Orphan Imports and Lost Exports in India’s Trade: A Quantitative Assessment of the Significance and Implications for Illicit Financial Flows

Orphan imports and lost exports refer to import and export transactions that have been reported by only one of the two trading partners.They are excluded from computations of trade mis-invoicing based on comparing partner country trade statistics. We show that India’s trade with 19 trading partners over 2000-2018 not only indicates substantial trade mis-invoicing but alsosignificant orphan and lost trade in the commodities displaying mis- invoicing. We also show that the amounts involved show an uptrend and are more pronounced in imports, with the orphan imports recorded by India being more than 15 times the orphan imports recorded by partner countries. Therefore, any conclusion on illicit flows through mis-invoicing in these commodities will be incomplete without analysing the impact of orphan and lost trade. We analyse some possible causes and discuss specific commodity-level examples to demonstrate that orphan and lost trade could not only lead to re-adjustment of computed amounts of trade mis-invoicing but, in the worst scenario, indicate serious fraud, with important implications for illicit flows. The paper’s finding that only a few commodities account for bulk of the amounts in orphan and lost trade could facilitate better analysis and mitigation measures.

Effect of quality of governance on the relationship between illicit financial flows and economic growth

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the study aims to examine the direct effect of illicit financial flows (IFF) and quality of governance (QoG) on economic growth. Second, this study seeks to examine the moderating effect of QoG on the economic consequences of IFF. Design/methodology/approach This study collected data from nine The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries for the period of 10 years from 2008 to 2019. The study concerned an analysis of the testing of a conceptual framework which based on secondary data which may lack a comprehensive substantiation on the grounds of measurement theory. A partial least squares (PLS) modelling using the SmartPLS 3.2.8 version was used as a statistical tool to examine the measurement and structural model. Findings Key findings provide empirical support on the effect of IFF and QoG on economic growth. It also confirmed that QoG significantly moderated the relationship between IFF and economic growth by reducing the negative impact of IFF on economic growth. Practical implications Immediate corrective action needs to be implemented by policymakers of ASEAN countries to strengthen QoG to effectively curb IIF activities. Originality/value This study provides current empirical evidence on the relationship of IFF, QoG and economic growth within ASEAN countries.

FATF mission may find Paraguay corruption worsening

Significance The controversial decision coincided with the start of a major international evaluation of Paraguay’s compliance with international guidelines on combatting illicit financial flows. SEPRELAD head Carlos Arregui has admitted that it is by no means certain that Paraguay will pass the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) exam. Impacts Failure to pass would mean a negative ‘country image’, involving a higher risk premium on government foreign borrowing costs. A negative result would lead to reduced foreign investment inflows, something that the private sector is keen to avoid. The Biden administration will step up pressure for greater Paraguayan vigour in combatting corruption.