scholarly journals Wildfire-Atmosphere Interaction Index for Extreme Fire behaviour

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomas Artés ◽  
Marc Castellnou ◽  
Tracy Houston Durrant ◽  
Jesús San-Miguel
Keyword(s):  
Global Scale ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Interaction Index ◽  
Fire Fighters ◽  
Atmosphere Interaction ◽  
Extreme Fire ◽  
Fire Danger Indices ◽  
Behaviour Index

Abstract. During the last 20 years extreme wildfires have challenged firefighting capabilities. Often, the prediction of the extreme behaviour is essential for the safety of citizens and fire fighters. Currently, there are several fire danger indices routinely used by firefighting services, but they are not suited to forecast convective extreme wildfire behaviour at global scale. This article proposes a new fire danger index, extreme fire behaviour index (EFBI), based on the analysis of the vertical profiles of the atmosphere above wildfires as an alternative to the use of traditional fire danger indices. The EFBI evaluates the ease of interaction between wildfires and the atmosphere that could lead to convective, erratic and extreme wildfires. Results of this research in the analysis of some of the critical fires in the last years show that the EFBI can potentially be used to provide valuable information to identify convective fires and to enhance fire danger rating schemes worldwide.

Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 574 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Matt Jolly ◽  
Patrick H. Freeborn
Keyword(s):  
Great Basin ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

Wildland firefighters must assess potential fire behaviour in order to develop appropriate strategies and tactics that will safely meet objectives. Fire danger indices integrate surface weather conditions to quantify potential variations in fire spread rates and intensities and therefore should closely relate to observed fire behaviour. These indices could better inform fire management decisions if they were linked directly to observed fire behaviour. Here, we present a simple framework for relating fire danger indices to observed categorical wildland fire behaviour. Ordinal logistic regressions are used to model the probabilities of five distinct fire behaviour categories that are then combined with a safety-based weight function to calculate a Fire Behaviour Risk rating that can plotted over time and spatially mapped. We demonstrate its development and use across three adjacent US National Forests. Finally, we compare predicted fire behaviour risk ratings with observed variations in satellite-measured fire radiative power and we link these models with spatial fire danger maps to demonstrate the utility of this approach for landscape-scale fire behaviour risk assessment. This approach transforms fire weather conditions into simple and actionable fire behaviour risk metrics that wildland firefighters can use to support decisions that meet required objectives and keep people safe.

scholarly journals Assessing the probability of crown fire initiation based on fire danger indices

2003 ◽  
Vol 79 (5) ◽  
pp. 976-983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G Cruz ◽  
Martin E Alexander ◽  
Ronald H Wakimoto
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Research Database ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

The initiation of crown fires in conifer stands was modelled through logistic regression analysis by considering as independent variables a basic physical descriptor of the fuel complex structure and selected components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. The study was based on a fire behaviour research database consisting of 63 experimental fires covering a relatively wide range of burning conditions and fuel type characteristics. Four models were built with decreasing input needs. Significant predictors of crown fire initiation were: canopy base height, wind speed measured at a height of 10 m in the open, and four components of the FWI System (i.e., Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Buildup Index). The models predicted correctly the type of fire (i.e., surface or crown) between 90% and 66% of the time. The C index, a statistical measure, varied from 0.94 to 0.71, revealing good concordance between predicted probabilities and observed events. A comparison between the logistic models and Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System models did not show any conclusive differences. The results of a limited evaluation involving two independent experimental fire data sets for distinctly different fuel complexes were encouraging. The logistic models built may have applicability in fire management decision support systems, allowing for the estimation of the probability of crown fire initiation at small and large spatial scales from commonly available fire environment and fire danger rating information. The relationships presented are considered valid for free-burning fires on level terrain in coniferous forests that have reached a pseudo steady-state and are not deemed applicable to dead conifer forests (i.e., insect-killed stands). Key words: Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, crown fire initiation, fire behaviour, fire danger indices, logistic regression

scholarly journals Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2157-2167 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Schunk ◽  
C. Wastl ◽  
M. Leuchner ◽  
C. Schuster ◽  
A. Menzel
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Temperature Inversion ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Complex Topography ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Bavarian Alps ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

Abstract. Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

scholarly journals Comparison of fire danger indices in the Mediterranean for present day conditions

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Giannakopoulos ◽  
P LeSager ◽  
M Moriondo ◽  
M Bindi ◽  
A Karali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

scholarly journals Comparison of Methods for the Assessment of Fire Danger in the Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1285-1295 ◽  
Author(s):  
František Jurečka ◽  
Martin Možný ◽  
Jan Balek ◽  
Zdeněk Žalud ◽  
Miroslav Trnka
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

The performance of fire indices based on weather variables was analyzed with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Three fire weather danger indices that are the basis of fire danger rating systems used in different parts of the world were assessed: the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), Australian Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Finnish Forest Fire Index (FFI). The performance of the three fire danger indices was investigated at different scales and compared with actual fire events. First, the fire danger indices were analyzed for different land use types during the period 1956–2015. In addition, in the analysis, the three fire danger indices were compared with wildfire events during the period 2001–2015. The fire danger indices were also analyzed for the specific locality of the Bzenec area where a large forest fire event occurred in May 2012. The study also focused on the relationship between fire danger indices and forest fires during 2018 across the area of the Jihomoravský region. Comparison of the index values with real fires showed that the index values corresponded well with the occurrence of forest fires. The analysis of the year 2018 showed that the highest index values were reached on days with the greater fire occurrence. On days with 5 or 7 reported fires per day, the fire danger indices reached values between 3 and 4.

