Deriving the 100-Year Total Water Level around the Coast of Corsica by Combining Trivariate Extreme Value Analysis and Coastal Hydrodynamic Models

As low-lying coastal areas can be impacted by flooding caused by dynamic components that are dependent on each other (wind, waves, water levels—tide, atmospheric surge, currents), the analysis of the return period of a single component is not representative of the return period of the total water level at the coast. It is important to assess a joint return period of all the components. Based on a semiparametric multivariate extreme value analysis, we determined the joint probabilities that significant wave heights (Hs), wind intensity at 10 m above the ground (U), and still water level (SWL) exceeded jointly imposed thresholds all along the Corsica Island coasts (Mediterranean Sea). We also considered the covariate peak direction (Dp), the peak period (Tp), and the wind direction (Du). Here, we focus on providing extreme scenarios to populate coastal hydrodynamic models, SWAN and SWASH-2DH, in order to compute the 100-year total water level (100y-TWL) all along the coasts. We show how the proposed multivariate extreme value analysis can help to more accurately define low-lying zones potentially exposed to coastal flooding, especially in Corsica where a unique value of 2 m was taken into account in previous studies. The computed 100y-TWL values are between 1 m along the eastern coasts and a maximum of 1.8 m on the western coast. The calculated values are also below the 2.4 m threshold recommended when considering the sea level rise (SLR). This highlights the added value of performing a full integration of extreme offshore conditions, together with their dependence on hydrodynamic simulations for screening out the coastal areas potentially exposed to flooding.

Distribution of coastal high water level during extreme events around the UK and Irish coasts

The interaction between waves, surges, and astronomical tides can lead to high coastal total water level (TWL), which can in turn trigger coastal flooding. Here, a high-resolution (1.5 km) simulation from a UK-focused regional coupled environmental prediction system is used to investigate the extreme events of winter 2013/4 around the UK and Irish coasts. The aim is to analyse the spatial distribution of coastal TWL and its components during this period by assessing (1) the relative contribution of different TWL components around the coast; (2) how extreme waves, surges, and tide interacted and if they occurred simultaneously; and (3) if this has implications in defining the severity of coastal hazard conditions. The TWL components' coastal distribution in winter 2013/4 was not constant in space, impacting differently over different regions. High (>90th percentile) waves and high surges occurred simultaneously at any tidal stage, including high tide (7.7 % of cases), but more often over the flood tide. During periods of high flood risk, a hazard proxy, defined as the sum of the sea surface height and half the significant wave height, at least doubled from average over three-quarters of the coast. These results have important implications for the risk management sector.

Distribution of coastal high water level during extreme events around the UK and Irish coasts

The interaction between waves, surges and astronomical tides can lead to high coastal total water level (TWL), which can in turn lead to coastal flooding. Here, a high resolution (1.5 km) simulation from a UK-focused regional coupled environmental prediction system is used to investigate the extreme events of winter 2013/4 around the UK and Irish coasts. The aim is to analyse the spatial distribution of coastal TWL and its components during this period by assessing 1- the relative contribution of different TWL components around the coast, 2- how extreme waves, surges and tide interacted and if they occurred simultaneously 3- if this has implications in defining the severity of coastal hazard conditions. The TWL components’ coastal distribution in winter 2013/4 was not constant in space, impacting differently over different regions. High (> 90th percentile) waves and surges occurred simultaneously at any tidal stage, including high tide (7.7 % of cases), but more often over the flood tide. During periods of high flood risk a hazard proxy, defined as the sum of the sea surface height and half the significant wave height, at least doubled from average over ¾ of the coast. These results have important implications for the risk management sector.

Morphodynamic Evolution of Post-Nourishment Beach Scarps in Low-Energy and Micro-Tidal Environment

Beach scarps are commonly associated with nourishment. Large and persistent beach scarps not only affect the performance of beach nourishment, but also are safety hazards to tourists. In this study, the morphological evolution of beach scarps was examined at a nourished beach in a low-energy and micro-tidal environment. Topographic surveys of nine beach profiles were carried out every 3–6 months after nourishment, lasting for nearly 4.5 years, combined with observed and simulated hydrodynamic data. The results showed that beach scarps were extensively developed after nourishment and migrated landward gradually. The formation of beach scarps was attributed to the higher designed berm, while the migration was possibly initiated by the subsequent higher total water level connected with the irregular tides. However, scarps were completely removed by the first post-nourishment severe storm and had been long absent ever since although two other energetic storms approached. This was different from the result of previous studies, which could be attributed to the much gentler upper beach slope. These results highlighted that the first post-nourishment storm played a key role in the evolution of beach scarps at low-energy and micro-tidal nourished beaches. This study also proposed two methods of determining berm elevation in beach nourishment according to China’s experiences, which would be helpful for other countries’ beach nourishment projects.

Ensemble Water Level Prediction System: Improving the Representation of Model Uncertainty

<p>Concern over increased flooding and the need for earlier and more reliable risk forecasts motivate the continued development of operational forecasts of coastal water level. We report here on results from a year long ensemble of total water level forecasts calculated using a dynamical ocean model forced with ensemble atmospheric forcing and tidal boundary conditions. We focus on the east coast of Canada. The domain includes the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Labrador Shelf, the Scotian Shelf, and the Gulf of Maine. The water level ensemble is made of a control and 20 perturbed members. Individual forecasts are produced twice daily for 16 days.</p><p> </p><p>The novelty of the present study is in the exploration of perturbations of the ocean contributions. In addition to examining how uncertainty in atmospheric forcing maps into flood risk, we also explore the feasibility, and impact, of perturbing the ocean tides. We use a recent case study to demonstrate our findings.</p><p> </p>