Analytical Modeling of the Temporal Evolution of Epidemics Outbreaks Accounting for Vaccinations

With the vaccination against Covid-19 now available, how vaccination campaigns influence the mathematical modeling of epidemics is quantitatively explored. In this paper, the standard susceptible-infectious-recovered/removed (SIR) epidemic model is extended to a fourth compartment, V, of vaccinated persons. This extension involves the time t-dependent effective vaccination rate, v(t), that regulates the relationship between susceptible and vaccinated persons. The rate v(t) competes with the usual infection, a(t), and recovery, μ(t), rates in determining the time evolution of epidemics. The occurrence of a pandemic outburst with rising rates of new infections requires k+b<1−2η, where k=μ(0)/a(0) and b=v(0)/a(0) denote the initial values for the ratios of the three rates, respectively, and η≪1 is the initial fraction of infected persons. Exact analytical inverse solutions t(Q) for all relevant quantities Q=[S,I,R,V] of the resulting SIRV model in terms of Lambert functions are derived for the semi-time case with time-independent ratios k and b between the recovery and vaccination rates to the infection rate, respectively. These inverse solutions can be approximated with high accuracy, yielding the explicit time-dependences Q(t) by inverting the Lambert functions. The values of the three parameters k, b and η completely determine the reduced time evolution of the SIRV-quantities Q(τ). The influence of vaccinations on the total cumulative number and the maximum rate of new infections in different countries is calculated by comparing with monitored real time Covid-19 data. The reduction in the final cumulative fraction of infected persons and in the maximum daily rate of new infections is quantitatively determined by using the actual pandemic parameters in different countries. Moreover, a new criterion is developed that decides on the occurrence of future Covid-19 waves in these countries. Apart from in Israel, this can happen in all countries considered.

Analytical Modeling of the Temporal Evolution of Epidemics Outbreaks Accounting for Vaccinations

With the now available vaccination against Covid-19 it is quantitatively explored how vaccination campaigns influence the mathematical modeling of epidemics. The standard susceptible-infectious-recovered/removed (SIR) epidemic model is extended to the fourth compartment V of vaccinated persons and the vaccination rate v(t) that regulates the relation between susceptible and vaccinated persons. The vaccination rate v(t) competes with the infection (a(t)) and recovery (\mu(t)) rates in determining the time evolution of epidemics. In order for a pandemic outburst with rising rates of new infections it is required that k+b&lt;1-2\eta, where k=\mu_0/a_0 and b=v_0/a_0 denote the initial ratios of the three rates, respectively, and \eta &lt;&lt; 1 is the initial fraction of infected persons. Exact analytical inverse solutions t(Q) for all relevant quantities Q=[S,I,R,V] of the resulting SIRV-model in terms of Lambert functions are derived for the semi-time case with time-independent ratios k and b between the recovery and vaccination rates to the infection rate, respectively. These inverse solutions can be approximated with high accuracy yielding the explicit time-dependences Q(t) by inverting the Lambert functions. The values of the three parameters k, b and \eta completely determine the reduced time evolution the SIRV-quantities Q(\tau). The influence of vaccinations on the total cumulative number and the maximum rate of new infections in different countries is calculated by comparing with monitored real time Covid-19 data. The reduction in the final cumulative fraction of infected persons and in the maximum daily rate of new infections is quantitatively determined by using the actual pandemic parameters in different countries. Moreover, a new criterion is developed that decides on the occurrence of future Covid-19 waves in these countries. Apart from Israel this can happen in all countries considered.

Boundary Layer Theory: New Analytical Approximations with Error and Lambert Functions for Flat Plate without/with Suction

In this work, we investigated the problem of the boundary layer suction on a flat plate with null incidence and without pressure gradient. There is an analytical resolution using the Bianchini approximate integral method. This approximation has been achieved by Lambert or Error functions for boundary layer profiles with uniform suction, even in the case without suction. Based on these new laws, we brought out analytical expressions of several boundary layer features. This gives a necessary data to suction effect modeling for boundary layer control. To recommend our theoretical results, we numerically studied the boundary layer suction on a porous flat plate equipped with trailing edge flap deflected to 40°. We showed that this flap moves the stagnation point on the upper surface, resulting to avoid the formation of the laminar bulb of separation. Good agreement was obtained between the new analytical laws, the numerical results (CFD Fluent), and the literature results.

Siewert solutions of transcendental equations, generalized Lambert functions and physical applications

Several classes of transcendental equations, mainly eigenvalue equations associated to non-relativistic quantum mechanical problems, are analyzed. Siewert’s systematic approach of such equations is discussed from the perspective of the new results recently obtained in the theory of generalized Lambert functions and of algebraic approximations of various special or elementary functions. Combining exact and approximate analytical methods, quite precise analytical outputs are obtained for apparently untractable problems. The results can be applied in quantum and classical mechanics, magnetism, elasticity, solar energy conversion, etc.

Solution of Systems of Linear Delay Differential Equations Via Lambert Functions

A new analytic approach to obtain the complete solution for systems of delay differential equations (DDE) based on the concept of Lambert functions is presented. The similarity to the concept of the state transition matrix in linear ordinary differential equations enables the approach to be used for general classes of linear DDE’s in matrix form. The solution is in the form of an infinite series of modes written in terms of Lambert functions. Results are presented for stability criteria for the individual modes, free response, and forced response in the context of specific examples. This new approach is also applied to the problem of chatter stability in a machining operation on a lathe. The results, since they are only for individual modes, and there are an infinite number of them, represent a necessary condition for system stability.

Analysis of a System of Linear Delay Differential Equations

A new analytic approach to obtain the complete solution for systems of delay differential equations (DDE) based on the concept of Lambert functions is presented. The similarity with the concept of the state transition matrix in linear ordinary differential equations enables the approach to be used for general classes of linear delay differential equations using the matrix form of DDEs. The solution is in the form of an infinite series of modes written in terms of Lambert functions. Stability criteria for the individual modes, free response, and forced response for delay equations in different examples are studied, and the results are presented. The new approach is applied to obtain the stability regions for the individual modes of the linearized chatter problem in turning. The results present a necessary condition to the stability in chatter for the whole system, since it only enables the study of the individual modes, and there are an infinite number of them that contribute to the stability of the system.