Actuarial Evaluation of Late Losses: A Chain Ladder Model or a Generalized Linear Model of Rated Loss Increaments with a Poisson Distribution?

This article focuses on the equality of the estimated late losses resulting from the application of the chain ladder model to the estimates obtained on the basis of the incremental development triangle by cross-parameterizing the rated increments of losses with Poisson distributions using the generalized linear model. In this article, the formulas of the chain ladder model are derived by solving the problem of cross parameterization of rated increments of losses. Smaller accounting groups than the risk, along which the development triangle is formed, make conclusions about the possible bases for the sharing of reserves. This issue may be relevant for the further calculation of actuarial premiums.

Spatial Planning for Development with Rational Using Resources and Environment Protection in the Area of Dung Quat - Quang Ngai City - Ly Son Island District, Quang Ngai Province

Spatial planning for economic development with the rational using resources, and environmental protection in the area of Dung Quat - Quang Ngai City - Ly Son Island District is a specified form of the master planning towards sustainable development, cohesive onshore spatial planning and marine spatial onshore, near-shore islands. The planning is done in a way that links the approach of territorial organizations and spatial planning, linking the geographical approach and ecosystem approach. The result is established economic development triangle in the north of Quang Ngai with two mainland poles - Dung Quat and Quang Ngai city and a pole on coastal islands - Ly Son Island, two the development routes and 14 economic development areas with the rational use of resources, environmental protection and ensuring the defense and security.

Credibility for the Chain Ladder Reserving Method

We consider the chain ladder reserving method in a Bayesian set up, which allows for combining the information from a specific claims development triangle with the information from a collective. That is, for instance, to consider simultaneously own company specific data and industry-wide data to estimate the own company's claims reserves. We derive Bayesian estimators and credibility estimators within this Bayesian framework. We show that the credibility estimators are exact Bayesian in the case of the exponential dispersion family with its natural conjugate priors. Finally, we make the link to the classical chain ladder method and we show that using non-informative priors we arrive at the classical chain ladder forecasts. However, the estimates for the mean square error of prediction differ in our Bayesian set up from the ones found in the literature. Hence, the paper also throws a new light upon the estimator of the mean square error of prediction of the classical chain ladder forecasts and suggests a new estimator in the chain ladder method.

Credibility for the Chain Ladder Reserving Method

We consider the chain ladder reserving method in a Bayesian set up, which allows for combining the information from a specific claims development triangle with the information from a collective. That is, for instance, to consider simultaneously own company specific data and industry-wide data to estimate the own company's claims reserves. We derive Bayesian estimators and credibility estimators within this Bayesian framework. We show that the credibility estimators are exact Bayesian in the case of the exponential dispersion family with its natural conjugate priors. Finally, we make the link to the classical chain ladder method and we show that using non-informative priors we arrive at the classical chain ladder forecasts. However, the estimates for the mean square error of prediction differ in our Bayesian set up from the ones found in the literature. Hence, the paper also throws a new light upon the estimator of the mean square error of prediction of the classical chain ladder forecasts and suggests a new estimator in the chain ladder method.

Integral Design for Starting a Culture Change in Dutch Building Design Practice

Since 2001 an ‘integral approach’ to building design has been propagated within Dutch building design practice, through continuously developing ‘learning by doing’ workshops. The organization of workshops started during ‘Integral Design’ project in 2000 that was conducted by the Dutch Society for Building Services (TVVL), the Royal Institute of Dutch Architects (BNA) and Delft University of Technology (TUD). The main focus of the project, which ended in 2003, was to raise the awareness of different disciplines about each others positions and problems in relation to building design, and to give an overview of issues influencing design integration and possible solution directions. The used workshops create a setting where the knowledge can be generated and regenerated in relationship to the knowledge development-triangle, in a realistic setting; the Reflexive Practice. In this paper we will explain the results of workshops, give an overview of participants’ assessments (more than 180 professionals took part in TVVL-BNA-TUD workshops) and reflect on preliminary results / conclusions.