Confinement, Food security and consumption of subsidized products in Tunisia: Worsening trade deficit

The present paper attempts to know if the confinement in Tunisia has an impact on the consumption of subsidized products and in turn on food security and on the trade balance or not. Firstly, by analyzing the place of subsidized products in Tunisian economy. Then via the determination of limits of confinement in Tunisia specially trade deficit. Finally through the analysis of different problems given by confinement on food security and increased of percentage of cancer. According to our analysis, confinement of COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented economic, food security and financial crisis in Tunisia especially on the trade deficit witch is suffer before of various difficulty. The confinement can be considred a good solution for COVID but it have many limits on food security for Tunisian and on incresed of consumption of subsidized products in Tunisia.

The Impact of Trade Deficit in Nepalese Economy

The objective of this paper is to study and analyze the growth and direction of Nepalese foreign trade along with the causes and recommendations of trade deficit. Efforts have been made to sort out the principal sources of the trade deficit in Nepal. Landlockedness, political instability, lack of export diversification, devaluation of domestic currency, lack of resources, etc. are the major causes of the trade deficit in Nepal. Nepal, being not self-reliant on factors of production, consumer goods and capital goods, needs to import goods from abroad. On another hand, Nepal’s exports are heavily concentrated; both in terms of product and destination. Nepal’s major trading partners are India, China, U.A.E, etc. During the year 2019/20, Nepal exports goods worth RS. 97.71 Billion And import goods worth RS. 1196.80 billion Leading to a trade deficit of Rs.1099.09 Billion. Trade deficit is acting as negative catalyst in the economic growth and GDP of a country. Increased deficit has caused suppressed inflation. Import to export ratio is continuously increasing as demand is increasing and these demands could not be met by the domestic producers. During the year 2019/20, the contribution of trade on GDP of Nepal is 40.65%. No doubt, trade is an engine of economic growth. So, after analyzing barriers in the foreign trade, some of the steps to be taken are recommended which includes the development of competitive ability and enhancement of Human Resources, commodity and market diversification, formulation of strong legal framework and trade policy, incentives for the promotion of export and priority in the agricultural and hydropower sectors.

Effect of Exchange Rate Misalignment on Bilateral Trade Between Kenya and European Union: 2000-2016

The exchange rate is an important variable in international trade because a country's competitiveness is determined by the expectations on how trade reacts to its movements. To orient the economy outwards, Kenya has pursued various measures from the 1990s to the 2000s. Kenya also signed up for nonreciprocal trade with the European Union under the Cotonou agreement. Despite the export-oriented efforts, Kenya's trade has remained skewed towards imports and a widening trade deficit which seems to follow the weakening of the Kenya shilling. The main policy dilemma therefore, is how imports accelerated in an environment of unhindered European Union market access, hence the motivation of this study. The study adopted a dynamic modeling approach since previous and present values affect exchange rate and trade. The results show that the economic fundamentals drive the real exchange rate. In terms of misalignment, the exchange rate is overvalued to a maximum of 5.9 percent and undervalued up to 5.2 percent. The estimated misalignment hurts imports but has a positive, statistically insignificant effect on exports. The results of this study suggest that the monetary authority should ensure the exchange rate remains stable and within the 6 percent range while monitoring all the underlying determinants. Additionally, hedging instruments should be made available and affordable to traders.

Experience in Supporting Industry Development in Japan and Lessons for Viet Nam

Japan is the world's 3rd largest economy with a nominal GDP of USD 5380 billion. Japan's economy has a rapid industrial development process after its defeat in World War II. Vietnam's economy in 2020 will achieve GDP growth of 2.9%, nominal GDP of 300 billion dollars, per capita income reached $2786, if calculated according to purchasing power parity (PPP), the average income of Vietnamese people is about $ 8,500. In 2020, Vietnam has a trade surplus of 19.1 billion USD (an important contribution to this result is the total two-way turnover of 39.6 billion USD, a trade deficit of 1.1 billion USD from Japan. No small contribution to the economic success of Vietnam as a strategic partner of Japan - the third largest economy in the world. Japan is the first country in the G7 group to recognize Vietnam as a market economy and partner, the largest ODA sponsor for Vietnam, the number 1 investor in Vietnam and the 3rd largest trading partner of Vietnam. This paper also refers the lessons learned for Vietnam.

Indonesian Trade Deficit with China: Background and Grey Forecasting

Indonesia's trade balance with China has remained negative since 2010. The current study forecasts Indonesia's trade deficit with China for five years using the Even Grey Forecasting model EGM (1,1,α,θ). The sample was conducted by collecting the data of traded deficits for the past ten years. Data were collected from the official websites of Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics of (BPS), Ministry of Trade, among others. By building upon the literature, the study argues that trade deficits might have occurred from internal and external factors, such as the lack of infrastructure, the depreciation of the Rupiah (Indonesian currency) against the U.S. dollar, and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. Comparative analysis with Linear Regression (LR), Exponential Regression (ER), and Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) revealed the superiority of the grey forecasting model for trade deficit prediction. The study found that the trade deficit was minimum during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also showed an increasing trade deficit in the post-COVID period. The study concludes with some recommendations for Indonesia to minimize the trade deficit.

