The Markov Model of Years to Final Separation from the Labor Force 2012-17: Extended Tables of Central Tendency, Shape, Percentile Points, and Bootstrap Standard Errors

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 109-195
Author(s):  
Gary R. Skoog ◽  
James E. Ciecka ◽  
Kurt V. Krueger
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Central Tendency ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Labor Force Activity ◽  
Education Groups ◽  
Labor Market Activity

Abstract In this paper, we estimate characteristics of years to final separation from the labor force. We use data for the same time period, the same data set, the same education groups for both genders, and similar recursive methods as in our paper on years of labor force activity (Skoog, Ciecka, and Krueger, 2019). Years of labor market activity are a subset of years to final separation from the labor force, with the latter including any years of inactivity that occur prior to final labor force separation. The last set of extended tables for years to final separation from the labor force appeared in 2003 and was based on 1997-98 data (Skoog and Ciecka, 2003).

The Markov Model of Labor Force Activity 2012-17: Extended Tables of Central Tendency, Shape, Percentile Points, and Bootstrap Standard Errors

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 15-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary R. Skoog ◽  
James E. Ciecka ◽  
Kurt V. Krueger
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Central Tendency ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Gender And Education ◽  
Labor Force Activity ◽  
Force Data

Abstract This paper updates the Skoog-Ciecka-Krueger (2011) study which used 2005-09 U.S. population labor force data to estimate worklife expectancies. This update presents estimates using 2012-17 labor force data for persons ages 18 and over by sex and education. These updated estimates are presented as before as a set of worklife tables, including extended probability calculations and other statistical measures useful to forensic economists. Transition probabilities, by age, gender, and education, are contained in the electronic supplementary materials.

The Markov Process Model of Labor Force Activity: Extended Tables of Central Tendency, Shape, Percentile Points, and Bootstrap Standard Errors

2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary R. Skoog ◽  
James E. Ciecka ◽  
Kurt V. Krueger
Keyword(s):  
Markov Process ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Central Tendency ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Markov Process Model ◽  
Labor Force Activity

Abstract This paper updates the Skoog-Ciecka (2001) worklife tables, which used 1997–1998 data, and the Krueger (2005) worklife tables, which used 1998–2004 data. The present paper uses data generated by the methodology Krueger devised in his 2003 PhD dissertation. We have pooled the data beginning January 2005 and continuing through December 2009, a period of five years, using observations matched a year apart. Thus, we have roughly four times the data in the first of the previous studies, and about that of the second. We chose this period for a variety of reasons, including recency, business cycle and trend considerations. The result is the most current and disaggregated set of worklife tables, along with extended probability calculations and statistical measures available to forensic economists.

scholarly journals Labor Market Dynamics

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (282) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ippei Shibata
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
First Order ◽  
Labor Force Status ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Labor Market Dynamics

This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.

The Potential of College Completion: How Disability Shapes Labor Market Activity Differentially by Educational Attainment and Disability Type

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 213-222
Author(s):  
Erin J. McCauley
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Market Activity ◽  
Intervention Point ◽  
Linear Probability ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Labor Market Activity

I conducted a descriptive analysis of how disability shapes labor market activity differentially by educational attainment and disability type using the American Community Survey, 2015 ( N = 1,504,947) and linear probability models. Having a disability is associated with a decrease in the probability of labor force participation (proportion of those employed or seeking employment; [Formula: see text]) and employment (proportion of those in the labor market who are employed; [Formula: see text]. When differentiated by disability type, education moderates the relationship between disability and labor force participation for all disability types. However, education only moderates the relationship between disability and employment for those with cognitive-, physical-, and mobility-related disabilities (not sensory or self-care). Having a bachelor’s degree is associated with a 30.68% higher probability of labor force participation and a 26.84% higher probability of employment among those in the labor force than having some college, indicating higher education may be a pivotal intervention point. The relationships between disability and labor force participation and disability and employment vary by disability type, as does the role of education.

scholarly journals Effects of Migration Flows on Local Labor Market: A Regional Implementation on Turkey

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atakan Durmaz ◽  
Adem Kalça
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Labor Force Participation Rate ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Local Labor Market ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Work Permit ◽  
Migration Flows

Migration flows are an important research topic in the economic literature due to the economic effects they have on both the homeland and the countries receiving the immigration. Studies on homeland focus on issues such as remittances, foreign direct investment, Technology and knowledge transfers and trade links, while studies on immigrant countries focus on issues such as immigrants' impacts on the local labor market and commercial effects. The aim of this study starting from this point is the recent massive migration flows exposed to these migration flows in Turkey to determine their impact on the local labor market. In the study, the data set covering the period of 2011-2016 was used for 26 sub-regions of Turkey and this was tested using panel data analysis. According to the results, while immigrants with a work permit in Turkey have a statistically significant and positive impact on the women’s labor force participation rate and the total labor force participation rate, there is no statistically significant effect on male labor force participation rates. In other words, according to the results, immigrants with a work permit in Turkey are complementary in terms of local labor force.

