Can Economic Factors Improve Momentum Trading Strategies? The Case of Managed Futures during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Systematic momentum trading is a prevalent risk premium strategy in different portfolios. This paper focuses on the performance of the managed futures strategy based on the momentum signal across different economic regimes, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic period. COVID-19 had a solid but short-lived impact on financial markets, and therefore gives a unique insight into momentum strategies’ performance during such critical moments of market stress. We offer a new approach to implementing momentum strategies by adding macroeconomic variables to the model. We test a managed futures strategy’s performance with a well-diversified futures portfolio across different asset classes. The research concludes that constructing a portfolio based on academically/economically sound momentum signals with its allocation timing based on broader economic factors significantly improves managed futures strategies and adds significant diversification benefits to the investors’ portfolios.

A stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios

We study a stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios. Building on the (Schwartz, 1997) stochastic convenience yield model for commodity prices, we formulate a utility maximization problem for dynamically trading a single-maturity futures or multiple futures contracts over a finite horizon. By analyzing the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation, we solve the investor’s utility maximization problem explicitly and derive the optimal dynamic trading strategies in closed form. We provide numerical examples and illustrate the optimal trading strategies using WTI crude oil futures data.

Commodity Trading Advisors and Managed Futures

Managed futures strategies provide investors with a dynamic exposure to commodities. Among other ways of investing in them, commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have become synonymous with this asset class, as they provide professional money management services using derivatives markets either in a pooled or individual setting. Most managed futures strategies display trend-following and momentum-type systematic trading features, which result in adopting a long-short portfolio approach. This chapter explains the characteristics and the growth of this commodity investing industry and provides an extensive literature review. Much of the literature finds that managed futures investing through CTAs provides excellent diversification benefits and performs well, especially in crisis times. Conversely, the non-uniformity of the databases and indices used in these studies lead to several biases. Some recent studies that directly address these shortcomings question the performance persistence of CTAs after fees.

Global Derivatives Hedge Fund Strategies

Hedge funds represent discretionary pools of capital that have very flexible investment strategies. Some funds allocate capital to derivative-based strategies on a global basis, loosely referred to as global macro funds. These investments are typically high-level, directional views on exchange rates, volatility, interest rates and other macro-related factors. In short, this “go anywhere” strategy often uses futures, forwards, and options on equities as well as interest rates and currencies. The investment manager employs top-down investments by placing high-level bets at the country level as well as taking positions in stock, currency, and derivatives on particular countries based on economic views. Many global macro funds increasingly use systematic managed futures, although fewer funds follow a discretionary managed futures strategy.