Changes in forest fire danger for south-western China in the 21st century

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-rui Tian ◽  
Feng-jun Zhao ◽  
Li-fu Shu ◽  
Ming-yu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Western China ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Extreme Fire

This paper predicts future changes in fire danger and the fire season in the current century for south-western China under two different climate change scenarios. The fire weather index (FWI) system calculated from daily outputs of a regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 50×50km was used to assess fire danger. Temperature and precipitation demonstrated a gradually increasing trend for the future. Forest fire statistics for 1987–2011 revealed that the FWI, initial spread index and seasonal severity rating were significantly related to the number of forest fires between 100 and 1000ha in size. Over three future periods, the FWI component indices will increase greatly. The mean FWI value will increase by 0.83–1.85, 1.83–2.91 and 3.33–3.97 in the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The regions with predicted FWI increases are mainly in central and south-eastern China. The fire season (including days with high, very high and extreme fire danger ratings) will be prolonged by 9–13, 18–21 and 28–31 days over these periods. This fire season extension will mainly be due to days with an extreme fire danger rating. Considering predicted future changes in the forest fire danger rating and the fire season, it is suggested that climate change adaptation measures be implemented.

Meteorological fire danger indices and remote sensing

1999 ◽  
pp. 39-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Camia ◽  
Giovanni Bovio ◽  
Inmaculada Aguado ◽  
Nicolas Stach
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

Atmospheric interactions with wildland fire behaviour - I. Basic surface interactions, vertical profiles and synoptic structures

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 779 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian E. Potter
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Surface Interactions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Plume Dynamics ◽  
Atmospheric Profiles ◽  
Atmospheric Interactions

This paper is the first of two reviewing scientific literature from 100 years of research addressing interactions between the atmosphere and fire behaviour. These papers consider research on the interactions between the fuels burning at any instant and the atmosphere, and the interactions between the atmosphere and those fuels that will eventually burn in a given fire. This first paper reviews the progression from the surface atmospheric properties of temperature, humidity and wind to horizontal and vertical synoptic structures and ends with vertical atmospheric profiles. (The companion paper addresses plume dynamics and vortices.) The review reveals several unanswered questions, as well as findings from previous studies that appear forgotten in current research and concludes with suggestions for areas of future research.

scholarly journals Retrieval of desert dust aerosol vertical profiles from IASI measurements in the TIR atmospheric window

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 2577-2591 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Vandenbussche ◽  
S. Kochenova ◽  
A. C. Vandaele ◽  
N. Kumps ◽  
M. De Mazière
Keyword(s):  
Optical Depth ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Dust Aerosol ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
Desert Dust ◽  
Dust Aerosols ◽  
Infrared Measurements

Abstract. Desert dust aerosols are the most prominent tropospheric aerosols, playing an important role in the earth's climate. However, their radiative forcing is currently not known with sufficient precision to even determine its sign. The sources of uncertainty are multiple, one of them being a poor characterisation of the dust aerosol's vertical profile on a global scale. In this work, we tackle this scientific issue by designing a method for retrieving dust aerosol vertical profiles from Thermal Infrared measurements by Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instruments onboard the Metop satellite series. IASI offers almost global coverage twice a day, and long (past and future) time series of radiances, therefore being extremely well suited for climate studies. Our retrieval follows Rodger's formalism and is based on a two-step approach, treating separately the issues of low altitude sensitivity and difficult a priori definition. We compare our results for a selected test case above the Atlantic Ocean and North Africa in June 2009, with optical depth data from MODIS, aerosol absorbing index from GOME-2 and OMI, and vertical profiles of extinction coefficients from CALIOP. We also use literature information on desert dust sources to interpret our results above land. Our retrievals provide perfectly reasonable results in terms of optical depth. The retrieved vertical profiles (with on average 1.5 degrees of freedom) show most of the time sensitivity down to the lowest layer, and agree well with CALIOP extinction profiles for medium to high dust optical depth. We conclude that this new method is extremely promising for improving the scientific knowledge about the 3-D distribution of desert dust aerosols in the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Global validation of improved SCIAMACHY scientific ozone limb data using ozonesonde measurements

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 4817-4858
Author(s):  
J. Jia ◽  
A. Rozanov ◽  
A. Ladstätter-Weißenmayer ◽  
J. P. Burrows
Keyword(s):  
Global Scale ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Latitude Range ◽  
Ozone Profile ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Relative Differences ◽  
Significant Underestimation ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. In this manuscript, the latest SCIAMACHY limb ozone scientific vertical profiles, namely the current V2.9 and the upcoming V3.0, are extensively compared with ozone sonde data from the WOUDC database. The comparisons are made on a global scale from 2003 to 2011, involving 61 sonde stations. The retrieval processors used to generate V2.9 and V3.0 data sets are briefly introduced. The comparisons are discussed in terms of vertical profiles and stratospheric partial columns. Our results indicate that the V2.9 ozone profile data between 20–30 km is in good agreement with ground based measurements with less than 5% relative differences in the latitude range of 90° S–40° N (with exception of the tropical Pacific region where an overestimation of more than 10% is observed), which corresponds to less than 5 DU partial column differences. In the tropics the differences are within 3%. However, this data set shows a significant underestimation northwards of 40° N (up to ~15%). The newly developed V3.0 data set reduces this bias to below 10% while maintaining a good agreement southwards of 40° N with slightly increased relative differences of up to 5% in the tropics.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document