Implications of higher retirement age for the labor market

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.

scholarly journals Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Romanian Labor Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 271
Author(s):  
Carmen Valentina Radulescu ◽  
Georgiana-Raluca Ladaru ◽  
Sorin Burlacu ◽  
Florentina Constantin ◽  
Corina Ioanăș ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Semantic Differential ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Unemployed People ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Main Effects ◽  
The Impact

The present research aims to establish the impact that the current crisis situation the planet is facing, namely the COVID-19 pandemic, has had so far on the Romanian labor force market. In this context, given the lack of information and information regarding this pandemic and its effects, the administration of a questionnaire among the population was considered to identify the research results. The method of semantic differential and the method of ordering the ranks were used for the interpretation of the results. With the help of this questionnaire, it will be possible to answer the question of the research in this study: What are the main effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Romanian labor market? The main results showed that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the Romanian workforce; the respondents of the applied questionnaire claimed that they obtained better results and maintained a similar income, but the health crisis also influenced the mentality of employees, with respondents stating that in the event of changing jobs, they would consider it very important for the new employer to ensure the conditions for preventing and combating COVID-19, as well as complex health insurance. However, analyzing at the macroeconomic level, it was found that the COVID-19 pandemic induced an increase in the number of unemployed people in the Romanian labor market.

Origins and Destinations – Social Security Claimant Dynamics

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL NOBLE ◽  
SIN YI CHEUNG ◽  
GEORGE SMITH
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Income Support ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Family Structures ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
Lone Parents ◽  
Lone Mothers ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Short Time

This article briefly reviews American and British literature on welfare dynamics and examines the concepts of welfare dependency and ‘dependency culture’ with particular reference to lone parents. Using UK benefit data sets, the welfare dynamics of lone mothers are examined to explore the extent to which they inform the debates. Evidence from Housing Benefits data show that even over a relatively short time period, there is significant turnover in the benefits-dependent lone parent population with movement in and out of income support as well as movement into other family structures. Younger lone parents and owner-occupiers tend to leave the data set while older lone parents and council tenants are most likely to stay. Some owner-occupier lone parents may be relatively well off and on income support for a relatively short time between separation and a financial settlement being reached. They may also represent a more highly educated and highly skilled group with easier access to the labour market than renters. Any policy moves paralleling those in the United States to time limit benefit will disproportionately affect older lone parents.

scholarly journals Relative Astrometry with Imaging Transit Telescopes

1995 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 9-12
Author(s):  
G. F. Benedict ◽  
J. T. McGraw ◽  
T. R. Hess
Keyword(s):  
Standard Errors ◽  
The Moon ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Existing Data

A CCD/Transit Instrument (CTI) has produced relative astrometry with standard errors less than 2.6% of a 1.55 arcsecond pixel for stars with V ≤ 17. Additional astrometric studies with existing data are required to better understand the ultimate contribution these devices can make to our science.The CTI is presently dismantled, awaiting a move to a new site. We briefly discuss the potential astrometric scientific returns from the exisiting data set, from a refurbished CTI, and from a similar device emplaced on the Moon.

scholarly journals Consistent satellite XCO<sub>2</sub> retrievals from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT using the BESD algorithm

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1787-1832 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Heymann ◽  
M. Reuter ◽  
M. Hilker ◽  
M. Buchwitz ◽  
O. Schneising ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Mean Difference ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Consistent and accurate long-term data sets of global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are required for carbon cycle and climate related research. However, global data sets based on satellite observations may suffer from inconsistencies originating from the use of products derived from different satellites as needed to cover a long enough time period. One reason for inconsistencies can be the use of different retrieval algorithms. We address this potential issue by applying the same algorithm, the Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS (BESD) algorithm, to different satellite instruments, SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (March 2002–April 2012) and TANSO-FTS onboard GOSAT (launched in January 2009), to retrieve XCO2, the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2. BESD has been initially developed for SCIAMACHY XCO2 retrievals. Here, we present the first detailed assessment of the new GOSAT BESD XCO2 product. GOSAT BESD XCO2 is a product generated and delivered to the MACC project for assimilation into ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). We describe the modifications of the BESD algorithm needed in order to retrieve XCO2 from GOSAT and present detailed comparisons with ground-based observations of XCO2 from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We discuss detailed comparison results between all three XCO2 data sets (SCIAMACHY, GOSAT and TCCON). The comparison results demonstrate the good consistency between the SCIAMACHY and the GOSAT XCO2. For example, we found a mean difference for daily averages of −0.60 ± 1.56 ppm (mean difference ± standard deviation) for GOSAT-SCIAMACHY (linear correlation coefficient r = 0.82), −0.34 ± 1.37 ppm (r = 0.86) for GOSAT-TCCON and 0.10 ± 1.79 ppm (r = 0.75) for SCIAMACHY-TCCON. The remaining differences between GOSAT and SCIAMACHY are likely due to non-perfect collocation (±2 h, 10° × 10° around TCCON sites), i.e., the observed air masses are not exactly identical, but likely also due to a still non-perfect BESD retrieval algorithm, which will be continuously improved in the future. Our overarching goal is to generate a satellite-derived XCO2 data set appropriate for climate and carbon cycle research covering the longest possible time period. We therefore also plan to extend the existing SCIAMACHY and GOSAT data set discussed here by using also data from other missions (e.g., OCO-2, GOSAT-2, CarbonSat) in the future.

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