A Routine Activities Approach to Evidence-Based Risk Assessment: Findings From Two Simulated Phishing Attacks

To assess the efficacy of routine activity theory (RAT) for explaining phishing victimization and guide evidence-based policy, we launched two phishing attacks via a university Listserv ( N = 25,875). The first email offered access to a pdf file; the second offered free concert tickets. Several interesting findings emerged demonstrating phishing victimization results from network users’ routine behaviors. Students were significantly less likely to open the phishing email sharing a pdf but more likely to open the email offering free concert tickets. Moreover, students were mor e likely to click the malicious link embedded within the phishing email in both studies, often using mobile devices. Conversely, employees were more likely to click the link while connected to the university network, thus exposing the network to greater levels of risk. Finally, the email offering concert tickets was opened at a frequency more than double the email containing the pdf. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.

A Tale of Two Theories: Whither Social Disorganization Theory and the Routine Activities Approach?

Social disorganization theory and the routine activities approach have been extensively applied separately as theoretical frameworks for the spatial analysis of crime, with general support. As hypothetical explanations for complex social phenomena, criminological theories can impact how studies are framed and how the crime problem is approached. Thus, it is important to evaluate theories continuously in various geographical, as well as contemporary contexts. This study uses both theories in tandem to examine their ability to explain 2016 property crime in Vancouver, Canada, using 2016 census data. Both theories found moderate support. Of particular note is that all of the variables designated as proxies for ethnic heterogeneity in social disorganization theory were either not statistically significant or negative, consistent with the immigration and crime literature. Additionally, almost all variables, when statistically significant, were found to have consistent results across crime types. These results bode well for the continued use of social disorganization theory and the routine activity approach in spatial analyses of crime.

Is there more violence around schools? Four tests across nine cities

Objectives: Research evidence on schools as a factor in the distribution of neighborhood violence has produced varying and at-times directly contradictory results. Drawing conclusions from existing research is also complicated by data limitations and methodological differences. The present study sought to further research in this area using a novel open-data source.Methods: Police-recorded assault and personal robbery data from nine large US cities were used to test four hypotheses (derived from the routine activities approach) on spatio-temporal patterns of violence around schools. Multi-level Markov Chain Monte Carlo models were used to reflect the clustered structure of the data.Results: The presence of a public secondary (middle or high) school in a census block group was associated with higher daytime assault and robbery counts on weekdays when schools were in session but not on non-school weekdays, and the effect was larger for larger schools. No such relationships were found for elementary schools. However, there were variations between cities, in that there was no effect in one city and the effect sizes in other cities varied substantially.Conclusions: The results were consistent with the routine activites approach, suggesting a role for middle and high schools in the distribution of neighbourhood violence. The differences between cities suggest that studying multiple cities is important in the investigation of crime and place, and that open data may provide a mechanism for overcoming the data-access difficulties that have previously limited multi-city studies of spatio-temporal variations in crime.

Residence-Based Fear of Crime: A Routine Activities Approach

Most fear-of-crime research uses resident’s neighborhood as a key reference location to measure fear, yet the location effects of one’s own dwelling unit on crime-specific fear has not been explicitly studied theoretically in the literature. Drawing upon routine activities theory, this study undertakes an investigation into the levels and determinants of residence-based fear of crime across three racial/ethnic groups—Whites, African Americans, and non-White Hispanics. Data used in the analyses were collected from a random-sample telephone survey of 1,239 respondents in Houston, Texas. The results derived from factor analyses revealed that residents do distinguish between fear in the neighborhood and fear at home. Proximity to motivated offenders measured by perception of crime was found to be the most salient predictor of fear, followed by the measures of target vulnerability and capable guardianship. In addition, residence-based fear varies significantly across racial/ethnic groups. The significance of these findings and the policy implications are highlighted.