Does Momentum Trading Generate Extra Downside Risk?

Momentum strategies tend to provide low returns during market crashes, and they crash themselves when the market rebounds after significant crashes. This is reflected by positive downside market betas and negative upside market betas of zero-cost momentum portfolios. Such asymmetry in upside and downside risks is unfavorable for investors and requires a risk premium. It arises mechanically because of momentum portfolio rebalancing based on trailing asset performance. The asymmetry in upside and downside risks is a robust unifying feature of momentum portfolios in various geographical and asset markets. The momentum premium can be rationalized within a standard asset-pricing framework, where upside and downside risks are priced differently.

Can Economic Factors Improve Momentum Trading Strategies? The Case of Managed Futures during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Systematic momentum trading is a prevalent risk premium strategy in different portfolios. This paper focuses on the performance of the managed futures strategy based on the momentum signal across different economic regimes, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic period. COVID-19 had a solid but short-lived impact on financial markets, and therefore gives a unique insight into momentum strategies’ performance during such critical moments of market stress. We offer a new approach to implementing momentum strategies by adding macroeconomic variables to the model. We test a managed futures strategy’s performance with a well-diversified futures portfolio across different asset classes. The research concludes that constructing a portfolio based on academically/economically sound momentum signals with its allocation timing based on broader economic factors significantly improves managed futures strategies and adds significant diversification benefits to the investors’ portfolios.

COVID-19 pandemic and connectedness across financial markets

Purpose This study aims to estimate the time–frequency connectedness among global financial markets. It draws a comparison between the full sample and the sample during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the connectedness framework of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Barunik and Krehlik (2018), both of which consider time and frequency connectedness and show that spillover is specific to not only the time domain but also the frequency (short- and long-run) domain. The analysis also includes pairwise connectedness by making use of network analysis. Daily data on the MSCI World Index, Barclays Bloomberg Global Treasury Index, Oil future, Gold future, Dow Jones World Islamic Index and Bitcoin have been used over the period from May 01, 2013 to July 31, 2020. Findings This study finds that cryptocurrency, bond and gold are hedges against both conventional stocks and Islamic stocks on average; however, these are not “safe havens” during an economic crisis, i.e. COVID-19. External shocks, such as COVID-19, strengthen the return connectedness among all six financial markets. Research limitations/implications For investors, the study provides important insights that during external shocks such as COVID-19, there is a spillover effect, and investors are unable to hedge risk between conventional stocks and Islamic stocks. These so-called safe haven investment alternatives suffer from the similar negative impact of systemic financial risk. However, during an external shock such as COVID-19, cryptocurrencies, bonds and gold can be used to hedge risk against conventional stocks, Islamic stocks and oil. Moreover, the findings imply that by engaging in momentum trading, active investors can gain short-run benefits before the market processes any new information. Originality/value The study contributes to the emergent literature investigating the connectedness among financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. It provides evidence that the return connectedness among six global financial markets, namely, conventional stocks, Islamic stocks, bond, oil, gold and cryptocurrency, is extremely strong. From a methodological standpoint, this study finds that COVID-19 pandemic shock has a significant short-run impact on the connectedness among financial markets.

The effect of induced mood on traders’ preferences in asset markets – experimental evidence

PurposeIn this paper, we study the effect of induced positive and negative moods on traders' willingness to trade (pay and accept) in experimental asset markets.Design/methodology/approachWe conduct experimental asset markets where subjects undergo a mood induction procedure prior to trade. After the subjects are induced with either negative or positive affect, they can trade an experimental asset with a known stream of dividends for a known number of periods.FindingsWe first show that both positive and negative affects are associated with larger positive deviations from fundamental values. We also show that when subjects are induced with positive mood, they bid higher prices but for fewer units of the stock. On the supply side, positive affect is associated with higher prices and quantities, and consequently in higher willingness to offer. Finally, we use our experimental data to test existing theories on mood effect. We find that negative affect is related to momentum trading, while positive affect is associated with information processing.Originality/valueTo our knowledge, this is the first work that studies the effect of mood on traders' behavior, rather than market outcomes.

Empirical evidence on the profitability of momentum trading strategies using ETFs

PurposeWe extend empirical evidence on the profitability of momentum trading to the realm of plain-equity ETFs.Design/methodology/approachWe employ several ranking measures used in prior research, and for each we apply a traditional ranking based on total return, and a variation based only on the capital gain/loss portion of return.FindingsWhile we find that past momentum is not a strong predictor of future performance in our overall sample period, 2007 to June 2018, we find that the percent off 52-week high price results in positive performance in the recovery years following the financial crisis of 2008–2009.Research limitations/implicationsOur study is limited by the availability of ETF experience and data, and our test period covers just 2007 through June 2018. This period includes the financial crisis of 2008–2009, which previous research finding is associated with the momentum strategy's loss of profitability. When we exclude that period, we find evidence of a profitable momentum strategy based on the measure of percent off 52-week high price, enabling us to reject the null hypothesis that the momentum trading strategy is no longer profitable.Practical implicationsIt is profitable based on both return measures used in the rankings. Our finding of a profitable momentum trading strategy suggests that the null hypothesis that the momentum strategy is no longer profitable can be rejected.Originality/valueWhile perhaps not so strong as to reject the efficient markets hypothesis fully, our empirical findings are more consistent with a behavioral explanation and a market inefficiency. In view of the relative ease and low transactional costs of trading in ETFs, the markets have yet another opportunity to recognize an apparent mispricing and employ arbitrage based on it. To the extent that the relative ease of trading in ETFs makes momentum strategies easier to employ, the momentum anomaly might still be expected to disappear in an efficient market.

Time series momentum trading in green stocks

Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore the inherent instability, if any, in the context of investment in stocks of environment friendly companies (or the “green” stocks) across the globe using the time series momentum (TSM) trading strategies. Design/methodology/approach Using the monthly data for the Green Indexes from the USA, the Europe and the Asia-Pacific region over 2003-2019, the authors construct TSM trading strategies to examine the efficacy of regional Green Indexes as well as two diversified global green portfolios to offer abnormal return to attract investors, particularly speculators. The authors’ explore further whether such strategies could operate as hedging instrument. A comparison of results across different regions helps the authors establish a universal nature, if any, of investment in green stocks. Findings The study finds that regional Green Indexes are unable to outperform the market. The global green portfolios perform significantly better. The inefficacy of the relevant time series momentum trading strategies rules out the possibility of speculations. However, the number of profitable momentum strategies is significantly higher for the diversified portfolios in longer run. The portfolios perform significantly better in outperforming the buy-only strategies as well. The stable market, escalated demand and the resulting increment in valuation of green stocks make adoption of greener technologies a choice rather than a forced obligation. This offers a solution to the problem of Tragedy of Common. Originality/value Sustained increase in investment in green stocks is crucial from an environment perspective, as better valuation of their stocks would indubitably convince firms to reduce their carbon footprints. A continued enthusiasm however would require investors’ faith in it. Presence of momentum profit would invite speculators leading to irrational exuberance, dwindling confidence and consequent fragility. Literature on green investment is relatively sparse with the threat of its vulnerability issues left largely unnoticed. The authors’ study fills these gaps.