Simulating the effect of climate change on the performance of a monolayer cover combined with an elevated water table placed on acid generating mine tailings

Several reclamation approaches were developed in the last decades to control acid mine drainage from tailings storage facilities, including the monolayer cover combined with an elevated water table. Its performance is dependent on water table elevation and tailings saturation, and is directly affected by climatic conditions, therefore climate change needs to be taken into account to design resilient reclamation systems. The objective of this research was to evaluate three approaches to simulate climate change and compare the impact on reclamation performance up to year 2100. Numerical simulations were calibrated using experimental field data and future weather conditions were established based on three climate change scenarios adapted for local conditions. Results showed that the projected impact of climate change varied depending on the approach used. Simpler and more conservative approaches indicated that reclamation would eventually fail following an increase of droughts during future summers. However, 80-year simulations showed that reclamation failures (evaluated as oxygen flux) could be limited to a few isolated summers and that a well-designed monolayer cover with elevated water table appeared to remain efficient in the long-term. Overall, the probability to exceed the oxygen flux target of 1 mol/m2/y did not exceed 2% for the simulated conditions.