scholarly journals Rozmyte mapy kognitywne jako technika prowadzenia ustrukturyzowanej analizy systemowej w obszarze nauk o bezpieczeństwie

Politeja ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5(74)) ◽  
pp. 275-292
Author(s):  
Błażej Sajduk

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a Technique for Conducting Structured Systems Analysis in the Area of Security Sciences The article aims to present and introduce the main assumptions and procedures for creating fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) in the field of security studies. FCM are a tool for conducting a systematic analysis of phenomena with a complex structure and consisting of many interrelated elements. The text was divided into three main parts devoted accordingly to theoretical premises of the FCM (the system analysis, mental and cognitive maps), the FCM itself, and the procedure for creating and using RMK for analytical purposes.

Author(s):  
Osonde A Osoba ◽  
Bart Kosko

Feedback fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) can model the complex structure of public support for insurgency and terrorism (PSOT). FCMs are fuzzy causal signed digraphs that model degrees of causality in interwoven webs of feedback causality and policy variables. Their nonlinear dynamics permit forward-chaining inference from input causes and policy options to output effects. We show how a concept node causally affects downstream nodes through a weighted product of the intervening causal edge strengths. FCMs allow users to add detailed dynamics and feedback links directly to the causal model. Users can also fuse or combine FCMs from multiple experts by weighting and adding the underlying FCM fuzzy edge matrices. The combined FCM tends to better represent domain knowledge as the expert sample size increases if the expert sample approximates a random sample. Statistical or machine-learning algorithms can use numerical sample data to learn and tune a FCM’s causal edges. A differential Hebbian learning law can approximate a PSOT FCM’s directed edges of partial causality using time-series training data. The PSOT FCM adapts to the computational factor-tree PSOT model that Davis and OMahony based on prior social science research and case studies. Simulation experiments compare the PSOT models with the adapted FCM models.


Author(s):  
Márcio Mendonça ◽  
Guilherme Bender Sartori ◽  
Lucas Botoni de Souza ◽  
Giovanni Bruno Marquini Ribeiro

1995 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 375-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. H. Kloosterman ◽  
R. J. Stuurman ◽  
R. van der Meijden

The project “National Groundwater Flow System Analysis” in The Netherlands was initiated in 1991 and will last until 1995. Financed by three Dutch Ministries, the project aims at the mapping of the regional groundwater flow systems to support policy makers at national levels and water/nature resources management. Much emphasis is put on biotic aspects such as the relation between groundwater and patterns in vegetation. The results are used in a detailed flow system analysis of the eco-hydrological valuable drainage basin of the brooks Beerze and Reusel in the southern parts of the country. In this study vegetation patterns and hydrological situations were analyzed in present and in historical settings to unravel the changes in the last decades leading to severe deterioration of habitats and wetlands. Historical data on flora from the beginning of this century on the basis of km-grid cells show a strong relation with the historical exfiltration areas where deep alkaline groundwaters rich in calcium-carbonate emerged. Agriculture and man-made changes to the natural drainage systems have led to diminishing nature values. Combining a sound understanding of the groundwater flow systems and the changes in the last decades produced a number of practical and viable measures to restore historical wetland settings and to preserve existing ones.


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