Foreword by Guest Editors COL Paul F. Evangelista & LTC James H. Schreiner

This special issue of the Industrial and Systems Engineering Review once again showcases the top papers from the annual General Donald R. Keith memorial capstone conference at the United States Military Academy in West Point, NY. Despite continued COVID restrictions, the truly innovative conference included a mix of in-person presentations with over 50 live and remote judges from across academia and industry to create a high-quality event highlighting the undergraduate student team research. After consideration of over 50 academic papers, the eight listed in this issue were selected for publication in this special issue of the journal. The topics discussed are broad and diverse, however decision support within an uncertain and complex environment emerges as a theme. Much of the work completed by industrial and systems engineers focuses on getting decisions right by means of the tools of our trade. The suite of tools surveyed within these papers represents several state-of-the-art methods as well as time-proven techniques within a unique application domain. Military applications dominated several of the papers. Downey et al. studied massive datasets that represent military operational behaviors in training, seeking to better understand military operational capabilities. Ungrady and Dabkowski tackled the complexities of US Army recruiting through the application of fuzzy cognitive maps, searching for causation. Middlebrooks et al. studied military acquisition system decisions, applying system dynamics modeling. Process improvement represented another sub-theme, with continued focus on decision support. Enos et al. applied lean six sigma techniques to manufacturing processes. Katz et al. explored biomedical machine maintenance scheduling, seeking optimal solutions to a complex scheduling task. Kaloudelis et al. developed a pandemic decision support process for universities. Analytics and machine learning techniques applied to the information domain dominated the third sub-theme. Krueger and Enos developed analytics to support ice hockey strategies. Manzonelli et al. applied natural language processing against information operations, seeking to automate the examination of incredible amounts of narrative data that seek to shape beliefs and attitudes. Please join me in congratulating our authors, especially the young undergraduate scholars that provided the primary intellectual efforts that created the contents of this issue. COL Paul F. Evangelista Chief Data Officer United States Military Academy Taylor Hall, 5th Floor West Point, NY 10996 Email: [email protected] James H. Schreiner, PhD, PMP, CPEM, F.ASEM LTC(P), U.S. Army Associate Professor USMA Academy Professor Director, Engineering Management (EM) Program Department of Systems Engineering Head Officer Representative, Army Softball United States Military Academy Room 420 Mahan Hall West Point, NY 10996 Email: [email protected]

Foresight: a new approach based on the Z-number cognitive map

Foresight has recently emerged as one of the most attractive and practical fields of study, while being used to draw up a preferable future and formulate appropriate strategies for achieving predetermined goals. The present research aimed at providing a framework for foresight with a primary focus on the role of a cognitive approach and its combination with the concept of fuzzy cognitive map in the environments of uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed framework consisted of the 3 phases: pre-foresight, foresight, and post-foresight. The main stage (foresight) focused on the role of imagination and intuition in drawing the future in the experts’ minds and depicting their perceptions above perceptions in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map influenced by variables related to the subject under study in order to determine a preferable future. The use of a Z-number concept and integrating it with fuzzy cognitive maps in the foresight-oriented decision-making space, which was mainly saturated with uncertainty and ambiguity, was one of the main strengths of the proposed framework in the current investigation. The present paper focused primarily on the evolution of expert’s knowledge with regard to the topic of foresight. The role of Z-number in various processes, from data collection to illustration, analysis, and aggregation of cognitive maps, was considered for gaining knowledge and understanding into the nature of future. Moreover, an ultimate objective was realized through identifying, aggregating, and selecting the variables from each expert’s perspective and then the relationship between each variable was determined in the main stage of foresight. Finally, the proposed framework was presented and explicated in the form of a case study, which revealed satisfactory results.

Comparative Study of Artificial Intelligence Techniques for the Diagnosis of Chronic Nerve Diseases

Farming is essential to the long-term viability of any economy. It differs in each country, but it is essential for long-term economic success. Only a few of the agricultural industry’s issues include a lack of suitable irrigation systems, weeds, and plant monitoring concerns as a consequence of efficient management in distinct open and closed zones for crop and plant treatment. The objective of this work is to carry out a study on the use of artificial intelligence and computer vision methods for diagnosis of diseases in agro sectors in the context of agribusiness, demonstrating the feasibility of using these techniques as tools to support automation and obtain productivity gains in this sector. During the literary analysis, it was determined that technology could improve efficiency, hence decreasing these types of concerns. Given the consequences of a wrong diagnosis, diagnosis is work that requires a high level of precision. Fuzzy cognitive maps were shown to be the most efficient method of utilizing bibliographically reviewed preferences, which led to the consideration of neural networks as a second option because this technique is the most robust in terms of the qualifying criteria of the data stored in databases.

Rozmyte mapy kognitywne jako technika prowadzenia ustrukturyzowanej analizy systemowej w obszarze nauk o bezpieczeństwie

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a Technique for Conducting Structured Systems Analysis in the Area of Security Sciences The article aims to present and introduce the main assumptions and procedures for creating fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) in the field of security studies. FCM are a tool for conducting a systematic analysis of phenomena with a complex structure and consisting of many interrelated elements. The text was divided into three main parts devoted accordingly to theoretical premises of the FCM (the system analysis, mental and cognitive maps), the FCM itself, and the procedure for creating and using RMK for analytical purposes.

Addressing critical failure factors and barriers in implementing Lean Six Sigma in Italian public hospitals

Purpose During the past few decades, Lean Six Sigma (LSS) in the health-care sector has received increasing attention from both researchers and practitioners because it plays an imperative role in quality improvement and cost reduction initiatives. Although researchers have often focussed on evidence of model effectiveness through the study of performance indicators, too little attention has been given to the factors that lead to implementation failure and the causal relationships among them. This study aims to investigate the factors that may inhibit the successful implementation of the method by focussing on Italian public hospitals. Design/methodology/approach Through the use of the Delphi technique and fuzzy cognitive maps, this paper derives new and relevant results for researchers, hospital managers and policymakers. Findings The results show the factors with the greatest impact on LSS implementation and provide insight into the causal links and degrees of influence between critical failure factors and performance variables. Practical implications The findings could be considered useful, in particular, to hospital managers and policymakers, who could leverage the suggestions derived from the study to address LSS implementation. Originality/value This work overcomes a gap in the literature related to the absence of studies on the causal relationships between factors that determine the success or failure of LSS implementation.

Global stability of fuzzy cognitive maps

Complex systems can be effectively modelled by fuzzy cognitive maps. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are network-based models, where the connections in the network represent causal relations. The conclusion about the system is based on the limit of the iteratively applied updating process. This iteration may or may not reach an equilibrium state (fixed point). Moreover, if the model is globally asymptotically stable, then this fixed point is unique and the iteration converges to this point from every initial state. There are some FCM models, where global stability is the required property, but in many FCM applications, the preferred scenario is not global stability, but multiple fixed points. Global stability bounds are useful in both cases: they may give a hint about which parameter set should be preferred or avoided. In this article, we present novel conditions for the global asymptotical stability of FCMs, i.e. conditions under which the iteration leads to the same point from every initial vector. Furthermore, we show that the results presented here outperform the results known from the current literature.