Dual Bounds for Periodical Stochastic Programs

A construction of the dual of a periodical formulation of infinite-horizon linear stochastic programs with a discount factor is discussed. The dual problem is used for computing a deterministic upper bound for the optimal value of the considered multistage stochastic program. Numerical experiments demonstrate behavior of that upper bound, especially when the discount factor is close to one.

A pessimistic bilevel stochastic problem for elastic shape optimization

We consider pessimistic bilevel stochastic programs in which the follower maximizes over a fixed compact convex set a strictly convex quadratic function, whose Hessian depends on the leader’s decision. This results in a random upper level outcome which is evaluated by a convex risk measure. Under assumptions including real analyticity of the lower-level goal function, we prove the existence of optimal solutions. We discuss an alternate model, where the leader hedges against optimal lower-level solutions, and show that solvability can be guaranteed under weaker conditions in both, a deterministic and a stochastic setting. The approach is applied to a mechanical shape optimization problem in which the leader decides on an optimal material distribution to minimize a tracking-type cost functional, whereas the follower chooses forces from an admissible set to maximize a compliance objective. The material distribution is considered to be stochastically perturbed in the actual construction phase. Computational results illustrate the bilevel optimization concept and demonstrate the interplay of follower and leader in shape design and testing.

Distributionally robust stochastic programs with side information based on trimmings

We consider stochastic programs conditional on some covariate information, where the only knowledge of the possible relationship between the uncertain parameters and the covariates is reduced to a finite data sample of their joint distribution. By exploiting the close link between the notion of trimmings of a probability measure and the partial mass transportation problem, we construct a data-driven Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework to hedge the decision against the intrinsic error in the process of inferring conditional information from limited joint data. We show that our approach is computationally as tractable as the standard (without side information) Wasserstein-metric-based DRO and enjoys performance guarantees. Furthermore, our DRO framework can be conveniently used to address data-driven decision-making problems under contaminated samples. Finally, the theoretical results are illustrated using a single-item newsvendor problem and a portfolio allocation problem with side information.

Distributionally Robust Optimization with Confidence Bands for Probability Density Functions

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been introduced for solving stochastic programs in which the distribution of the random variables is unknown and must be estimated by samples from that distribution. A key element of DRO is the construction of the ambiguity set, which is a set of distributions that contains the true distribution with a high probability. Assuming that the true distribution has a probability density function, we propose a class of ambiguity sets based on confidence bands of the true density function. As examples, we consider the shape-restricted confidence bands and the confidence bands constructed with a kernel density estimation technique. The former allows us to incorporate the prior knowledge of the shape of the underlying density function (e.g., unimodality and monotonicity), and the latter enables us to handle multidimensional cases. Furthermore, we establish the convergence of the optimal value of DRO to that of the underlying stochastic program as the sample size increases. The DRO with our ambiguity set involves functional decision variables and infinitely many constraints. To address this challenge, we apply duality theory to reformulate the DRO to a finite-dimensional stochastic program, which is amenable to a stochastic subgradient scheme as a solution method.

The energy distance for ensemble and scenario reduction

Scenario reduction techniques are widely applied for solving sophisticated dynamic and stochastic programs, especially in energy and power systems, but are also used in probabilistic forecasting, clustering and estimating generative adversarial networks. We propose a new method for ensemble and scenario reduction based on the energy distance which is a special case of the maximum mean discrepancy. We discuss the choice of energy distance in detail, especially in comparison to the popular Wasserstein distance which is dominating the scenario reduction literature. The energy distance is a metric between probability measures that allows for powerful tests for equality of arbitrary multivariate distributions or independence. Thanks to the latter, it is a suitable candidate for ensemble and scenario reduction problems. The theoretical properties and considered examples indicate clearly that the reduced scenario sets tend to exhibit better statistical properties for the energy distance than a corresponding reduction with respect to the Wasserstein distance. We show applications to a Bernoulli random walk and two real data-based examples for electricity demand profiles and day-ahead electricity prices. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The mathematics of energy systems’.