The Markov Model of Labor Force Activity 2012-17: Extended Tables of Central Tendency, Shape, Percentile Points, and Bootstrap Standard Errors

This paper updates the Skoog-Ciecka-Krueger (2011) study which used 2005-09 U.S. population labor force data to estimate worklife expectancies. This update presents estimates using 2012-17 labor force data for persons ages 18 and over by sex and education. These updated estimates are presented as before as a set of worklife tables, including extended probability calculations and other statistical measures useful to forensic economists. Transition probabilities, by age, gender, and education, are contained in the electronic supplementary materials.

The Markov Model of Years to Final Separation from the Labor Force 2012-17: Extended Tables of Central Tendency, Shape, Percentile Points, and Bootstrap Standard Errors

In this paper, we estimate characteristics of years to final separation from the labor force. We use data for the same time period, the same data set, the same education groups for both genders, and similar recursive methods as in our paper on years of labor force activity (Skoog, Ciecka, and Krueger, 2019). Years of labor market activity are a subset of years to final separation from the labor force, with the latter including any years of inactivity that occur prior to final labor force separation. The last set of extended tables for years to final separation from the labor force appeared in 2003 and was based on 1997-98 data (Skoog and Ciecka, 2003).

The Markov Process Model of Labor Force Activity: Extended Tables of Central Tendency, Shape, Percentile Points, and Bootstrap Standard Errors

This paper updates the Skoog-Ciecka (2001) worklife tables, which used 1997–1998 data, and the Krueger (2005) worklife tables, which used 1998–2004 data. The present paper uses data generated by the methodology Krueger devised in his 2003 PhD dissertation. We have pooled the data beginning January 2005 and continuing through December 2009, a period of five years, using observations matched a year apart. Thus, we have roughly four times the data in the first of the previous studies, and about that of the second. We chose this period for a variety of reasons, including recency, business cycle and trend considerations. The result is the most current and disaggregated set of worklife tables, along with extended probability calculations and statistical measures available to forensic economists.