Emerging themes in Population Consequences of Disturbance models

Assessing the non-lethal effects of disturbance from human activities is necessary for wildlife conservation and management. However, linking short-term responses to long-term impacts on individuals and populations is a significant hurdle for evaluating the risks of a proposed activity. The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework conceptually describes how disturbance can lead to changes in population dynamics, and its real-world application has led to a suite of quantitative models that can inform risk assessments. Here, we review PCoD models that forecast the possible consequences of a range of disturbance scenarios for marine mammals. In so doing, we identify common themes and highlight general principles to consider when assessing risk. We find that, when considered holistically, these models provide valuable insights into which contextual factors influence a population's degree of exposure and sensitivity to disturbance. We also discuss model assumptions and limitations, identify data gaps and suggest future research directions to enable PCoD models to better inform risk assessments and conservation and management decisions. The general principles explored can help wildlife managers and practitioners identify and prioritize the populations most vulnerable to disturbance and guide industry in planning activities that avoid or mitigate population-level effects.

Behaviour and body patterns of Octopus vulgaris facing a baited trap: first-capture assessment

This study highlights for the first time individual differences in ethology and vulnerability of Octopus vulgaris (i.e. body postures, movements and skin displays) facing passive baited traps. Common octopus exposed to a baited trap during three consecutive first-capture tests exhibited diverse behavioural and body pattern sequences resembling when the octopus searches for and hunts its wild prey. Overall, they first visually recognized new objects or potential preys and rapidly moved out of the den, exploring, grabbing and approaching the trap with the arms (chemotactile exploration), and capturing the bait with the arms and feeding on top over long periods inside the trap. Simultaneously, O. vulgaris displayed diverse skin textural and chromatic signs, the regular pattern being the most frequent and long-lasting, followed by broad mottle, passing cloud and dark patterns. All individuals (n=8) caught the bait at least once, although only five octopuses (62.5%) entered the trap in all three tests. In addition, high variability among individuals was observed regarding behaviour and body patterns during the first-capture tests, which might evidence different individual temperaments or life-history traits. Differences in behavioural responses at individual level might have population consequences due to fisheries-induced selection, although there is a high necessity to assess how behavioural traits might play an important role in life-history traits of this species harvested by small-scale trap fisheries.

Assessing Population-Level Effects of Anthropogenic Disturbance on a Marine Mammal Population

The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) model is a conceptual framework used to assess the potential for population-level consequences following exposure of animals to a disturbance activity or stressor. This framework is a four-step process, progressing from changes in individual behavior and/or physiology, to changes in individual health, then vital rates, and finally to population-level effects. Despite its simplicity, there are few complete PCoD models available for any marine mammal species due to a lack of data available to parameterize many of the steps. Here, we present an application of the PCoD framework for migrating humpback whales exposed to a simulated commercial seismic survey scenario. We approached the framework in two ways; first, progressing sequentially forwards through the steps and basing our assessment on lactating females. This cohort was considered to be the most vulnerable in terms of energetic costs of disturbance, and most likely to influence any change in population growth due to future breeding success. Field measurements of behavioral responses of migrating humpback whales to seismic air guns from a previous study were used to parameterize an agent-based model (ABM). This ABM was used to estimate the probability of response, where a response was defined as a change in the migratory movement of female-calf pairs, and the duration of any resulting delay in migration. We then estimated the energetic consequences of any delay in migration for the lactating females and created population growth models with which to assess any population-level effects. The results of the forwards approach suggested a low potential for population consequences of seismic surveys on migrating humpbacks. Working backwards through the framework, we investigated “worst case” scenarios that could potentially lead to a population-level effect. Here, we started with increasing calf mortality and assumed that an exposure time greater than 48 h would increase mortality risk. We determined the most likely context in which this exposure would occur (resting area) and then tested this context within an ABM. This backwards approach illustrates how the PCoD model can be used to make management decisions regarding animal populations and exposure to anthropogenic stressors.

Epidemie dalekie i bliskie: mór pod piramidami i w wiejskiej chacie w XVI wieku – Mikołaja Krzysztofa Radziwiłła „Peregrynacyja do Ziemi Świętej…" i „Victoria deorum” Sebastiana Fabiana Klonowica – konwencje opisu na tle literatury klasycznej

The aim of the article is to present outlook specificity to the topic of epidemics process described in two works Mikołaj Krzysztof Radziwiłł’s “Peregrination to the Holy Land” and “Victoria deorum” of Sebastian Fabian Klonowic on the background of Thucydides, Lucretius, Ovid and Boccacio. As the contexts are summoned relations of Homer and Virgil. Elements creating convention are following: description of symptoms, treatment attempts, medics’ hopelessness, mass death of population, consequences of social stratification during the plague, an increase of religious worship or escape into hedonistic use of life, loosening moral principles, population migrations, families’ fall, lack of respect for bodies and mass burials. Radziwiłł describes, from a distant perspective, a several-year dynamics of the epidemic’s development largely omitting conventions, Klonowic focuses on its process among the poorer classes, only partially taking up well known plots. Referring to literary tradition, he introduces new ones.

Chronic ocean noise and cetacean population models

Recent years have seen rapid development of tools and approaches to model population consequences of disturbance in several marine mammal populations from high-amplitude, acute sound sources. Ocean noise from shipping and other maritime activities is now recognized as a chronic, habitat-level stressor. In order to understand population consequences of chronic ocean noise to whales and their populations, advances are needed in several key areas, which are explored in this review. One tractable way to predict population-level consequences of noise-mediated disruption of feeding, which can include both behavioural responses and foraging opportunities lost due to acoustic masking. Masking may be defined as both the process and the amount by which the threshold of hearing of one sound is raised by the presence of another. Parameterising any such model requires information on sensitivity and vulnerability of large whales to ocean noise, in which sensitivity is the degree to which marine features respond to a stressor (e.g., behavioural responses to noise or proportional reduction in foraging efficiency due to masking), and vulnerability is the probability that whales are exposed noise to which they are sensitive. Efforts are underway to provide much-needed information on hearing sensitivity in baleen whales, the role of acoustic cues in foraging, and deriving links between long-term variability in prey availability and whale demography. As this information becomes available, we expect rapid advancement on modelling population consequences of acoustic masking in baleen whales, because those efforts can leverage substantial investments in statistical methodological approaches to model population consequences of disturbance. Pathways of effects other than via foraging disruption (e.g., stress hormones affecting reproduction or disease) are possible, but we illustrate potential ways to proceed based on this tractable approach, namely noise-mediated impacts on foraging. This report highlights case studies of local, national, international, and inter-governmental efforts to monitor and reduce the contribution of global shipping to ocean ambient noise. The following outlines approaches that can be used to assess the risk to baleen whale recovery of existing levels of ocean noise, and consequently, predict the benefits likely to arise from reducing chronic ocean noise.