The imf Conditionality in the Age of Post-National Governance

The paper focuses on conditionality in imf programs for member states of monetary unions in light of the decision of the imf’s Executive Board on Program Design in Currency Unions (2018). Despite the growing importance of supranational institutions, the imf lacked until 2018 any explicit framework for imposing conditions on currency union bodies in cases where a member state of such a union requested an imf program. The aim of this paper is to assess the newly adopted imf approach to conditionality for currency union institutions based on the concept of “policy assurances” and to answer the question of whether the imf had authority to impose conditions on supranational institutions prior to the 2018 Board decision and whether the imf should in principle have such authority.

Nominal exchange rates EUR/GRD and EUR/ITL in the context of leaving the euro zone by Greece and Italy

Aim/purpose – The aim of this paper is to present two cases of crises in Greece and Italy and to evaluate the shadow exchange rates of hypothetical new currencies (re)introduced after Grexit and Italexit. Design/methodology/approach – Both shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of changes in foreign exchange reserves and interest rate differentials in the absence of an independent nomi- nal exchange rate. The research sample covers Greece in 1989-2020 and Italy in 1989- 2020. Findings – The research presented the estimation of shadow exchange rates EUR/GRD and EUR/ITL during the euro zone membership period. Leaving the euro area one can expect the following market rates: EUR/GRD 600 and EUR/ITL 1850. That would mean 75% depreciation and 5% appreciation to the current euro parities EUR/GRD 340.75, and EUR/ITL 1936.27, respectively. Research implications/limitations – After potential Grexit Greek authorities could expect significant nominal depreciation of a new currency (or should introduce it with a substantial discount). In the case of Italexit, the new currency would preserve its nomi- nal value. The limitations of the research methodology are: a long period of the analysis covers structural changes of financial markets, crisis events, political factors (e.g., QE programs). Originality/value/contribution – The originality of this approach lies in the combina- tion of two important economic concepts – the idea of shadow exchange rate and the index of speculative pressure. Combined together they help to prepare the methodology of shadow exchange rates evaluation for currencies that are currently in the common currency system (e.g., currency union). These results can help in economic and political discussions on effects of leaving the currency union. Keywords: nominal exchange rates, euro area, financial crises. JEL Classification: F21, F31, F37, F38, G15

Exchange rate regulation in economic unions: The case of Euroasian Economic Union

This article explores currency regulation in the EAEU countries for the harmonization of currency policies in the context of economic integration. The object of the study is currency regulation in countries of Eurasian integration. The main hypothesis is that EAEU member countries are not ready for currency integration, due to the presence of many macroeconomic distortions in their economies. The authors assess the possibility of creating a monetary union by analyzing and evaluating key criteria for currency integration as known in the scholarly literature. For this goal, the authors conducted a literature review of the key prerequisites for currency integration, including the experience in the countries of the Eurozone. Then the authors analyze currency regulation in EAEU countries for meeting key criteria for currency integration. At this stage, the authors evaluate key factors of currency integration by EAEU member countries. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was classic and modern approaches in the field of monetary and currency regulation—in particular, the research of modern analysts of the International Monetary Fund, the largest Central Banks of the world, and well-known experts of the field. The research results showed the inexpediency of creating a currency union within the Euroasian economic space at this stage.

The Advanced Proposed Architecture of Eco-Currency: Technical Analysis of West Africa Single Currency Program

The different target of the time period has been established over the past two decades in the institutionalization of a single currency union in West Africa. Depending on varied reasons the proposed programs have always failed before the set timelines in respect of ECOWAS monetary unification and single currency adoption. As a result, the paper explored and developed its argument based on the existing studies of structured economic shocks, significant to the failure of the single currency union, and its major causal factors. And with observed structured analysis propose catalytic activator method as a theoretical guide to attain the single currency union within three (3) years ahead, if the necessary requirement as the commitment level of members’ State is applied towards the single currency unification program. It then elaborates in the spirit of precision the process required to sustain the eco-currency program in other to elevate members State in an out-date of its domestic currencies struggling as a subservient economic bloc to the adoption of a new anticipated domineering currency in its own merit to shoulder with the global dominating hard currencies.