Competitiveness of Malaysian Fisheries Exports: A Constant Market Share Analysis

Malaysia, one of the global major fish producers, has highly traded fisheries products given its many water bodies. Nonetheless, it faces a serious fish trade deficit, implying that the Malaysian fisheries sector might lose its competitiveness in the global market. This paper adopts a modified constant market share (CMS) analysis, which incorporates a net-share approach index and geometric framework, to measure the export competitiveness of the Malaysian fisheries sector. The findings reveal that half of the fisheries products exhibit optimistic export competitiveness. Malaysia reflects the strongest competitiveness in exporting frozen fish and the least competitiveness in the export of crustaceans. Additional effort and attention on those less competitive groups of aquatic invertebrates, live fish and crustaceans are required to improve the export performance. Application of the modified approach is highly proposed as it is not only a simple measurement that gives relatively more accurate results but also succeeds to overcome inconsistency in the traditional approach. The findings provide evidence of unrealised fish export potential regarding product categories, which helps policymakers, traders and marketers to develop their long-term strategic plans and enhance the export competitiveness of the fisheries sector in Malaysia.

TRADE DEFICIT IN NEPAL: A REVIEW ON CURRENT TRADE DEFICIT, CAUSES AND SOLUTIONS

With globalization, world trade has been growing at a rapid pace. In most developing countries like Nepal, the problem of trade deficit has always been a part of the concern. The objective of this paper is to articulate the historical trend of the trade deficit in Nepal, the major imports and exports, the causes of the trade deficit, and some recommendations to solve the trade deficit. Nepal expanded its trade relationship after becoming a member of WTO on 23rd April 2004. Nepal mainly exports readymade garments, pashmina products, leather products, pulses, handicrafts, spices, medicinal herbs. The main imports are cereals, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, Mineral fuels, oils, iron & steel, plastics, gems, machinery. Major trading partners of Nepal are India, China, the USA, UAE, Canada, Indonesia, Argentina, France, Malaysia, and Ukraine. In the fiscal year 2019/20, imports decreased by 15.63%, and export increased by 0.62%. As a result, the total trade deficit decreased by 16.83%. Landlockedness, higher production cost, political instability, devaluation of currency are the factors impeding Nepal from coming out from the labyrinth of trade deficit. Fortification of the agricultural sector, focus on hydropower, improvement of infrastructures, modified trade policy, prioritization on export potential goods can solve the trade deficit. The country should strive towards specialization, strengthening the rural economy, gaining economies of scale, exploiting entrepreneurial and management skills of the labor force.

Analysis of Household Behavior in Consumption According to Members and Ages and its Impact on Public Consumption of Iraq

Public consumption is one of the main components of the total demand function, which affects economic stability, inflation, unemployment, and the success of monetary and financial policy in achieving its short-term goals. Therefore, household behavior in consumption and analysis of the factors affecting in it, will draw the role of public consumption in stimulating total demand, investment, production, employment, it increases the effectiveness of financial and monetary policy in achieving its goals, or a burden on the macroeconomics, represented by increasing the gap in total demand, imports, trade deficit, imported inflation and unemployment in case that local production does not respond to the increase in public consumption. And from here the study clarifies this economic problem by analyzing and demonstrating the behavior of Iraqi families according to the members and ages in consumption and their effect on increasing the economic burden on the decision-maker in the economic reform of Iraq.

The Families’ Behavior in Consuming Imported Goods and its Relationship to the Trade Deficit in the Iraqi Economy

The Iraqi families ’behaviors in consuming imported goods have affected the treatment or reduction of the severe imbalance between the trade balance deficit and the government budget deficit. furthermore, these consumer behaviors have become an obstacle to the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies (monetary, financial, and commercial) in treating the problem of depletion of foreign reserves and the ineffectiveness of the interest rate and exchange activating bank credit and the prevailing of current spending over investment. Thus decreasing the tax base and the inflexibility of government revenue sources and commodity dumping, and the continuing impact of these economic imbalances (which were created by the accumulation of ineffective economic policies and programs) has led to the inefficiency of treatment and targeted and measures to find solutions to these imbalances and then Activating the local economy. That requires understanding household behaviors in consuming imported goods and identifying the factors affecting these consumer behaviors, which required a survey of (1000) families that included several realistic and hypothetical indicators to determine the general trend and understand these behaviors and then come out with conclusions that contribute to treating the imbalances Economical at its root.

The Tunisian Economics’ Situations After the Revolution of Arab Spring 2011

The Tunisian economic facts after the so-called the Arab spring or social revolution have been marketed by numerous fluctuations and radical changes in the general situation of the management of the administrative affairs of the country. The most prominent of these facts, including the series of chaotic sit-ins and the political and security instability that has increased from 2011 to 2018, note in particular the emergence of the phenomenon of terrorism and assassinations. These negative results are too the expensive cost of the Tunisian national economy, which has been directed, affected by all vital sectors of the country’s economy, especially the tourism, trade and investment sectors. In addition, the increase in excessive wages during the first three years following the revolution and the increasing number of random sit-ins that led to the cessation of the production in the Gafsa phosphate mine and the failure to work for most of the public servants represented negative factors that led to a decline in productivity and an increase in the financial and trade deficit. Thus, the budget deficit and the accumulation of indebtedness represent the main obstacle to achieving social and economic stability.