms) to endangered species management. Formulating reflexivity mathematically provides one explicit mechanism for integrating natural and social sciences. In the context of the Anthropocene ocean, reflexivity helps us understand whether forecasts are meant to mitigate and control environmental changes, or to adapt and respond within a changing system. By thinking about reflexivity as part of the foundation of ocean system forecasting, we hope to avoid some of the unintended consequences that can derail forecasting programs.

Updating the Bibliography of Interbreeding among Canis in North America

This bibliography provides a collection of references that documents the evolution of studies evidencing interbreeding among Canis species in North America. Over the past several decades, advances in biology and genomic technology greatly improved our ability to detect and characterize species interbreeding, which has significance for understanding species in a changing landscape as well as for endangered species management. This bibliography includes a discussion within each category of interbreeding, the timeline of developing evidence, and includes a review of past research conducted on experimental crosses. Research conducted in the early 20th century is rich with detailed records and photographs of hybrid offspring development and behavior. With the progression of molecular methods, studies can estimate historical demographic parameters and detect chromosomal patterns of ancestry. As these methods continue to increase in accessibility, the field will gain a deeper and richer understanding of the evolutionary history of North American Canis.

Early and efficient detection of an endangered flying squirrel by arboreal camera trapping

Endangered species management is typically informed by an ecological knowledge of a species. Currently, little is known about the distribution and ecology of the Japanese flying squirrel (Pteromys momonga). To provide an effective rapid survey technique for flying squirrels, we used camera trap surveys and determined what methodology (i.e. camera placement, survey length) was most efficient. We placed 154 cameras in trees for 30 days. We detected flying squirrels at 12% of the camera points. The average suitable distance between camera and targeted tree (DCT) was 130 cm (SE: 15.4, range: 90–220). Moreover, flying squirrels were frequently detected on the trunks of taller trees. We found camera trap surveys were an efficient technique for detecting flying squirrels. Approximately 11% of camera points detected flying squirrels within one survey night. Initial detection of flying squirrels at a site occurred within 10 days at 58% of the points. To efficiently detect flying squirrels, we suggest that it is better to aim the camera towards taller trees at a suitable DCT and to conduct surveys for a minimum of 10 days at each site.