Active learning of continuous-time Bayesian networks through interventions*

We consider the problem of learning structures and parameters of continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) from time-course data under minimal experimental resources. In practice, the cost of generating experimental data poses a bottleneck, especially in the natural and social sciences. A popular approach to overcome this is Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED). However, BOED becomes infeasible in high-dimensional settings, as it involves integration over all possible experimental outcomes. We propose a novel criterion for experimental design based on a variational approximation of the expected information gain. We show that for CTBNs, a semi-analytical expression for this criterion can be calculated for structure and parameter learning. By doing so, we can replace sampling over experimental outcomes by solving the CTBNs master-equation, for which scalable approximations exist. This alleviates the computational burden of integrating over possible experimental outcomes in high-dimensions. We employ this framework in order to recommend interventional sequences. In this context, we extend the CTBN model to conditional CTBNs in order to incorporate interventions. We demonstrate the performance of our criterion on synthetic and real-world data.

Modeling Approaches Reveal New Regulatory Networks in Aspergillus fumigatus Metabolism

Systems biology approaches are extensively used to model and reverse-engineer gene regulatory networks from experimental data. Indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenases (IDOs)—belonging in the heme dioxygenase family—degrade l-tryptophan to kynurenines. These enzymes are also responsible for the de novo synthesis of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+). As such, they are expressed by a variety of species, including fungi. Interestingly, Aspergillus may degrade l-tryptophan not only via IDO but also via alternative pathways. Deciphering the molecular interactions regulating tryptophan metabolism is particularly critical for novel drug target discovery designed to control pathogen determinants in invasive infections. Using continuous time Bayesian networks over a time-course gene expression dataset, we inferred the global regulatory network controlling l-tryptophan metabolism. The method unravels a possible novel approach to target fungal virulence factors during infection. Furthermore, this study represents the first application of continuous-time Bayesian networks as a gene network reconstruction method in Aspergillus metabolism. The experiment showed that the applied computational approach may improve the understanding of metabolic networks over traditional pathways.

Learning Continuous Time Bayesian Networks in Non-stationary Domains

Non-stationary continuous time Bayesian networks are introduced. They allow the parents set of each node in a continuous time Bayesian network to change over time. Structural learning of nonstationary continuous time Bayesian networks is developed under different knowledge settings. A macroeconomic dataset is used to assess the effectiveness of learning non-stationary continuous time Bayesian networks from real-world data.