Naira Exchange Rate Variation and Nigeria Economic Growth: A Time Series Study

This study examined the effect of exchange rate variation on Nigeria economy. The objective was to investigate how Naira exchange rate variations against key currencies affect the country’s real gross domestic product. Time series data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Real gross domestic products were modeled as the function of United State commodity currency, British commodity currency, Japanese yen currency, Chinese yen currency and French franc currency. The ordinary least square method was used as data analysis techniques. The study used cointegration, unit root, and granger causality test and error correction estimate to study the dynamic effects of commodity currencies on financial market. The study found that naira exchange rate variation with the currencies can explain 65 percent variation on Nigerian real gross domestic products while the remaining 35 percent estimation can be traced to external variables not included in the model. The estimated f-test proved that the model is fit while the estimated DW statistics found the presence of positive serial autocorrelation among the variables. The estimated beta coefficient of the variables revealed that commodity currency of US; Japanese yen and Chinese yen have positive and significant effect on Nigeria real gross domestic products while British pound and French Franc have negative effect on Nigeria real gross domestic products. From the co-integration test, we found at least two co-integrating equation from the trace test and maximum eigenvalue. The granger causality test found unidirectional causality from real gross domestic products to Chinese yen and from French Franc to real gross domestic products. The study found that in the long run, Japanese and Chinese yen and French Franc have negative long run effect on Nigeria real gross domestic products; while United States dollar and British Pound Sterling have positive long run effect on Nigeria gross domestic products. The study recommended amongst others that Monetary and macroeconomic policies should be properly articulated with an impregnable feedback loop, implemented to the letter, and a quarterly examination of the impact on the Naira should be regularly engaged, evaluated, interpreted and ensure that the results and possible remedial action(s) get to the appropriate authority timeously so as to ensure well informed decision(s).

Euro Disney or Euro Disaster?

This case concerns the troubles that Euro Disney experienced from the start. Euro Disney claimed that the major cause of its poor financial performance was the European recession and the strong French franc. The timing of the park's opening could not have been more inopportune. If the recession had been the only cause of Euro Disney's problems, the financial restructuring would only need to carry the park forward to better economic times. Only when Europeans began spending freely again would investors learn the answers to some uncomfortable questions: Was the whole idea of Euro Disney misconceived? Were there other fundamental cultural problems that could inhibit the park's success? Would Euro Disney fail to recover even though other European companies did? And, if so, why was the Disney theme-park concept successful in Japan and not in France?

U.S. Dollar Asymmetry And Exchange Rate Volatility

<span>he paper explores the stochastic behavior of six exchange rates three EMS and three non-EMS during the U.S. dollar appreciation (before 1985) and depreciation (after 1985) using Exponential GARCH-M model. The results showed that high volatility in all rates was present before 1985, increased dramatically thereafter, and decreased later for the non-EMS rates. In general, U.S. dollar depreciations increased the volatility more than appreciations did for the French franc, the Italian lira, and the German mark.</span>

Determining Pak Rupee Exchange Rates vis-à-vis Six Currencies of the Industrial World: Some Evidence Based on the Traditional Flow Model

Pak-rupee exchange rates vis-à-vis many currencies of the industrial world have weakened continuously and persistently since Pakistan abandoned fixed exchange rates in April 1982. This proposition is strongly supported by descriptive test statistics, as shown in Table 1, such as mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of six Pak rupee exchange rates—against the U.S. dollar, British pound, German mark, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and French franc—over the period 1982q1-2000q4. Based on these descriptive statistics, it is evident that Pak rupee has depreciated persistently against all currencies of the industrial countries in question over the period under investigation; for example, it has depreciated by 324.05 percent against the British pound, 406.360 percent against the U.S. dollar, 344.53 percent against the French franc, 498.48 percent against the Swiss franc, 477.78 percent against the German mark and 986.25 percent against the Japanese yen since April 1982. As evidenced by coefficient of variation, Pak rupee has weakened enormously against all currencies of the industrial world, while it has weakened relatively more alarmingly against the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and German mark.